Over 2019 and early 2020, U.S. Sen. Susan Collins was outraised and outspent by Democratic groups sparked into action by her vote to confirm Supreme Court Justice Brett Kavanaugh.
Collins fended off Democratic challenger Sara Gideon despite trailing public polls in 2020. She is buoyed in this year’s high-profile midterm by heavy upfront investments from outside groups lining up early to push back against another Democratic effort to flip vulnerable seats in the U.S. Senate.
As the Democratic primary heats up between Gov. Janet Mills and Sullivan oysterman Graham Platner, Republican interests have already reserved roughly $57 million in advertisements through Election Day — about $27 million more than Democratic counterparts, according to AdImpact data. This includes a massive early edge from now through Election Day.
Democrats will catch up. But this shows Republicans in full support of Collins despite her complex and strained relationship with President Donald Trump, who said in January she should “never be elected to office again.” Her reelection is critical to his party’s grip on Capitol Hill.
“This is going to be a battle,” Jason Savage, executive director of the Maine Republican Party, said. “For years, [Senate Minority Leader] Chuck Schumer and the Democrat Party have made Sen. Susan Collins their number one target. They have grown their fixation to obsessive levels.”
The top two GOP PACs investing in the race so far, Senate Leadership Fund and One Nation, have combined to reserve almost $10 million more in ads so far than all Democratic outside groups combined. SLF in January said it would invest at least $42 million to boost Collins’ hunt for a sixth term, including almost $37 million in ads and get-out-the-vote efforts.
One Nation, a dark-money group tied to Senate Republicans, is already running a major positive ad campaign for Collins, focusing on elements of her role as chair of the Senate Appropriations Committee. Pine Tree Results, a political group funded by the network of conservative judicial architect Leonard Leo and other wealthy Republicans, just made a June reservation.
Democrats are poised to kick spending into gear using similar methods after the primary between two very different candidates here in June, and after primaries in other states reshape the national map and investment strategies.
No matter which Democrat wins, the stage is set for more outside money to pour into Maine from both parties, and for 2020’s record $218 million in combined Senate campaign fundraising and outside spending to be toppled. Almost $80 million had already been spent on ads in the race by early March.
“It’s about power in Washington,” said Emily Cain, a former Maine lawmaker and congressional candidate who ran the national Democratic group EMILY’s List and supports Mills. “It will be harder to escape Donald Trump [than in 2020]. Collins has faced a lot of different environments, but this could be the toughest one yet.”
Cain noted that many national Democratic groups that can boost fundraising are in a holding pattern, with the floodgates poised to open after Maine’s and other states’ primaries. Republicans’ current edge on ad reservations isn’t surprising, she said, because they know they must be “all-in” for Collins.
“They know this is a serious one for Sen. Collins,” she said. “It’s a powerful statement they’re sending to whichever candidate: We have Collins’ back. We are keeping this seat. You should be scared.”
Platner, a 41-year old military veteran, has run an populist campaign supported by prominent progressives, including Sen. Bernie Sanders, I-Vermont, and Sen. Elizabeth Warren, D-Massachusetts. He has outraised Mills and led in primary polls, and led Collins in a recent hypothetical general election matchup. A third candidate, David Costello, is in the primary.
Mills, who has combated Trump’s targeting of federal funding for Maine over multiple issues, says Collins and the “Republican machinery … would make mincemeat” of Platner. Last week, the Mills campaign launched ads attacking Platner’s 2013 Reddit posts on sexual violence that critics say amounted to victim-blaming.
Platner’s team countered that Mills’ campaign was going negative and seeking relevance. He has run ads featuring supportive women in response to Mills’ ads, and apologized for the comments in an event this week but took no questions from reporters.
Republicans and Democratic critics also often cite revelations in October that Platner had a skull-and-crossbones tattoo on his chest, which he then covered.
Asked how Republicans will blunt Democratic momentum after the primary, Savage said it “largely depends on whether they nominate their failed governor who has made Maine unaffordable or the self-described communist who is still trying to explain away his Nazi tattoo.”