The Mistake of 1937
Editorial

The Mistake of 1937


By BDN Staff
BDN Staff

The year 1937 has special significance to economists. That is the year the federal government began to reel in spending programs aimed at propping up and stimulating the depressed economy. When the economy again dipped, the lesson learned was that the oxygen mask and IV tube must not be removed just because the patient talks about leaving the hospital.

Earlier this year, Paul Krugman, the Nobel Prize-winning economist and New York Times columnist, boldly maintained that rather than the $1 trillion stimulus plan proposed by the Obama administration, $3 trillion should have been injected into the economy. The stimulus plan that finally passed totaled $787 billion, less than the president wanted.

A second stimulus plan has been discussed, but the political reality is that such a package would die a quick death. Underlying the opposition to further stimulus — whether it be aid to ailing state governments, tax breaks for home buyers or another “cash for clunkers” program — is the federal deficit. The deficit for the 2009 fiscal year that ended Sept. 30 is $1.42 trillion, a record.

Deficits are universally understood to be bad; bad for the economy, bad for the taxpayers who ultimately must retire the accumulating debt, and bad for the elected officials who support them.

But there are times to borrow and spend. Just as an entrepreneur borrows from a bank to launch a business that later reaps profits, the government must spend to spur economic activity which later produces tax revenue.

White House budget director Peter Orszag explained the administration’s thinking to NPR: “We have to realize the appropriate deficit for this year or next year is much different than what the appropriate deficit is out in 2016 or 2017. We are living in exceptional times. The difficulty is that by providing tax relief and additional spending, deficits help to spur economic growth, but then when the situation returns to a more normal environment, the effect flips and becomes adverse. We need to transition from one to the other, and that’s a very difficult line to walk.”

The goal, he continued, is to “be on a glide path” from the 10 percent deficit “to something around 3 percent,” but done in a manner “that avoids the risk of repeating the mistakes of 1937.”

Yet the Wall Street Journal reports the White House Office of Management and Budget “has asked all cabinet agencies, except defense and veterans affairs, to prepare two budget proposals for fiscal 2011 … one would freeze spending at current levels [and] the other would cut spending by 5 percent.”

In 1937, President Franklin Roosevelt faced debt of his own making. President Barack Obama faces a balance sheet he inherited from President George W. Bush that includes two wars ($931 billion to date), tax breaks ($3.9 trillion over 10 years) and a Medicare prescription drug benefit ($400 billion over 10 years). Knowing when to come about — too soon could see the sails lose wind, too late could put the economy on the rocks — may be the biggest decision the president makes.

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Comments
23 comments on this item

Paul Krugman, the Nobel Prize-winner. Ha ha ha. Obama has one too for nothing, so does Jimmy carter, probably the worst of our presidents, and Al Gore with his invented global weather scam, along with Yasasar Ariafat the terrorist, and too Wangari Maathai had claimed HIV/AIDS was "deliberately created by Western scientists to decimate the African population. Don't forget Kofi Annan, who was head of the UN and oil for food scandal. Does anyone see a pattern here?

I really believe that Obama is intentionally trying to break our economy so we'll be forced to scrap the dollar and enter into the world economy. Hmmm. A one-world currency? And a one-world government!? Where has that been predicted? Oh! It's in the Bible. (you know, that book of fairy tales and myths) Obama will make the real Anti-Christ look like everyone's friend.

A one world government? That would make for an interesting dictator/president/monarch/king election campaign. Would a muslim leader win? would hugo chavez pull it off? Would the mayor of Guam be the next world supreme being? Look out...the Pope could get the nod. BDN should do an editorial on this. lol

Honest to God EJ. Did you think Obama was the anti christ even before he was elected? That's what I've heard from one of my fundamentalist friends even before the man set foot in the white house. Oh no, you said he is even worse than the anti christ. Sounds like you're a solid american who believes in liberty and justice for all, and a fair and equal society.

Next stimulus? Give every American taxpayer a $50,000 tax-free check.

not a bad idea

The reason the Great Depression lasted SO long is exactly because FDR spent, spent, spent! The answer is to put MORE money into PEOPLE's pockets instead of government's pockets. Government creates nothing lasting, only more dependency, higher taxes, and inflation. Government should GET OUT OF THE WAY and let the people do what they do best instead of robbing them every chance it has.

One of America's greatest presidents (no not Jimmy Carter) said," government is not the solution, government is the problem". RReagan. Amen!!

NEWS FLASH - - -

US debt to hit $20 trillion by 2020 -

"Forecasts published this week by the Obama administration and the

Congressional Budget Office (CBO) estimate that the US national debt

will nearly double over the next 10 years to about $20 trillion."

