A version of this article was originally published in The Daily Brief, our Maine politics newsletter. Sign up here for daily news and insight from politics editor Michael Shepherd.
House Speaker Kevin McCarthy has a big choice ahead of him that may boil down to a federal government shutdown or risking his leadership post in yet another messy spending fight in Congress.
The Republican from California is the key player here. His party only has narrow control of the lower chamber, and a small group of conservatives led by Rep. Matt Gaetz, R-Florida, has said they would oppose any stopgap funding measure. The Senate is set to advance one of those ahead of a Saturday deadline to avert a shutdown.
Two of Maine’s members will be toward the center of this issue. Sen. Susan Collins is the top Republican appropriator, while Rep. Jared Golden, a Democrat from the 2nd District, has put forward a bill modeled on the funding plan from a large centrist caucus that he works with.
The context: Collins should be with the majority of senators in voting for a stopgap measure expected this week from Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer, D-New York. Politico tells us to expect a continuing resolution that funds the government for four to six weeks and buys time for a more comprehensive deal.
But Punchbowl News illustrates McCarthy’s political jam by noting he may be flayed by his conservative wing if he put that deal on the House floor. If he refuses, rank-and-file centrist including Golden have some options to get a funding bill to the floor.
It requires a few Republicans to take a risky stance and join Democrats to force a short-term plan through a House committee. At least three Republicans including Rep. Brian Fitzpatrick, R-Pennsylvania, who is co-sponsoring the centrist spending plan alongside Golden, have indicated support for doing that, according to The Hill.
Gaetz and the hard-liners are saying McCarthy is done as speaker if he relies on Democrats to pass a spending bill, and he also issued a warning to Fitzpatrick and his ilk.
“If Republican moderates want to go team up with Democrats and sign a discharge petition to take over the floor with Democrats, well, they’ll be signing their own political death warrant, and they’ll be handing it to their executioner,” Gaetz told The Hill.
What they’re saying: While speaking at the Cumberland Fair on Monday, Collins made a similar plea that was notable because it was aimed directly at McCarthy, noting that shutdowns are costly and could have major ripple effects on Maine, including at the busy Acadia National Park. The speaker needs to dissuade his members from forcing a shutdown, she said.
“My hope is that he can appeal to them, describe what the true implications of a shutdown are and also tell them that it doesn’t accomplish their goals,” Collins said, according to CBS News 13.
Other Democrats in Maine sounded the alarm on negative effects of a shutdown on Monday.
“Government shutdowns are needless, self-inflicted crises that destabilize our economy, jeopardize services that Maine people rely on, endanger our national security, and further erode the already-strained faith of people in government,” Gov. Janet Mills said in a statement on Monday.
What’s next: The House is where the real fight is for now. Collins and senators should be reasonably predictable this week and advance a spending measure. If McCarthy can’t figure his side out in the next few days, a shutdown is coming. Golden will only wield some power here if some Republicans step out.