PORTLAND, Maine — The campaigns of incumbent Republican Gov. Paul LePage and Democrat Mike Michaud scrambled Wednesday to take advantage of independent Eliot Cutler’s acknowledgement that he has little chance to win the Nov. 4 Maine governor’s election.
In a hastily arranged news conference Wednesday morning, Cutler made it clear he would continue campaigning and not endorse another candidate, despite mounting evidence from polls that his chances of winning are minimal. He told his supporters that if they don’t believe he can win, they should “vote their conscience.”
The LePage campaign seized on the fact that Cutler did not formally withdraw as an indication that the independent was not stepping aside to allow his supporters who disapprove of LePage to coalesce behind Michaud.
“He’s clearly not dropping out of the race,” said LePage campaign spokesman Alex Willette. “Probably what is going on is that he’s under so much pressure to drop out because Democrats are pumping hundreds of thousands of dollars into ads.”
Given that polls consistently show LePage’s support near 40 percent, with relatively high unfavorability ratings, the Republican’s path to re-election is easier if Cutler can attract 15-20 percent of the total vote — including a segment of the anti-LePage bloc. While some polls in September and early October showed Cutler garnering that level of support, a Pan Atlantic SMS poll results released Tuesday showed a shift of support from Cutler to Michaud, compared with previous results from Pan Atlantic.
Willette said he expects more polling data due this week to show a different dynamic.
“What we’ve seen in all the polls is that Cutler’s support comes from Republicans, Democrats and independents,” said Willette. “This really changes nothing from our perspective.”
Michaud campaign spokeswoman Lizzy Reinholt said the Pan Atlantic poll and Cutler’s statements Wednesday were clear signals to anti-LePage voters that now is the time to consolidate behind the Democrat.
“We find it encouraging that [Cutler] told his supporters to vote their conscience,” said Reinholt. “Right now we need to come together to ensure we’re bringing change to the Blaine House on Election Day. It sounds like Eliot is realizing this is a two-person race between Michaud and LePage.”
A group of former Cutler supporters, including some who have donated time and money to the independent, held a news conference Wednesday in Portland to say they have switched their allegiance to Michaud.
“All of us believe that Mike Michaud is a candidate with strong progressive values,” said Cape Elizabeth businessman Bobby Monks, who was Cutler’s campaign finance chairman in 2010.
Jim Shaffer of Cape Elizabeth said that although Cutler brought an impressive resume and abilities to the race, Michaud is now the best choice.
“I think the right thing to do is to unite behind Mike Michaud,” said Shaffer. “This does not mean this is a ‘lesser of evils’ choice for former Cutler supporters. Mike Michaud has a lot of solid skills that the state needs.”
Countering that perspective, the LePage campaign drew attention to social media posts Tuesday from Cutler that criticized Michaud. The Republican governor and his supporters have consistently dismissed the argument that Cutler represents a “spoiler” who stands between Michaud and victory by splitting opposition to LePage. During debates and in campaign correspondence, the LePage camp has said it would welcome a two-way contest between the governor and Michaud more than a one-on-one matchup between LePage and Cutler.
One thing is certain: Cutler is not about to endorse either of his opponents.
“Some will vote for Mike Michaud, some will vote for Paul LePage, and some will stick with me,” said Cutler at his news conference Wednesday morning. “I am not standing down, and neither should those voters whose consciences compel them to cast a vote for me, for their hopes and not their fears, as they share my optimism for a rewarding Election Day. I am proud and grateful to have their support.”
