I have to be honest with you, I wasn’t so much a fan of 2011. I’ve been looking forward to next year for, well, most of this year.
Maybe it was just a crummy year. Maybe I’m just an optimist, always looking toward greener pastures. Maybe I am one of the sick, twisted individuals who looks forward to presidential campaigns and can’t wait for them to begin in earnest.
Who knows, but 2012 can’t come quick enough for me, and since that is happening soon, I’m in a good mood. So in the spirit of the holiday season, I have a gift for you: Eight bold predictions for the coming year, guaranteed to be right, 62.8 percent of the time.
Bold prediction No. 1
Paul LePage will have a better year. The new governor had a series of big wins this year, but his first year in office was undoubtedly defined by the trouble he got himself into. A great deal of time (and newspaper ink) was spent dissecting LePage’s verbal acrobatics, which distracted from agenda in a big way.
Not so in 2012. LePage may still grab headlines for saying something impolitic, and he is still very much the same unscripted, gruff communicator he always was, but he seems to have gotten a handle on things and will spend his sophomore year with a more deliberate and disciplined approach to governing.
Bold prediction No. 2
The Legislature will do some big things. Maine Republicans are afraid they might lose power after the coming legislative elections and are going to want to get a lot done just in case. That means they are going to try to tackle big reforms, entrenched problems and cross off a number of things on their wish list. They may never get as good a chance as they have now.
Bold prediction No. 3
Same-sex marriage will come to Maine. It looks like Maine voters will once again be asked their opinion on the extension of marriage to same-sex couples next November, and count me among the people who think that this time the push will be successful.
Bold prediction No. 4
Once it does, the universe will not implode. Write that down.
Bold prediction No. 5
President Obama will win Maine by seven points. There’s a presidential election next year, and no Republican has won Maine since 1988. That won’t change in 2012, though the president’s margin of victory will be significantly smaller than the 17-point drubbing he gave John McCain in 2008.
Bold prediction No. 6
The Republicans will retain the Maine Senate but lose the House. GOP lawmakers have acquitted themselves admirably in their time in government, but that won’t save them in the State House. President Obama’s coattails in Maine will have a significant down-ballot impact, and the Democrats will return to power in that body by a small, but comfortable margin.
Bold prediction No. 7
Mike Michaud and Kevin Raye will have a knock-down, drag out brawl in the 2nd Congressional District that will ultimately be decided by four points or less. The race will be quirky, polite in public and nasty behind the scenes, and in the end Raye will be the last man standing.
Bold prediction No. 8
You will not like some of the things I say. I mean that for each and every person reading this column.
If you are a conservative Republican who has come to enjoy my needling of the left, be prepared, because I take just as much joy in throwing punches at my own side of the aisle and have a few columns in the hopper which you will absolutely hate me for. And if you are a liberal Democrat, well, you already don’t like most of what I say.
In these predictions I have the utmost confidence. Just do me a favor and don’t clip this and remind me of what I predicted next December.
Matthew Gagnon, a Hampden native, is a Republican political strategist. He previously worked for Sen. Susan Collins and the National Republican Senatorial Committee. You can reach him at matthew.o.gagnon@gmail.com and read his blog at www.pinetreepolitics.com.
Not a bad list.
I bet you have more correct than not. May I add one with a caveat?
A Romney-Christie/Rice ticket will beat an Obama-Biden ticket but it will be much closer if it is Obama-Clinton.
Cheesecake, you and I agree that Mr. Gagnon made some smart predictions. I don’t agree with all of the predictions — I think Michaud will be re-elected — but he’s done a pretty good job with the crystal ball.
Your v.p. ideas have me wondering. Each presidential candidate will want to gain an edge with the veep selection, and Biden doesn’t gain Obama much. Would Hillary want to leave the State Dept. to become veep?
What effect, if any, will internet-based third party “Americans Elect” have?
Of course, as Yogi Bera said, “The reason the future is so hard to predict is because it hasn’t happened yet.”
I have read a couple articles suggesting that Biden and Clinton may want to make a swap and I remember some suggestion made a year ago that she wanted to leave. It will thrill you to know that prospect makes my “blood run cold” because in the opinions of some analysts/prognosticators Obama is toast otherwise. (baring a war)
I only made one visit to the Americans -Elect website and I’m not sure any of them really matter. I see that some Republican Congressman bolted in an effort to take the Libertarian mantle. I’m not sure he will make a difference either though he advocates the passage of same sex marriage in all 50 states. Is that alone enough to make an impact?
There is an outside chance that the whole thing can be upset by a brokered Republican convention. Yogi again. “It ain’t over ’til its over.”
