AUGUSTA, Maine — Maine legislative primaries are often easy to overlook, but the 10 Maine Senate nominations to be decided on June 14 will either alter the campaign calculus for determining control of the next Senate or pick runaway general election favorites.
Six primaries could alter campaigns in districts that may see nip-and-tuck races in November.
— Sen. Earle McCormick, R-West Gardiner, is leaving his seat, with Gardiner City Councilor Maureen Blanchard facing retired U.S. Navy Rear Adm. Bryan Cutchen of West Gardiner in the Republican race.
Former U.S. Senate nominee Shenna Bellows of Manchester is running against Gardiner City Councilor Terry Berry in the Democratic primary.
McCormick is backing Blanchard in the Republican race. She may have an advantage because Cutchen, who grew up in Brunswick, just recently moved back to the area after three decades away during his service. The seat hasn’t been won by a Democrat since 2004. But the district leans slightly Democratic, and that party may have a good chance this year.
Bellows entered the race after McCormick decided against seeking re-election, after Berry and another Democrat, George O’Keefe of Winthrop. O’Keefe dropped out to endorse Berry, who figures to have strong local support. But Bellows is perhaps the best-known Senate challenger this year and is backed by former Sen. Sharon Treat of Hallowell and the Sierra Club — an indicator of support from the state party establishment.
— Sen. Linda Baker, R-Topsham, faces a primary challenge on her right from Guy Lebida of Bowdoin. In 2014, Baker ousted Democrat Eloise Vitelli — who’s running again this year — by five points in a race in which a Green Party candidate got 10 percent of votes. Baker has been a moderate in the Senate, voting to allow asylum seekers to get General Assistance — a stance Lebida has criticized her for, telling the Lincoln County News that “some people run under the wrong party.” But if he wins, a Democratic pickup may be more likely in a district that leans Democratic by three points.
— Rep. Ricky Long, R-Sherman, is running against Presque Isle City Council Chairwoman Emily Smith for the seat now held by Sen. Michael Willette, R-Presque Isle. Long, a logger, is a fringe conservative who sponsored bills to study splitting Maine into two states and ban Agenda 21, a nonbinding set of planning recommendations from the United Nations that has spawned a conspiracy theory that it’s an effort to erode property rights.
Smith runs a large family broccoli farm. She may be the better candidate to beat Democrat Michael Carpenter, a former attorney general who nearly won the seat in 2014 despite a district that leans Republican by nine points.
— Sen. Brian Langley, R-Ellsworth, may face a rematch against Democrat Ted Koffman of Bar Harbor, the former executive director of the Maine Audubon Society who lost in 2014 by 10 points. But Koffman will have a primary against Surry nurse Moira O’Neill, who went through Emerge Maine, which trains Democratic women to run for office.
Preventing a fourth and final term for Langley, who has a moderate reputation and clout on education issues in Augusta, will be a tough task for either, even in a district leaning slightly Democratic.
— Rep. Joyce Maker, R-Calais, is running against Calais City Councilor Billy Howard for the seat to be vacated by Sen. David Burns, R-Whiting. The district leans Republican by three points, but Democrat Rock Alley of Jonesport, the president of the Maine Lobstering Union, is seen as a good candidate.
The four winners of Democratic primaries in heavily Democratic districts should win Senate seats in November.
Two Democratic open-seat primaries in Maine’s two biggest Democratic districts — in and around Portland, where incumbents were elected by more than two-thirds in 2014 — are virtual locks to decide the November race.
— Reps. Diane Russell and Ben Chipman are running alongside Dr. Charles Radis for the eastern Portland seat now held by term-limited Senate Minority Leader Justin Alfond. Russell and Chipman are the favorites. They’re not much different on policy: Both are progressives who backed presidential underdog Bernie Sanders and opposed a plan to close a city health clinic.
— Rep. Mark Dion of Portland is facing City Councilor Jill Duson and former Rep. Ann Peoples of Westbrook for the seat held by Sen. Anne Haskell, a veteran lawmaker who chose not to seek re-election. Haskell has backed Duson, a 12-year councilor who may be favored. But Dion, a third-term lawmaker and former Cumberland County sheriff can’t be counted out. Peoples served four terms in the House.
— In a battle between Saco’s old and new guard, Reps. Barry Hobbins and Justin Chenette of Saco are running for the seat to be vacated by Sen. Linda Valentino in a district where Democrats outnumber Republicans by nearly 11 percentage points.
Hobbins is a former legislative leader in his 26th year of service in Augusta who has been a key Democratic emissary to Gov. Paul LePage, while Chenette is 25 years old and has tweaked party leaders with bids to weaken leadership political action committees. While Hobbins has held the seat before, Valentino has endorsed Chenette.
— Sen. Susan Deschambault of Biddeford — who won her seat in a March special election — will face former Mayor Joanne Twomey in the primary. Deschambault was picked as the special election nominee over Twomey by the county party committee in February. Democrats have a 16-point edge on Republicans in the district. Twomey is an eccentric figure now best-known for tossing a jar of Vaseline toward LePage in 2015. Deschambault should win.