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State officials will begin tabulating Maine’s ranked-choice primary results this afternoon in Augusta, and the outcomes in three races remain uncertain heading into the count.
The secretary of state’s office began work at 1 p.m. Friday at the Maine Department of Public Safety building and will continue through next week as needed. The outcomes of the gubernatorial primaries and the Democratic one in Maine’s 2nd Congressional District will be announced at the same time.
Here’s where each race stands going into the count, using our ranked-choice simulator derived from almost-complete first-round results and pre-election polling data from SurveyUSA.
This Democratic race is wider open than it was early this week.
Four candidates still have at least a decent chance to win. Secretary of State Shenna Bellows, who finished fourth in the first round on Tuesday, still has the best chance of winning in our simulations. However, her win chance is down from 37% Wednesday to 35% today after falling further behind former Maine Senate President Troy Jackson in the race for third place.
Jackson’s supporters preferred Bellows by a large margin as their second choice. When Angus King III’s votes are redistributed, roughly half of simulations see Jackson eliminated before Bellows. If that happens, his votes break heavily to her, opening up her path to win.
Former Maine public health chief Nirav Shah leads the first round but wins only about 25% of simulated races because his supporters tend to prefer other candidates as backups. Former House Speaker Hannah Pingree has a broader closing coalition and wins roughly 30% of the time. Jackson is at 10%.
Any of them could walk out of the count as the nominee.
Bobby Charles is the heavy Republican favorite.
Lawyer and former federal official Bobby Charles has a big lead in the first round at 37.9%, but he wins in only about 76% of our simulated races. The main question is whether Ben Midgley (20.0%) or Jonathan Bush (19.8%) — separated by less than 300 votes — emerges to face him in the final round.
Despite that razor-thin gap, their win probabilities are tied at 12% each. Charles is likely to win over both rivals, but we see him beating Midgley more confidently than Bush, who draws more of former Senate Majority Leader Garrett Mason’s moderate transfers.
Joe Baldacci holds a clear edge in the 2nd District.
State Sen. Joe Baldacci leads at 31.6% and wins about 64% of simulated races. State Auditor Matthew Dunlap and former congressional aide Jordan Wood are essentially tied close behind him and each wins about 18% of simulations.
When longshot Paige Loud is eliminated at 10.7%, her votes break more heavily toward Wood, keeping that second-place matchup competitive. But Dunlap’s supporters favor Baldacci strongly as a backup, giving him a durable advantage regardless of who reaches the final round with him. However, Dunlap and Wood meet in the final round in 20% of simulations.