Hve to disagree with you here. Christie as a useless VP would be a travesty. Christie stays NJ governor, is re-elected and will be a future contender for US President.
A Romney candidacy, if done correctly, could beat Obama, even in Maine. But Romney is a cautious man and I suspect he will not fire up enough Maine voters. Ron Paul could create a firestorm in Maine if he were to get the nomination and if he could PR his past enough. Gingrich would not stand a chance in Maine…
I like Christie as a President someday but we really need to take down Obama now. Christie would help do that even putting Democratic New Jersey in play for its electoral votes. At the very least Obama would have to commit $’s he might have better used somewhere else. Rice exudes confidence and is a bit of a games woman herself. She would do well standing up against Clinton or Biden in the foreign policy arena. I am unsure of what geographical area she might help infor electoral votes but maybe a bit demographically. Either way Obama needs to be defeated and these Progressive redistributive types stuffed back into their “collective” closets for another generation or two.
Krispie Kreme as president? Is there a bigger buffoon on the planet? The guy was born with a silver foot in his mouth and can’t wait to waddle out in front of a camera and preach sacrifice to the working men and women of New Jersey. A subject he knows absolutely nothing about. He is the typical trust fund baby that was born on third and spends his whole life crowing about the great triple he hit. Which would not be nearly as bad if he didn’t try to give other’s tips on their swing! lol. Krispie Kreme would finally put the bumper of the GOP clown car on the ground. If the GOP is serious about regaining the White House next year, they had better come up with a ticket that is a lot less laughable than what they have now. Only time will tell Cheesecake, but given the current crop of GOP candidates, I would not look for any moving vans in front of the White House after the next election. It is almost like the GOP is working for the Obama campaign.
Well sorry to disappoint. I would have thought the last person to portray their bigotry was a person like you. You come right out of the gate with it. Christie is actually very popular in NJ and that is why it is possible, with him on he ticket, the Republicans can take New Jersey.
You are correct time will tell but baring some unforeseen thing like a war or Clinton getting picked for VP Obama is a one-termer. I don’t think you recognize the depth of hate for what Obama has done to our country. You may not realize it but there are very few regions of the country that he is as popular as in Maine. Outside of the northeast and the far west coast and his home state most people (55-60%) believe he should not be reelected. That is a tough thing for anyone to overcome.
I try to contain my bigotry Cheesecake, I really do. But guys like Christie and Trump make it very hard. They picked the right name on the crib and have not been wrong about anything since. They are both not electable, so it is really a moot point. I am no fan of Obama, but he is head and shoulders above the current crop of GOP contenders. He would absolutely slaughter them in a debate. The GOP needs a dark horse, and they need him now, if they are to have any hope of regaining the White House. I am of course apolitical and I really do not care who wins, the American worker and American small businesses will lose either way.
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I’m not a Christie fan but where did you come up with ” He is the typical trust fund baby that was born on third and
spends his whole life crowing about the great triple he hit.”
Huh?
“Chris Christie
was born in Newark, New Jersey, the son of Sondra A. (née
Grasso) and Wilbur James “Bill” Christie, a certified public
accountant. He was raised in Livingston, graduating from Livingston High School. Christie
graduated from the University of Delaware with a Bachelor
of Arts in political science in 1984 and Seton Hall University School of Law
with a Juris
Doctor in 1987.”
Newark after the black
migration north during the early/ mid 20th century the birth place
of “trust fund babies”? Livingston is an upper middleclass NYC suburb in north
Jersey whose greatest population boost was from Jews moving out of Newark in
the 20 years leading up to the 1967 race riots. Livingston is probably affluent by Maine standards
but not as much as some of the nearby communities directly on commuter train
routes into NYC. He went to a public high school. No one in their right sense
of mind would classify neither the University of Delaware nor Seton Hall Law as
top tier schools in their category.
“Trust fund baby”?
Think not. In fact “trust fund babies” would most likely not associate with
someone with Christie’s socioeconomic background.
Matthew–I mostly agree with your prognostications also. Not on #1–the leopard can’t change his spots. Not sure about Michaud vs Raye. I will add this prediction though–a LOT of money will be spent an that race and we all now how ugly that tends to make things.
Best to you in 2012 –kc–
Yes, you’rre right about LePage, kcjonez. He can’t change. His handlers seem to be doing a better job with the muzzle, though.
