FOXBOROUGH — The Patriots and Texans have that opposites attract appeal.
The two Divisional Round opponents, who will meet for the chance to advance to the AFC Championship game, are football’s yin and yang when it comes to their greatest strengths.
The Texans boast the NFL’s top defense. The Patriots sport the NFL’s second-highest scoring team (28.8 points per game) in the regular season.
The 15-3 Patriots advanced by beating the Los Angeles Chargers while the 13-5 Texans, who have won 10 straight games, moved on by disposing of the Pittsburgh Steelers.
BETTING: The over/under is set at 40.5 total points on BetMGM for Sunday’s AFC Divisional playoff matchup against the Texans. Our comprehensive BetMGM Sportsbook review shows you how to register and use their site. For all of the best Patriots playoffs odds, be sure to check out our expert analysis.
How does this AFC Divisional Round matchup shape up? Who has the edge at each position?
Here’s the breakdown:
QUARTERBACKS
Breakdown: Drake Maye’s playoff debut was certainly not one of his better performances this season. He served up a pick on a tipped ball, and had two fumbles, one lost.
When the game was on the line, however, Maye still managed to deliver.
C.J. Stroud?
He was an absolute puddle against the Steelers. He couldn’t hold onto the football. He fumbled five times, losing it twice. He threw a pick.
Stroud has struggled to regain the form he showed as a rookie. He’s been much worse under pressure than the Patriots quarterback.
Maye, an MVP candidate and second team All-Pro, was easily the better quarterback during the season. This matchup at the game’s most important position isn’t particularly close.
Edge: Patriots
RUNNING BACKS
Breakdown: Between running and catching the football, and protecting the quarterback in blitz pickup, there are few if any running backs who are playing better than Rhamondre Stevenson right now.
The past four games, Stevenson has rushed for 332 yards, caught 15 passes for 206 yards and six touchdowns.
Having that kind of contribution is significant in the postseason.
TreVeyon Henderson, meanwhile, has been the perfect compliment to Stevenson in the Patriots backfield.
Texans rookie Woody Marks rushed for 112 yards on 19 carries in the Wildcard Round win over the Steelers. On the season, Marks rushed for 703 yards.
Nick Chubb, who has been the No. 2 back, added 506.
Stevenson and Henderson have combined for 1504 rushing yards and 16 touchdowns.
Among the 14 playoff teams, the Texans averaged the second-fewest rushing yards per game this season.
Edge: Patriots
WIDE RECEIVERS
Breakdown: With Nico Collins in concussion protocol and looking doubtful for Sunday’s game, that changes the wide receiver dynamic plenty.
Collins has notched 1,000-plus yard seasons in each of the past three seasons. He’s one of the NFL’s best at the position.
Without him, the Texans receiving corps isn’t quite as formidable.
Jayden Higgins (526 yards) caught six touchdown passes during the season. Xavier Hutchinson (428 yards) added three. Meanwhile, Christian Kirk (8 catches, 144 yards, 1 TD) was their best receiver in the win over Pittsburgh.
The Patriots have top gun Stefon Diggs, who pieced together a 1,000-yard campaign. The Chargers were focused on taking him out last week. He caught just two passes for 16 yards.
Kayshon Boutte (33 catches, 551 yards, 6 TDs) made his presence felt with four catches for 66.
DeMario Douglas (31 catches, 447 yards, 3 TDs), Efton Chism III and Kyle Williams have pitched in with Mack Hollins still out.
Williams made a huge 4th-down conversion in the WildCard win over the Chargers.
So with Collins expected to be out, the arrow changes direction.
Edge: Patriots
TIGHT ENDS
Breakdown: Both teams have terrific leading men at the position.
Hunter Henry, who finished as the Patriot’s second best receiver (60 catches, 768 yards, 4 TDs) added a much-needed touchdown in the win over Chargers.
Dalton Shultz was also the Texans second-leading receiver with 82 catches for 777 yards and 3 touchdowns.
Both Henry and Shultz are go-to-receivers for their respective quarterbacks.
Austin Hooper and Cade Stover are the No. 2s for the Patriots and Texans. So this one is pretty much a push.
Edge: Even
OFFENSIVE LINE
Breakdown: Pro Football Focus has the Patriots with the 11th-ranked offensive line. They have the Texans at No. 27.
PFF wasn’t a fan of the Texans unit in general. Houston had the 22nd-ranked pass block grade per PFF, while ESPN ranked Houston 30th out of 32 teams in pass block win rate.
