As news of the swine flu has been largely replaced by a return to coverage of the economy, torture and crime, the expected second guessing has begun. A common theme of this armchair quarterbacking is that the government overreacted, spreading fear and wasting money on an illness that turned out to be no worse than the common flu.
Overlooked in this assessment is that it might have been this perceived overreaction that prevented swine flu, or H1N1 as it is officially called, from becoming more widespread or deadly.
The World Health Organization says about 8,500 cases have been confirmed in 39 countries. Seventy-five people have died, including five in the United States.
In New York City, several schools were closed late last week after cases of the flu were confirmed among students and staff. A middle school assistant principal was in critical condition at a New York hospital with the swine flu.
City officials said the flu was spreading faster than expected, but that symptoms were mostly mild.
In Maine, there have been eight confirmed cases and six probable cases, which are awaiting confirmation from the federal Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. A school and daycare in southern Maine were closed during the early days of the outbreak.
Typically, the flu virus wanes in the warmer, more humid weather of late spring. That appears to be the trajectory of the H1N1 strain, although much remains unknown about the virus, which is still spreading across the country and world.
One way to look at the outcome so far is for Maine and other states to count their blessings that the virus was not as deadly as initially feared and to consider the reaction — many offices now are well supplied with hand sanitizer and tissues — good preparations for next fall, when H1N1 or another flu strain may be much more dangerous.
Further, the immediate and strong reaction to the swine flu may have helped keep it from getting worse here. Following the simple message of sneezing into a tissue or your sleeve and staying home when you don’t feel well can go a long way toward slowing the spread of an illness.
If officials in Maine and elsewhere had not reacted so strongly, it is possible that more people may have contracted swine flu and more could have died. No responsible official is willing to risk this outcome through inaction.
Government can be criticized for overreacting, but as the old saying goes: Better safe than sorry.