Matt- I predict that if we do not do something about a $350 billion trade deficit with communist China, we are in for more of the same in 2012. Partisan bickering and passing the buck. The American people and the American government have a common problem. Not enough money to pay the bills. Too bad our “public servants” could not have seen this coming when they got us upside down in trade agreements with 88 different nations around the world. Our “public servants” had better stop worrying about lining the pockets of the top 1% and start worrying about the rest of us before the shooting starts. Your party has become the standard bearer of the top 1% Matt, and that will be their demise.
I wish I shared your optimism regarding gay marriage, Mr. Gagnon. However, the number of mouth-breathing knuckle-dragging, uneducated, small minded losers we so often find in these forums and elsewhere makes me hold the opposite prediction.
I hope you’re right… but I’ve little faith in so many uneducated and sheltered minds.
This is not a slam against the fine state of Maine… such mindless bigotry is a hallmark of way too much of America.
Ted, The posters here of the right or the left do not represent Mainers as a whole. We are just the ones with the big mouths. I expect Matt is correct. It will pass.
Plus, there are many regular posters here who don’t even live in this state… EJ Parsons is a vocal opponent of gays in Maine having civil marriage rights, yet doesn’t even live here.
There will be a lot of young new voters next fall who were old enough to watch the battle over gay marriage in 2009 but could not vote on it.
The vote was so close last time, and since the vote so many stories have come out about how unethically Mark Mutty and NOM conducted their smear campaign to win.
I am optimistic, but it will require we get out and talk to people in our communities and tell them why this issue is important to us. It’s hard to vote against “the gays” when you know they are your friendly neighbors who are always there to help the community.
I hope you’re right… but watching what happened last time, the letters to the editor here and in other Maine papers… I have my doubts.
We’ll see next year I suppose. If I’m wrong, I’ll happily sign it to the world!
I think you’re right. Couple what you’ve said with the fact that we’ve seen DADT repealed with none of the doomsday predictions come true, there is no way gay marriage won’t stick this time.
Oh no, this is no slam……..
The Gay Marriage vote will probay pass this time due to it being a national election, which will bring out more voters. The last time it was the focus of the election and smaller turnout. Those who are radically anti anything will come out to vote in greater numbers than those who aren’t.
I think this list will largely come true. I’m anxious for one of Maine’s legislative bodies to flip and for the US’s House to have fewer of the fringe freshmen. I just don’t think this tone of extremism is sustainable. I hope with split power and by smaller margins, the Republicans will be forced to come to debates in good faith. I don’t think I’m being partisan when I say that either, the fact of the matter is that Republican politicians, especially at the federal level have been very reluctant to compromise, even when it means accepting ideas/proposals they once advocated themselves.
Here is a prediction!
Lepage gets a heart attack from high cholesterol obtained by the hors d’oeuvres served up from the Heritage Foundation!
Both Physically and Polictically!
I hope you are right on #7, Michaud has got to go. I heard they are looking for a fork truck driver up to East. On gay marriage I think you are right, they will not relent until it passes, much like the attack on CMP’s nuclear plant.And Lepage will continue to drive the left mad. I think he enjoys it.
“they will not relent until it passes”
Damned right.
Hey Buddy
Perhaps after it passes, if it passes, it is brought up yearly to pass. See how they like it.
Go for it sweetie! The fight against those with no rational argument on their side will continue.
There is no hatred toward you, I do not care what you do or who you do, or how. Just because it did not pass you are having a fit. Why don’t you leave us alone in Maine and take that damned mural with you.
There are many gay couples I know who are Mainers and they would like to protect their families with civil marriage. Gays have always lived in Maine, as we have lived across America. Don’t ask us to leave our homes because you aren’t comfortable with reality.
It appears you are the only one in here pitching a fit, hon. Maine is my home too, not just yours. I will continue to fight for what is best for my family, as I would expect you to.
Fact remains, you have no rational argument to defend your discriminatory view of marriage, and as a result, you will lose. It’s only a matter of time.
Remember, half the people do not want it. Whenever this question comes up the comments are usually quite vicious. In your quest to crunch your wants on everyone it may be an idea to perhaps use reason and common sense to be persuasive to the naysayers. Good luck.
And half do.
The half fighting against it are harming citizens by denying them the same protections and guarantees under civil marriage that others have.
The half fighting for it are harming no one.
Now that is democratic, comrade.
Considering we’re a republic, I don’t get all the stuff about democracies you’re posting.
Hey buddy
On this 50-50 question who to hell is right? I do not want to battle over such a devisive issue. Gays have much to offer, I have no qualms with anyone so make something out of that.
This is why the Supreme Court needs to step up and affirm marriage equality nationwide.
So you do not believe in states’ rights?
