Two new polls of Latino voters confirm what I have been writing for several months: Republican frontrunner Mitt Romney is so unpopular among Hispanic voters that he would have a hard time winning the November elections.
A nationwide poll of likely Hispanic voters released last week by Fox News Latino shows that if the election were held today, 70 percent of Hispanics would vote for President Barack Obama, while 14 percent would vote for Romney. The poll, conducted by telephone, has a margin of error of 2.7 percent.
A previous poll of registered Latino voters nationwide released Jan. 24 by the Univision television network shows that Obama’s approval rate among Hispanics is of 63 percent, compared with Romney’s 28 percent. The Univision poll’s margin of error is of 4.4 percent.
Not surprisingly, both polls show that Latinos are uneasy about the anti-immigrant rhetoric used by Romney — and, to be fair, by the other leading Republican presidential hopefuls as well — during the Republican primaries.
Romney has enthusiastically supported Arizona’s draconian anti-immigration law, which many Latinos fear will lead local police to harass Hispanics regardless of their immigration status. Romney has also said he would veto the DREAM act, a bill that would give a path to legal residence to Latinos who were brought to the country at a young age and are in college or in the armed forces.
According to the Fox News Latino poll, 90 percent of Hispanic U.S. citizens support the DREAM Act, and 80 percent would like to see undocumented immigrants have a chance to legalize their status.
When I asked Republican strategists whether the latest Fox News Latino poll proves that Romney would face an uphill battle to win the November election, they made three basic counterarguments.
—First, the poll is not very significant in electoral terms, because most of those surveyed are Hispanics from Western states, which tend to vote overwhelmingly Democrat anyway. What will really count in November will be the Hispanic vote in swing states, such as Florida, Arizona and Colorado, several Republican strategists told me.
“Governor Romney has done well in states with large Hispanic populations, such as Nevada, Arizona and Florida,” Romney spokesman Alberto Martinez told me. “As his vision on creating jobs and rebuilding the economy is compared to Barack Obama’s abysmal record of the past three years, Gov. Romney will continue to be successful among Hispanics nationally.”
Romney won 3 percent of the Hispanic vote in Arizona’s recent primary, compared to 24 percent for Republican rival Rick Santorum. In Florida, Romney won 54 percent of the Hispanic vote compared to 29 percent for Santorum, according to CNN exit polls.
—Second, all polls agree that the most pressing issues for Hispanics are jobs and the economy. That’s what will really count on Election Day, much more than immigration or other issues, they say.
—Third, many Latino Democrats may stay at home on Election Day because they are disenchanted by the president’s record on the economy, his failure to deliver on immigration reform, and the record number of Hispanics deported during his term. That can badly hurt Obama on Election Day, Republican strategists say.
A recent Pew Hispanic Center poll showed that Obama’s approval rate among Latinos has dropped from 58 percent in 2010 to 49 percent in 2011.
My opinion: Romney has a huge Latino vote problem. He will most likely try to overcome it by appointing a Latino politician — Sen. Marco Rubio, R-Fla., or New Mexico Gov. Susana Martinez, for instance — as his running mate. He may also go for former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush, a fluent Spanish speaker who is married to a Mexican.
But even with a Latino or a fluent Spanish-speaker on his ticket, Romney would have a hard time winning the 40 percent of the Latino vote pollsters say he would need to win the election. In his quest for support from the extreme right of his party, he has alienated most Hispanics.
Granted, Romney could make a big rhetorical U-turn on immigration issues after winning the Republican nomination, but I doubt that would be enough.
He will have to also change his stands on the Arizona law, the DREAM Act and other issues that are dear to Hispanics. Otherwise, as shown by the dismal 14 percent support among Latinos in the latest poll, he will be seen as the anti-Latino candidate, and will lose the November election.
Andres Oppenheimer is a Latin America correspondent for the Miami Herald.
What a terribly biased and rascist article.
“Not surprisingly, both polls show that Latinos are uneasy about the anti-immigrant rhetoric used by Romney — and, to be fair, by the other leading Republican presidential hopefuls as well — during the Republican primaries.” In fact, many people of Hispanic origin support controls on immigration, yet they all lumped together to paint with a broad brush this “reporter’s” cause.
