The University of Maine hockey team’s forgettable weekend at Providence College, where it got swept by the Friars 6-1 and 3-0, has pretty much closed the curtain on the Black Bears’ chances to earn an at-large berth to the NCAA Tournament.
The Black Bears could climb back into consideration by winning at least nine of their last 11 games, but nothing indicates this team is capable of doing that.
The good news is that they can still earn their third straight NCAA Tournament berth by winning their second consecutive Hockey East tourney title. Last year’s conference tournament win was the program’s first since the 2003-04 season.
And as inconsistent as this team has been, there isn’t a team in the league that is head-and-shoulders better than any other team — or a serious Frozen Four contender — at least at this point in the season.
In the current NCAA Power Index, a system that has replaced the PairWise Rankings in emulating the NCAA Tournament selection process, the highest-rated team in Hockey East is Providence in 13th place among 63 Division I schools.
Sixteen teams make the NCAA Tournament, the six tournament winners and 10 at-large teams.
UMaine is 29th which is sixth-highest among the 11 Hockey East schools.
Every team in Hockey East has at least six losses in all games, non-conference and conference.
So UMaine certainly could win the tournament, although by continuing to stumble, the Black Bears are making it harder on themselves. They may end up having to win two road games just to get to the TD Garden in Boston for the semifinals and championship game.
After winning four of their first five Hockey East games, including a home sweep of preseason favorite Boston University, the Black Bears have lost six of their last eight conference games to fall to 6-7. They are 12-9-2 overall.
UMaine entered the Providence series tied for fifth among 63 Division I schools in goals-per-game with 3.81.
Facing a freshman goalie in Jack Parsons, who was starting in place of one of college hockey’s most experienced goalies in the injured Philip Svedeback, the Black Bears managed to beat Parsons just once on 47 shots in the two games. And that was a five-on-three power play goal.
Parsons, whose starts were just the second and third of the season and his career, earned Hockey East Rookie of the Week honors.
UMaine has now been held to two goals or fewer eight times and the Black Bears have lost all eight.
There were also costly turnovers, bad penalties and another dismal special teams showing.
Providence won the special teams battle 5-1.
The Friars had a 3-1 edge on the power play in the Friday game, going 3-for-7 with the man-advantage on Friday compared to UMaine’s 1-for-6, and they had a power play goal in four chances and a shorthanded goal on Saturday while UMaine was 0-for-2 on the power play.
So UMaine is now just 48th in the country in penalty-killing percentage at 76.1 percent and only 33rd in power play percentage at 19.8 percent.
There are a host of forwards in scoring slumps.
Even left wing Justin Poirier, whose 17 goals are the most by a freshman in the country and whose 28 points are second-most among first-year players, has not scored a goal in four games. That is his longest goalless drought of the season. He does have two assists in those four games.
He has one assist since being put on a line with fellow freshmen Jaden Lipinski and Miguel Marques three games ago. Lipinski and Marques have each been pointless in their last four.
Lipinski has a goal and no assists in his last 13 games and Marques had three assists in his last nine.
It is not uncommon for freshmen to struggle, especially during the second half of the season, as the wear-and-tear of college hockey takes its toll. They aren’t used to the physicality of college hockey and are facing some players much older and stronger than they are.
Junior center Max Scott has one assist in his last nine contests; senior left wing and co-captain Thomas Freel has a goal and an assist over his last nine and junior right wing Josh Nadeau has no goals in his last six although he does have four assists.
The veteran line of Sully Scholle between Charlie Russell and Owen Fowler has teamed up for just one goal and one assist over the past three games.
It is important to note that this team has talent and has shown glimpses of brilliance and being an NCAA Tournament-caliber team.
But those impressive showings are too few and far between.
UMaine has a weekend off before venturing to UMass Lowell.
In moving forward, the Black Bears have to make themselves a tougher team to play against by finishing checks, staying on the right side of the puck, limiting the opponents’ time and space with the puck and winning the net-front battles at both ends of the ice.
They will also need more consistent goaltending from Albin Boija and Mathis Rousseau.
Even though they are a long shot to make the NCAA Tournament, stranger things have happened and it is not out of the realm of possibility.