LOS ANGELES — Two years ago, driven by anti-Obama passion, Republicans stormed the polls, punishing Democrats in a rout that delivered control of the House and swept hundreds of GOP candidates to victory across the country.
But now that Republicans are picking a candidate to face the president in November, the anti-Obama fervor appears to be cooling.
Opinion surveys show the incumbent remains highly unpopular with Republicans and the tea party wing of the GOP. But in virtually every presidential nominating contest so far, Republican turnout has fallen compared with four years ago, suggesting, at the least, a lessening of the intensity that helped fuel the party’s midterm landslide.
Analysts caution against drawing overly broad conclusions; a depressed turnout in the primary season does not automatically translate to reduced interest in the fall campaign. And with the nominating contest suddenly more competitive after Rick Santorum’s three-state sweep last Tuesday, interest could pick up and drive more people to vote, starting with the primaries Feb. 28 in Arizona and Michigan.
But if the pattern continued, it would mean Republicans couldn’t simply sit back and count on supporters to swarm the polls in November out of eagerness to drive President Barack Obama from office.
“It’s a warning sign,” said Michael McDonald, a George Mason University political science professor and expert on voter turnout.
While the Republican race has been marked by any number of twists, the decline in turnout has been consistent from the first contests in Iowa and New Hampshire, with the number of self-identified Republican voters falling everywhere but South Carolina. That burst of enthusiasm followed two closely watched debates and 11 days of fierce campaigning. But it failed to carry forward.
Turnout has fallen in every contest since: down 14 percent in Florida, 26 percent in Nevada, 6 percent in Colorado, 23 percent in Minnesota and 58 percent in Missouri — a fact the Obama camp was eager to highlight. “Republicans’ consistently low turnout shows that they are voting with their feet and staying home,” Joel Benenson, an Obama pollster, asserted in a memo to reporters.
Part of the reason may be the unremittingly harsh tone of the GOP nominating contest, since the very intent of negative ads is to depress turnout.
But another reason may by a distinct lack of excitement surrounding the front-runner, Mitt Romney, who has struggled to consolidate support behind his candidacy even after convincing wins in New Hampshire, Florida and Nevada. His performance last Tuesday, losing Colorado, Minnesota and Missouri to Santorum, a former senator from Pennsylvania, kept Romney from wrapping up the nomination as quickly as strategists hoped and means the nominating fight will go on for weeks, if not months.
There is a notable exception to the downward trend, which offers little solace to the former Massachusetts governor: While overall Republican turnout has fallen, in at least two states, Colorado and Florida, it rose in areas where Santorum and former House Speaker Newt Gingrich fared best.
That suggests that while conservatives are eager to vote for candidates they believe share their values and convictions, there is less enthusiasm for Romney, whom many — especially social conservatives — consider less attuned to their views.
Neil Newhouse, a Romney pollster, professed not to worry. “Participation in presidential primaries is driven by close contests with multiple candidates vying for the vote,” he said in an email, citing Florida as an example. “Two of the four candidates weren’t even in the state when the polls closed.”
McDonald, the professor who sees warning signs for whomever Republicans nominate, agreed there was no need for Republicans to panic — at least not yet.
“There’s ample opportunity to correct course,” he said. “That’s what this extended primary season is all about: making the candidates into better candidates and making their campaigns function more efficiently.”
All the Special Interest groups are fiquereing out that they have been had by the Corporate Faction of the Republicans!
None of them want Romney but the Corporatist Group!!!
And the corporate group wont do a thing for the rest!
Religion, Guns, Liberty are all just Talking points for votes!
Its is all Hat and No Cattle for everyone but the 1 % ers!
This is not an article that my friendly foes will enjoy reading. But it’s also a fact. If the numbers are not turning out, there’s a reason. Now, I don’t know if it’s just apathy or disregard, but I doubt it.
It you ask me, I think that the republicans are getting very frustrated with the Tea Party and their tactics. I think that they are upset, at their own party for allowing such extremism and feel that their party is being undermined and misrepresented by this confrontational group and that they do not represent mainstream republicans.
With that, the numbers are down, and that’s not good for any of their candidates. I would not be surprised in the least if the Governor had at least one challenger in a primary the next gubernatorial election.
This low turnout is easy to explain. Just look at what’s happened here in Maine. Paul LePage comes into office and does absolutely nothing but badmouth our State and most all (Not the top 1% of course) our citizens. Couple that with some really embarrassing statements and hiring his daughter on the taxpayer’s dole and guess what you get, no matter what your political affiliations may be?
TURNED OFF!
Folks simply don’t like what they’re hearing and being forced to endure at the hands of Republicans/Tea Party members. Expect this trend to continue until the public has a chance to make corrections.
The GOP is planning a sneak attack and will take the WH in Nov.
It appears to have been vacant for more than three years.
Who’s gonna take it? Paul Le Page and Newt? Sneak attack!? ha, ha, ha……you can’t even decide on a winner in THIS state, have fun with your sneak attack. You have a problem, it’s a great big feastering boil called the Tea Party.
If I were Mitt Romney, I wouldn’t want Charlie Webster announcing anything on my behalf, even if it was an introduction to an arrival!
Good luck with creepy Sick Rantorum or RINO Romney .. the truth is Libertarians, Ron Paul supporters, and Fiscal conseratives will leave the GOP in droves come November that will resemble the annual migration of the African Wildebeest. Karl Rove was too cute by half.
It’s simple. The Moderate’s of the GOP finally woke up and realized just what a mess they had been lead into by the Radical Right and the Tea Party and finally said ‘ENOUGH’. That it took them going thru Rick Perry, Herman Cain, Michelle Bachmann and Donald ‘The Voice’ Trump is at the very least a positive sign that reality is returning to the GOP. I just can’t wait until the rest of them finally run out of gas and are seen for what they are, namely a bunch of egotistical and theocratic radical’s that believe that their ‘Way’ is the only ‘Way’. Given Santorum’s recent message, I for one am waiting for him to come to Maine and walk across Portland’s Harbor to South Portland to prove that his message is the ‘True Message’. As for Paul, well, he provides a good distraction from the Mitt and Newt Show. If it weren’t so sad I’d be looking for the whole GOP field to appear on SNL for a press conference. Oh wait, didn’t that happen with Rick Perry at the 1st GOP Debate ?
The Old School GOP lie and don’t want newbies treading on their $$$ turf. It’s all about the money… We will have to start over until they get the message.
It’s funny how, when they take a poll and ask if people would vote for an unnamed republican or Obama, the poll always shows the unnamed republican gets more votes… but then, when they give that unnamed republican a name and a face, the polls show that, for some reason, Obama does better. I wonder what that means?
Don’t mistake lack of enthusiasm for lack of resolve.
People don’t care who wins, only whether they can defeat Obama. It’s beginning to look like Ronald Reagan’s corpse would be more attractive than the current incumbent.
Republicans will turn out and support ANYONE who becomes the party’s nominee. And just wait until after the super PACs on both sides weigh in with the negative messages. By next January, no one will speak to anyone on the “other” side.
That would be risky, because the consequences could be very dated.
When it comes right down to it though, we will all support anyone over Obama.