Oh, states’ rights? So then you must be for the repeal of the Defense of Marriage Act. It blocks states’ rights in terms of marriage.
Each state can still deciede if they want. I think you like to put yourself in Gordian knots.
No, they can’t. The state’s decision is trumped by the federal government’s decision. The fed ignores and doesn’t recognize the state’s decision.
What I find amusing is that you spout off this high and might principles, but then when prodded, we see that you don’t actually believe in these things. You only do when it’s convenient.
Yes they can. What do you think that last vote was all about? You are the one who comes across as a know it all constantly.
Because you’re wrong. The Defense of Marriage Act is a federal law that trumps states’ rights. States can pass marriage laws for gays, but DOMA ignores the states’ decisions. Numerous courts have held so and it is making its way up to the Supreme Court.
Again, another “states’ rights” only when it’s convenient to their cause kind of conservative.
Someday I may get to be as smart as you, but I hope to God that day never comes.
He’s right.
The US constitutional protections on our civil rights trump states rights.
Interracial marriage was made legal nationwide, and sodomy laws struck down nationwide, because our supreme court affirmed our constitutional rights to equal protections under the law.
So I guess to you states that banned interracial marriage were OK, huh?
That is one of the pitfalls of democracy, I never said it was right.
But how will they run a campaign to repeal it? After a year of it being legalized, everyone will recognize that none of the doomsday predictions came true. Just like with Don’t Ask, Don’t Tell.
This has been visited twice and defeated. No means no, or are you trying to drive more people out of Maine?
That’s not really even relevant to my comment. Also, there is no way in hell that people are leaving this state because of gay marriage. Just like was threatened with DADT, how so many soldiers would leave — they didn’t. We have young educated people leaving the state in search of jobs — we also know that those who are young and those who are educated both tend to more often support marriage equality. Nice try though.
I could not care less about the gay marriage issue. It has been decided though for the time being. You can revise your thinking anyway you want but the facts remain.
You really not addressing what I’m saying though, you’re just speaking vaguely and responding with generic comments. People won’t leave the state when we have gay marriage legalized, just like soldiers didn’t leave the military when Don’t Ask, Don’t Tell was repealed.
I live in the here and now not in your revisionist ways.
I live in the now. I look back to the wild claims fools made a few years ago about how the world would likely end if gays were allowed to serve openly in the military. How soldiers would quit in droves and there would be endless orgies or whatever. Guess what? None of that happened. We’re a better country with that repeal. Just like we’ll be a better country once marriage equality is the law of the land.
I find it laughable that the arguments against gay rights are always these wild predictions that never seem to come true. When they don’t come true, you guys pretend like you never made those claims. It’s such a joke.
You are the joke. 50% of the people in Maine do not want gay marriage, if it were say 70-30 it would be inevitable. You ignore half the population to quench your own thirst.
And 50% of the people in Maine wish to harm others over something that doesn’t affect them.
Who wants to run over whom?
You do. You wish to harm citizens.
Those for marriage equality do not.
How is your harm and forcing your view onto the other 50% not “running over” citizens?
I give up. You are so smart and I am so dumb. (for trying to have a discourse on this)
Okee dokee.
The last and only time this was brought to a vote in Maine, it was in an off election with low voter turnout. Usually when an issue like this is the hot button item on the ballot it will bring out the anti’s in droves. This time the issue will be on the November ballot in a Presidential vote. You will see gay marriage approved. Probably with a 60+% margin.
…says the person who revises history claiming we have voted on gay marriage more than once.
No it hasn’t… There has only ever been one vote held on gay marriage, and that was in 2009.
Same as they run a campaign to endorse it. It is a 50-50 question so you must see that half the people do not want it or do they not count o’ closed minded one?
“…LePage may still grab headlines for saying something impolitic, and he is still very much the same unscripted, gruff communicator he always was, but he seems to have gotten a handle on things….”
Impolitic, gruff, unscripted? Are you kidding? How about rude, crude, classless, disrespectful, and insulting?
He doesn’t have a handle on things, he has just learned to accept a muzzle.
Hope, platitudes, and a little political hackery mixed in there
I predict that 4 of your 8 predictions will come true (and I won’t say for now which ones).
I agree that Obama will win Maine again but with a smaller margin. Romney won’t be able to pull it off.
One thing that might surprise a lot of people is the overall lack of support for Senator Snowe by the regular (non establishment) GOP voters. They may very well pull the lever for D’Amboise just to send a very loud and clear message. It is getting harder to find regular GOP voters who support her.
Wow what a cauldron #3 is. Perhaps both sides could show some compassion for each other. Both sides.