The current national debt stands at over $12 trillion.

"The Obama administration, politicians of both major parties and media commentators

immediately seized on the forecasts to step up demands for major cuts in social spending,

especially for Medicare, Medicaid and Social Security, while disregarding costly fiscal burdens

such as the Pentagon budget, the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan, Bush-era tax cuts for the wealthy,

and the multi-trillion-dollar bailout of the finance industry.

As the White House Office of Management and Budget (OMB) and CBO forecasts make clear,

these policies have combined with the economic slump to trigger a GRAVE fiscal crisis for the US.

This year’s deficit, $1.58 trillion, is 11.2 percent of the nation’s gross domestic product (GDP),

the largest deficit as a proportion of GDP since 1945, the last year of World War II.

For the fiscal year 2010, borrowing will have to provide 40 percent of all government revenue."

Does this sound SUSTAINABLE to anyone with a clear head ?

Wrong direction to be going in.

GENERATION DEBT.

8:03 pm<>EJP ya got me a little confused there friend

Ya say the Bible predicts this

But ya also say you do NOT support IT<<

Am I going crazy or does anyone else Question THIS<<

I know I`m not the brightest bulb on the block

But is that NOT also A EJP Oxymoron<

If such Government borrowing was put to use in the private sector it would do much to spur economic growth. The problem is the stimulus spending is being aimed at the growth of government. Best example of what I am saying is the 3rd quarter GDP increase of 3.5%. This number is made up of 3 components... 1 consumer spending (down) 2 Business investment (down) 3 Government growth (way up). All that has been done is to grow the monster that needs to be fed and at the same time reducing the tax base from which the food for the beast must come.

As for Paul Krugman (the Economic darling of the Left), If he so bright perhaps he could impart some economic wisdom to his employers at the NY Times to help them out of their self created economic woes. As for his " Nobel Prize" winning ... that award does not carry as much honor with it as it once did. It is now seen simply as one left wing group giving an award to another member of the club. You know what I mean. like Presidednt Obabma receiving his for accomplishments in only 30 days in office.

"EJParsons" where do you come up with these ideas?

I am starting to think quite a few people out there believe that this country has been taken away from them by a boogey man. Did the Bible predict all this?

Like these people will make a single hard decision when it comes time to pay for this party? You're kidding, right?

Maybe the federal government should ban Speculation and derivatives

Honest to God EJ. Did you think Obama was the anti christ even before he was elected? That's what I've heard from one of my fundamentalist friends even before the man set foot in the white house. Oh no, you said he is even worse than the anti christ. Sounds like you're a solid american who believes in liberty and justice for all, and a fair and equal society

---------------------------------------------------------------------------------

George W Bush is the Anti Christ

No, susanb, Obama's not smart enough to be the Anti-Christ.

Patycat - I thought US History was a required course for graduation. Maybe things have changed more than I thought.

The only reason the Great Depression truly ended was the attack on Pearl Harbor (I'm not enough of a conspricacy fanatic to beleive that it was by design, it looks like pure, dumb luck).

However, things were coming back anyway, slowly. My Dad bought a house and a car in the late '30s (car was sold in '42 becasue of tire rationing). Stability of his job probably had more to do with it.

Bring back the CCC!

(Civilian Conservation Corps)

Have you no pride? Paul Krugman the Former ENRON employee

Decades ago, reading the daily newspaper in a major Eastern US city, I believed that newspaper editorials were well-researched and unbiased looks at major issues of the day. Such reporting is beneficial to readers. However, I find that BDN editorials are consistently inaccurate and highly political. Each day provides a new opportunity to experience the drivel BDN tries to feed its readers through ill-informed editorials. I have enjoyed reading daily newspapers all my life, but BDN is so bad that I'm going to cancel my subscription.

The Great Depression was prolonged by government 'stimulus.' Japan just followed this failed policy since 1989 and has been rewarded with a stalled economy. Jobs and prosperity are created in the private sector. Even China has learned this lesson after decades of a government-planned economy.

I have worked for the federal government for three decades including time on Capitol Hill. I have also worked for multi-national private companies. Rest assured, the government wastes money on a consistent basis. In particular, when there's a large chunk of money such as stimulus funds to be spent in a short time, there's tremendous waste and inefficiency. I have seen many tens of millions spent on highly questionable projects. The federal government really doesn't know how to distribute these funds like the free market. A lot of half-baked iniitiatives will be funded because bureaucrats are under pressure to distribute money within a short time. These bureaucrats aren't risking their savings or future with their choices. The government's job is to create an environment of confidence for private investors risk and invest funds, not to determine investments. The government cannot outlaw the business cycle either. There will always be booms and busts regardless of government intervention.

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