Not one of the Republican candidates are “anti-immigrant.” They simply oppose the open borders that Mr. Oppenheimer is clearly advocating for, and they oppose welfare programs such as the DREAM Act for people who are not citizens of the U.S.
Please remember this in November: A nation is principly defined by two things: its borders, and its laws. Illegal immigrants offend both.
The thing is though, these policies (especially if Romney wants an Arizona style policy) impact legal immigrants as well as citizens of minority ethnic backgrounds alike. The policies aren’t tailored narrowly enough whatsoever and so something as routine as a traffic stop can turn into an immigrations ordeal for a citizen simply because he/she has dark skin.
The article isn’t racist. Quit throwing around that word without basis, it’s cheapening. Further, this is an opinion article, so obviously it’s going to take a stance on the issue.
No, they’re not. Authorities in the course of a legal stop have to have a reason to suspect that someone is here illegally in order to check immigration status. Racial profiling is specifically prohibited by Arizona law which is more than one can say about FEDERAL immigration law. Now, if you’re “darker skinned” and a citizen, you presumably have a driver’s license if you’re driving which can be verified. If you’re a legal visitor to this country, federal law already requires you to carry your proof of status. A citizen who can’t prove his identity may already be detained by authorities until he does so.
Girl, get real. That’s not accurate. And get in Maine. Why are you commenting here if you’re not a Mainer?
And their children? And their childrens children? Please, spare me the rant.
We are a nation of immigrants. The greatest increase in prosperity the world has ever seen came with a steady flow of immigrants, some legal, some not.
The only reason immigrants come illegally is because there are so many employers willing to exploit them.
If those are the two things that define a nation, Obama should do very well! He has presided over the most effective border control policies and workplace enforcement policies seen in ages. The borders are more secure and the laws that were ignored have been prosecuted accordingly. If enforcing immigration law is a high priority for you, don;t vote for Mitt, who has used illegal labor before, vote Obama, the guy who has vigorously tightened the borders.
We are a nation of LAWS and that’s what has made this country great, beginning with the Constitution. Prosperity has come from respecting those laws, something you can easily see by contrasting us with failed economies such as corrupt Mexico.
Obama is doing everything he can to avoid enforcing the law, including letting people who have already been ordered deported remain here on the grounds that they’re “Dream Act eligible”–and that includes the parents who brought them here illegally. And the border is only secure because the economy is so bad, even illegal aliens won’t come. If and when it turns around, the reduction in Border Patrol (which is now shifting its efforts to drug interdiction) will be readily apparent in the increase in illegal immigration. As for workplace enforcement, nonsense. Instead of deporting illegal aliens detected, he’s letting them move on to other jobs. Employer sanctions are a joke, less than $27,000 per company because he hasn’t made eVerify mandatory. On top of which, he’s suing states that have been instrumenatable, through programs such as 287g, in providing the illegal aliens for the deportations he’s taking credit for. Even then, the deportation figures have been fudged, as he freely admitted to Hispanic audiences. And he’s trying to cut the budget for 287g to starve it to death, just as supporters of illegal aliens want.
Mad libs talking points. Wow, good for you, you’re a successful parrot.
Your post is very distorted and ignores the actual record of the absolute effectiveness of Obamas border efforts.
You have a blind spot for the president it seems. He has increased border security and prosecution more than anyone in our history. Spare me the baseless rant.
Romeys biggest problem is that he is a 1%er Republican.
Considering the poor hate him equally as much I would have to say congrats to Obama….he has already won !
The poor also hate being unemployed and having $5 gas prices.
And the poor and young tend not to vote as much as the wealthier and the old.
The Hispanic problem in the U.S is far past serious and “Border” lining critical.
Fact is, Latinos are less than 10% of the electorate and are concentrated mainly in Democratic states where more Latino votes won’t make a difference in the electoral vote. Meanwhile, plenty of us Democrats oppose amnesty and Independents, too. Independents outnumber Democrats and they’re none too happy with Obama these days.