The increasingly heated toss-up race between Republican U.S. Sen. Susan Collins and Democrat Troy Jackson could hinge on a crucial bloc of voters both campaigns have appealed to in the final push before Election Day: women 50 and older.
In a late September AARP poll that Jackson led 50%-47%, Collins held a 4-point edge among women 50 and older, who make up about a third of Maine’s likely voters. Jackson’s lead among women overall came from younger women. AARP Maine gave more data on this group exclusively to the Bangor Daily News. Other polls also show older voters closely divided.
These women favored Democrats for Congress and governor but still leaned toward Collins, while men their age backed her by a wide margin. They are also among the most motivated to vote in a race with almost no undecided voters that could decide control of the U.S. Senate.
Several women interviewed by the BDN described the race as more nerve-wracking than any they had experienced. They were starkly divided over the candidates’ abilities and character and whether President Donald Trump’s low approval and relationship with Collins loomed over the race.
“The reason I voted for [Collins] is I think she’s a capable, honest person, smart as a whip,” Clara Payne, a retired lawyer from Brooksville, said in an interview. “Unfortunately, she’s running against Trump, not Troy Jackson. I think it’s a tougher year for her.”
Trump’s approval rating in Maine was 37% in a Fox News poll released Thursday, and only about a third of women and voters 65 and older approved. Collins still drew support from 1 in 5 voters who disapprove of the president, and the race was tied.
Susan Kolm, a 79-year-old Jackson supporter from Waterford, said she believed the former logger from Allagash is a good and genuine person whose competence was evident from his time as Maine Senate president, even if he’s an unpolished speaker.
But she worried about Jackson’s name recognition compared to that of Collins, combined with an onslaught of negative ads from Republican groups. More attack ads have dominated the airwaves on both sides of the race in recent days. Last week, Collins called on an allied group to pull a radio ad referencing Jackson’s family.
Collins also recently touted efforts to advocate for healthcare in Maine, one of the top issues for older voters in AARP’s poll. She campaigned alongside former independent U.S. Sen. Joe Manchin of West Virginia, appealing to moderates and undecided voters by highlighting bipartisan work.
Her campaign has pointed to Jackson losing his temper in Augusta, where he once threw a plastic water bottle during an argument over prescription drug prices and later apologized. An ad that began running Friday highlighted Jackson telling the senator to “shut up” during their final debate, arguing that’s his message to Maine women.
“Troy’s pattern of angry outbursts toward women who disagree with him — which was on full display at all four debates — clearly isn’t helping him win over independent voters,” Blake Kernen, a Collins spokesperson, said.
Jackson received a boost from U.S. Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, who in a Portland town hall made a direct push to Maine women frustrated by Trump administration cuts to healthcare and Collins’ vote to confirm Supreme Court Justice Brett Kavanaugh.
Jackson in a Portland event Friday shrugged off the ad on the “shut up” moment, noting the progressive Maine Women’s Lobby endorsed him last week. He said he wished “more people would get animated about these things.”
“People know that women’s rights are being taken away,” he told reporters. “I’ve fought for them. I’ve believed in them. I’ve worked with so many great women leaders that I’m so inspired by.”
Collins voted against the final version of Trump’s signature tax and spending law, which cut Medicaid, but Jackson and Democrats have focused on a procedural vote to bring it to the Senate floor. She says she did that to write a rural health fund into the bill, while Jackson has billed it as a deciding vote for the cuts.
“[Jackson] seems like a decent person and seems uncomplicated, and that’s what I want,” Anita Haviland, a retiree from Deer Isle backing the Democrat, said.
Roberta Bowden, a 67-year-old Collins supporter from Etna, described the healthcare system as “crashing around us right now.” Despite Medicaid cuts under Trump, she credited the senator for previous work on health care and veterans issues, and said her bipartisan wins were a sign she could be more productive than Jackson.
Healthcare is among the top reasons that Vickie Wallace, a retired medical technician from Holden, is backing the Democrat. After throat cancer and four heart attacks, cuts to healthcare over the last two years have threatened her life and family, she said.
“[Jackson] thinks all people should have healthcare, and he is not going to be a rubber stamp for what Donald Trump wants,” she said.
Social Security is a major issue in Maine, the nation’s oldest state, with the trust fund projected to run short in 2032. Collins said in their second debate that high earners should pay more into the program, while Jackson joins many other Democrats in wanting to scrap the program’s cap on taxable income and expand benefits.
Chris Partridge, 76, a former Democrat turned independent from Bangor, said she was a “nervous wreck” about the midterms. She defended Trump and Collins from Jackson’s critiques, and credited the senator for the 2025 law she championed to secure Social Security and retirement benefits for more Mainers.
“She’s one of the few honest politicians we have,” she said.