Drake Maye (47 sacks), however, was sacked more than C.J. Stroud and Davis Mills combined (31).
Texans right tackle Trent Brown, a familiar face in New England, didn’t practice Wednesday or Thursday with an ankle injury.
It won’t help matters if the former Patriot doesn’t play.
Edge: Patriots
DEFENSIVE LINE
Breakdown: The Texans have the top-ranked defense in the NFL, and it starts up front.
They have two of the better edge rushers in the game. Danielle Hunter (15 sacks) is a 5-time Pro Bowl player. Will Anderson Jr. (12 sacks) is a 2-time Pro Bowler. He made the All-Pro team this season.
Defensive tackle Sheldon Rankins second team All-Pro.
The Patriots have a formidable front with Milton Williams and Christian Barmore in the middle. Williams is an absolute force, especially with the game on the line.
Harold Landry and K’Lavon Chaisson are good, but don’t have the same kind of sack production as Hunter and Anderson.
Edge: Texans
LINEBACKERS
Breakdown: The Patriots were happy to get Robert Spillane back after the linebacker missed time with an ankle injury.
He’s an important cog in helping shut down run games. Spillane, Christian Elliss and Jack Gibbens all played well in Sunday’s win over the Chargers.
The Texans are pretty stacked at the position, led by Azeez Al-Shaair, who Mike Vrabel coached one year while in Tennessee.
Al-Shaair leads the Texans defense in tackles (114). He also has two picks and 9 passes defenses.
Henry To’oTo’o and E.J. Speed are also with the unit. To’oToo’o is second on the team in tackles with 95.
This is how Drake Maye described the unit: “Those guys, especially the linebackers, they’re going to try to take your head off. And I respect them for it. They do it at a really high level. They tackle the ball carrier hard, they’ll punish them, and they’ll make you pay for it.”
Edge: Texans
SECONDARY
Breakdown: Christian Gonzalez was in concussion protocol during the week, but by Thursday, was no longer wearing a red non-contact jersey.
So chances are he’ll be good to go against the Texans.
The Patriots Pro Bowl corner was coming off one of his best games of the season against the Chargers. He pretty much shut down Quinten Johnston (3 catches, 20 yards).
Carlton Davis III, who plays opposite Gonzalez, and slot corner Marcus Jones have also played well of late.
Neither Gonzalez nor Davis have registered a pick this season.
On the opposite side, the Texans also boast a terrific cornerback duo with Derek Stingley (Pro Bowl, All-Pro) and Kamari Lassister with Jalen Pitre at nickel corner.
Stingley, Lassiter and Pitre all have four picks, as does safety Calen Bullock, a Pro Bowl alternate.
Jaylinn Hawkins and Craig Woodson, who played his best game against the Chargers on Sunday, are the Patriots safety duo with Dell Pettus sprinkled in.
Edge: Texans
SPECIAL TEAMS
Breakdown: Texans kicker Ka’imi Fairbairn has made 40 of 44 field goal attempts this season. Hasn’t missed a field goal inside 50.
He’s 9 for 13 from 50 yards and up.
Patriots kicker Andy Borregales is 27 for 32. He’s perfect from 50 yards and beyond (4-for-4) with a long of 59 yards.
Texans punter Tommy Townsend is averaging 47.6 yards per kick. He’s dropped 30 inside the 20.
Bryce Baringer is averaging 47.4 yards per punt for the Patriots. He’s had 21 inside the 20.
In terms of punt/kick returners, Jaylin Noel has averaged 10.8 per punt return, and 27.6 per kick return. He has not brought any back for touchdowns.
Marcus Jones has two punt returns for touchdowns. The Patriots have used several players on kick returns.
For the Texans, Deneco Autry is a prolific blocked-kick specialist. He has 14 career blocked kicks.
The Patriots don’t have anyone who is similarly a threat to block kicks.
Edge: Texans
COACHES
Breakdown: Mike Vrabel and DeMeco Ryans are cut from the same cloth.
Vrabel and Ryans are both former NFL linebackers. Both are big culture and motivational guys as head coaches.
Vrabel is a bit more experienced and has an AFC Championship game on his resume from his time in Tennessee.
Defensive coordinator Matt Burke has the NFL’s top unit. Patriots offensive coordinator Josh McDaniels has a wealth of experience, a half-dozen Super Bowl rings, and has turned Drake Maye into an MVP candidate.
Edge: Patriots
Story by Karen Guregian, masslive.com