Maine’s early burst of winter weather didn’t hit on Election Day, but there’s a chance it will affect the number of voters who make it to the polls.
Roads are clearing up in the spots that saw the heaviest snow, but power could still be out for many by the time polling stations open. Some polling stations might still be powerless. Polling places that are relocated because of power outages or other weather-related problems will be listed on the secretary of state’s website Tuesday.
Weather has its way of interfering with politics. A 2007 study by political scientists Brad Gomez, Thomas Hansford and George Krause found that for every inch of rain over the course of 14 presidential elections voter turnout fell by almost 1 percent. Snowfall depressed turnout at a rate of about 0.5 percent for every inch. They think the weather tipped the balance in the 1960 and 2000 presidential elections.
When it comes to voting in Maine, weather events in recent memory have affected presidential primaries more than general elections.
— In February 2012, the Washington County GOP postponed its presidential caucuses due to a pending snowstorm. Because of the delay, the Maine Republican Party at first didn’t include Washington County votes in its tally when it announced Mitt Romney had won the state’s caucuses. The Washington County results — which favored Ron Paul — were ultimately factored in, but the outcome didn’t change.
— In February 2008, heavy snow coincided with the Democratic Party’s presidential caucuses, though it didn’t appear to depress turnout at many caucus locations.
— Outside of Maine, Hurricane Sandy slammed the coasts of New Jersey and New York in late October 2012, depressing turnout. New Jersey posted the lowest turnout in the state’s history for a presidential election.
— In January 1979, a blizzard dropped 20 inches of snow on Chicago. The Democratic primary for mayor wasn’t for another month, but Mayor Michael Bilandic’s response — especially a merciless crackdown on parking violations — stuck in voters’ minds, and contributed to his loss.
If some Maine voters this year don’t show up at the polls because of the weather, it’ll probably be because they really can’t get to the polls.
“Voters don’t need an awful lot of an excuse sometimes to stay home if they don’t know the candidates and the issues,” said Maine Secretary of State Matt Dunlap, whose office is predicting voter turnout between 55 and 60 percent. “This year, I don’t think there’s any risk of that because these are very high-profile issues and very high-profile candidates.”