Poll: Collins has strong lead; Allen camp says race much closer
9/26/08 | 17 comments
Campaign 2008

Poll: Collins has strong lead; Allen camp says race much closer


By Jeff Tuttle
BDN Staff

A new poll suggests Republican Susan Collins is a strong favorite over Democrat Tom Allen in the race to retain her U.S. Senate seat.

The poll, conducted by SurveyUSA for WCSH 6, WLBZ 2 and the Bangor Daily News, found support for Collins at 55 percent and Allen, the 1st District congressman, at 39 percent if the election were held today.

The poll surveyed 675 likely Maine voters. It has a 3.8 percent margin of error.

Upon reviewing the numbers, a spokeswoman for Allen’s campaign said she believed they did not accurately reflect the tightness of the race.

“Reliable polling conducted internally shows this race to be very much in play and far closer than those margins,” Allen spokeswoman Carol Andrews said in a statement released Thursday.

“We are confident that the people of Maine want change and are beginning to realize that voting for Tom Allen is the way to begin solving our economic, health care and energy crises, to begin bringing our troops home from Iraq and to take care of our people here at home.”

The Collins camp welcomed the numbers, which her spokesman said demonstrated Mainers’ respect for the moderate lawmaker who has held the seat since 1996.

“It’s clear Maine people appreciate her hard work and aren’t swayed by negative and false ads that aim to distort her real record of accomplishment for our state,” Collins spokesman Kevin Kelley said.

The new poll comes as Allen’s campaign releases a television ad today highlighting the major differences between his record in the House and that of the incumbent senator.

The 30-second spot, “Big Differences” is set in a Lewiston town hall. In the ad, Allen stresses that the race with Collins isn’t personal, but “about old ideas or new ideas.”

The campaign has been a closely watched one, but the University of Maine’s Amy Fried said Allen’s attempts to draw distinctions between himself and Collins may be coming too late.

“They should have been drawing contrasts early on, instead of featuring the biographical ads for most of the summer,” Fried said, “It’s a little late to start defining your opponent now.”

Fried said the SurveyUSA results reinforced the long-held political notion that unseating an incumbent is a daunting task — even for another well-known and popular lawmaker.

Fried pointed to Collins’ high level of support among those who don’t identify with a political party or ideology as a particular problem for Allen.

Of those who said they were political moderates, 54 percent favored Collins. Forty-three percent favored Allen.

Independents, or those not enrolled in a political party, favored Collins 57 percent to 39 percent.

“We can’t say what people are thinking, but … it certainly means [Collins] is not seen as terribly conservative,” Fried said.

Collins did poll well among conservatives, and Allen polled strongly among liberals. Seventy-eight percent of conservatives favored Collins. Eighty-one percent of liberals favored Allen.

Also, 24 percent of Democrats favored Collins compared with 15 percent of Republicans who favored Allen.

Geography also had little impact on whom voters preferred. Collins led in both the north and south of the state by margins mirroring her overall lead, according to the poll.

Allen did fare better among abortion-rights voters with 52 percent favoring him and 45 percent Collins.

Collins held a lead among both men and women, although men were more supportive. Among men, she led Allen 59 percent to 38 percent with 3 percent undecided. Among women, the margin was tighter, at 51 percent to 40 percent with 8 percent undecided.

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Comments
17 comments on this item
On 9/26/08 at 5:18 AM, tewhiti wrote:         Repeated separate thumbs down will cause comment to be hidden

This race is closer than it seems because Republicans are not going to turn out and vote, while Democrats will crawl through broken glass to put an end to these insane Bush policies. Senator Collins has aided and abetted Bush in his budget blow out, despite moderates like Senator Snowe sounding a warning from the beginning.

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On 9/26/08 at 7:13 AM, Mainecommenter wrote:         Repeated separate thumbs down will cause comment to be hidden

With Allen being both bland and extremely liberal, it's strangely like the '94 Snowe/Andrews race. He never had a chance.

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On 9/26/08 at 7:23 AM, kylie00 wrote:         Repeated separate thumbs down will cause comment to be hidden

I`m not a big Collins fan but Allen doesn`t belong in public office. After his open opinion on unions being forced on non willing employees and companies and taking away the secret ballot( where no one but you knows how you voted with the national relations board running the election. Maybe a better place would be the Teamsters. At least Collins wants the election of a union to be fair and no pressure when you vote from union or anti-union supporters ( same as a general election that`s a secret ballot) VOTE NO ON ALLEN

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On 9/26/08 at 8:03 AM, mrclam wrote:         Repeated separate thumbs down will cause comment to be hidden

I'm putting in a write in vote for Donald D. Duck. I know he will do a better job than either of these pontificating nitwits.

