As grass-roots movements topple or weaken dictators and longtime ruling families across the Middle East, the phenomenon recalls another such blossoming of the democratic impulse. The year was 1848, an era when monarchies and royal families ruled much of Europe, relying on the still-lingering notion that God had somehow ordained their power (remember the “divine right of kings” from high school history class?).
From Tunisia to Egypt to Libya, Americans are inclined to be optimistic about the future of these Middle Eastern nations — and perhaps Saudia Arabia and Iran — as they try to throw off a generation of autocratic rule. We reject the notion that the people of the region are any less capable of embracing democratic institutions and methods than are Americans or Europeans. But the lessons of 1848 should remind us that not all such idealistic endeavors end well, or at least not initially.
Though Americans proudly recall our own revolution, it is more accurately described as a war of independence; that is, the colonies threw off their imperial overlords. Revolutions are class-based and occur within a nation. The French Revolution of 1789-1799 was a true revolution by this definition. It was inspired by American and Enlightenment ideals of individual liberty, but tragically descended into violence and chaos. The king was executed and republican institutions formed, but the monarch was essentially replaced by a dictator, Napoleon. Later, a monarchy, albeit a constitutional version, was restored.
The Second French Revolution of 1848 triggered what historians call the Spring of Nations, or Year of Revolution. Uprisings that year followed in the Germanic states, Italian states, the Hapsburg and Schleswig regions, and in what is modern-day Austria, Denmark, Belgium, Switzerland, Hungary, Poland and Ireland.
Some were quickly suppressed; others led to sweeping changes. Most were precipitated in part by food shortages, just as the Arabic uprisings of late have been tied to high food prices. Feudalism as a system had declined, but large landowners still dominated rural economies. Urban poverty also was rampant. Not coincidentally, Karl Marx’s “Communist Manifesto” was published in London in 1848.
Many of the uprisings were reversed, most notably in France, where the movement began. The restored monarchy there disbanded the democratic institutions. In Germany, as well, power reverted to an autocratic government. Still, historians say, the seeds were sown for what is modern Europe, where universal health care, protection against unemployment and government-supported housing remain.
If 2011 is to be the year of revolution for Middle Eastern nations, even a rough draft of its chapter in history books can not be written yet. If 1848 is any indicator, expect mixed results. Expect two steps forward, one step back. Expect violent backlashes, with the pendulum swinging far to the totalitarian extreme.
But once the people of these nations taste the sweetness of self-determination, their appetite for it will grow. Just as Europe threw off its monarchs, Arab nations may put strong-arm dictators in their past.