AUGUSTA, Maine — The run-up to Maine’s primary elections Tuesday has been mostly quiet, but a small group of voters is set to decide four key questions that could have implications in November and beyond.
The Maine secretary of state’s office predicts between 12 percent and 15 percent turnout for the primary elections, with spokeswoman Kristen Muszynski saying turnout totals will be uneven, depending on key races in different areas.
Here are the questions we’ll be answering Tuesday.
Who will Republicans pick to face U.S. Rep. Chellie Pingree?
The Republican primary in Maine’s 1st Congressional District between North Yarmouth attorney Ande Smith and Brunswick counselor Mark Holbrook hasn’t gotten a lot of attention.
That’s because whoever wins almost certainly will lose to Pingree, a Democrat running for a fifth term this year after winning 60 percent of votes in 2014 — a big Republican year — over two conservative challengers.
On Friday, the race got strangely nasty. Smith’s campaign issued a statement criticizing Holbrook for not shaking his hand after a debate, and Holbrook’s website displayed a screed attacking Smith for not saying his kids are from different marriages and dressing in “blue jeans and no necktie” to meet voters.
Who’s the Senate Republican kingmaker: Gov. Paul LePage or Senate President Mike Thibodeau?
The primaries also will test the long-frayed relationship between the two highest-ranking Republicans in state government.
This week, LePage endorsed two conservatives, Guy Lebida of Bowdoin and Calais City Councilor Billy Howard, running Senate primaries against two Thibodeau-recruited Republican lawmakers, Sen. Linda Baker of Topsham and Rep. Joyce Maker of Calais, who are considered to be relative moderates.
It looks to be a delivery on LePage’s remarks at the Maine Republican Party’s convention in April, when he seemed to call for conservative purity, railing against legislators who say, “I’ll rub your back if you rub mine.” He said, “some are in our party and we need to weed them out.”
Both races will be tough for Republicans. Democrat Eloise Vitelli of Arrowsic, who Baker bounced from office in 2014, is running again in the Democratic-leaning district, and Maine Lobstering Union President Rock Alley of Jonesport is seen as a good candidate in the other district.
There’s some concern that primary wins for LePage’s candidates would increase Democrats’ chances of winning in November, and Thibodeau said Baker and Maker are the best candidates to win because of their independent streaks.
“I’m not sure that has always thrilled the governor, but that is their job and their responsibility, and they’ve done that very well,” he said.
Who will Democrats crown in Portland and Saco?
Perhaps the biggest Senate primary is the Democratic one in Portland among Rep. Diane Russell, Rep. Ben Chipman and Dr. Charles Radis.
Russell rode a massive cache of small-dollar donations to raise $89,000 as of late May, among the most ever for a Maine primary. Chipman ran as a taxpayer-funded Clean Election candidates, getting only $14,000 to run the race. Radis privately raised just under $13,000.
The two lawmakers also have gotten chippy with each other by proxy. A Russell supporter filed an ethics complaint against Chipman last month, which was followed by an ethics complaint around Russell’s political action committee from a former Green Independent Party activist, who overlapped with Chipman in his time in that party.
The other Senate centered on Portland can’t be ignored, either. Rep. Mark Dion of Portland is facing City Councilor Jill Duson and former Rep. Ann Peoples of Westbrook for the seat held by Sen. Anne Haskell, who declined a re-election bid.
In a York County race, Democrats will choose between Saco’s old and new guard: Rep. Barry Hobbins, a former legislative leader serving his 26th year in the Legislature, faces 25-year-old Rep. Justin Chenette.
How will establishment favorites fare in other key races?
Two other open-seat districts are seeing key primaries, too, including the ones represented by Sen. Earle McCormick, R-West Gardiner, and Sen. Michael Willette, R-Presque Isle.
In southern Kennebec County, former U.S. Senate nominee Shenna Bellows of Manchester and Gardiner City Councilor Terry Berry are competing for the Democratic nomination, while retired Navy Rear Adm. Bryan Cutchen of West Gardiner and Gardiner City Councilor Maureen Blanchard want the Republican nod.
Bellows has a statewide profile and has been endorsed by Democratic power-brokers, including the Sierra Club, but Berry is a real estate agent based in Hallowell with ties to both ends of the district.
Cutchen was recruited by Thibodeau, while McCormick backs Blanchard.
Thibodeau’s also behind Presque Isle City Council Chairwoman Emily Smith in her Republican Senate primary against conservative Rep. Ricky Long, R-Sherman. The winner will face former Democratic Attorney General Mike Carpenter of Houlton, who nearly beat Willette in 2014.