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On 9/26/08 at 8:23 AM, FrankfromBrewer wrote:         Repeated separate thumbs down will cause comment to be hidden

What a shame. I was hoping to see the people of Maine be more compassionate and give this poor woman a break before she cracks under the strain. How could anybody ask more of her. Give her at least a 1 term, 6 year rest to resusitate and re-energize. She has done so much already. God knows she will never run out of breath!

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On 9/26/08 at 9:20 AM, ckc1996 wrote:         Repeated separate thumbs down will cause comment to be hidden

Tewhiti,

The Democrats have been in charge of congress since the 2006 mid-term elections, this is a fact.

Susan Collins is about as close to center as a politician can get.

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On 9/26/08 at 9:29 AM, cspanner wrote:         Repeated separate thumbs down will cause comment to be hidden

The Allen people like to say that he's behind in the polls because "people don't know Tom yet." I think it's just the opposite. He's been in office 12 years and people know all they need to know about him. What has he DONE? Nothing. What does he stand for? Who knows? Nice guy, no action.

Susan Collins shows up (every day), works hard, writes laws, gets them passed into law. Allen -- who by the way, couldn't find the Second District without a GPS -- hasn't done a thing in 12 years except vote the way his leadership tells him.

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On 9/26/08 at 9:29 AM, Mark44 wrote:         Repeated separate thumbs down will cause comment to be hidden

My vote is for Collins!

Better on Small Business-

Better on Senior Affairs-

Better on Military Affairs-

Better on Economics-

Better for Maine!

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On 9/26/08 at 9:56 AM, Timmie wrote:         Repeated separate thumbs down will cause comment to be hidden

This poll is reassuring. The Democratic registration numbers exceed that of the Republicans, so this poll shows that a majority of the Maine electorate has reasoned their way through these two candidates and are not voting blindly or as they are told. There's no other conclusion.

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On 9/26/08 at 10:06 AM, rockstars wrote:         Repeated separate thumbs down will cause comment to be hidden

Collins has voted with Bush 80% of the time. Bush came into office with a huge surplus in the treasury. Now the defecit is such that Wall street is going to crash...with the dollar behind it. So why is that good for America? Socialist for the the rich....not even democracy for the poor. Look at the aftermath to Katrina. That was genocide. Nobody wins with Collins excepte the super rich.

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On 9/26/08 at 11:05 AM, mariahstorm wrote:         Repeated separate thumbs down will cause comment to be hidden

susan has my vote.... not into the zionists and gays and socialists in the allen camp!!! that is what needs to be stamped out before it infests our morals and values any more than it has already!!!!! go susan....

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On 9/26/08 at 11:45 AM, glenna wrote:         Repeated separate thumbs down will cause comment to be hidden

Susan has my vote, too! She's a rational, intelligent, compationate human being. Too bad McCain didn't choose her for a running mate instead of that nitwit who knows nothing. So - as a voter who votes based on the PERSON and not the party, I'm voting for the thinkers with broad-based knowledge who will do the best thinking and bring the wisest solutions for all of us - Sure ain't gonna include Allen.

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On 9/26/08 at 4:11 PM, jenstone143 wrote:         Repeated separate thumbs down will cause comment to be hidden

To the chicken that posted at 10:06 am: You need to go back to school & take some classes in political science, government & economics. First off...George Bush has no vote! (DUH) AND We have not NOT had a national debt in this country since that one month in January of 1835...and that didn't last long. You can't blame the world's ills or our nations, on one man...who by the way has limited powers...take a look at the dimwits in Congress...take a look at the dimwits we are bailing out....last time I looked George Bush wasn't GOD. Susan Collins has my vote!

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On 9/26/08 at 5:42 PM, SteveyDee wrote:         Repeated separate thumbs down will cause comment to be hidden

Is it true there could be an electoral college tie? And if so the VP( Mr. Cheney) gets the deciding vote? Would that be funny or what?

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On 9/26/08 at 8:07 PM, glenna wrote:         Repeated separate thumbs down will cause comment to be hidden

Cheny getting the deciding vote? NO, THAT WOULD NOT, NOT, NOT BE FUNNY. Take that man hunting somebody.

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On 9/26/08 at 8:17 PM, SteveyDee wrote:         Repeated separate thumbs down will cause comment to be hidden

I heard it can happen and is a good possibility. Remember don’t piss Cheney off or you get shot. Is this true old knowledgeable one (John) that the electoral vote can tie?

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On 9/27/08 at 6:21 AM, Mainer50 wrote:         Repeated separate thumbs down will cause comment to be hidden

I didn't know that hate was so christian? I guess then I'm not a christian. Acceptance of others that are different is only common sense, but then I've learned that common sense has died. Collins said that she would term limits, what happened to that "promise"?

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