AUGUSTA, Maine — The Maine Democratic Party is in for some soul-searching after voters earlier this month rebuked its slate of statewide candidates for the fourth straight election.
Not since John Baldacci won his second term as governor in 2006 has a Democrat not named Barack Obama won a statewide election in Maine. Democrats have lost every U.S. Senate contest in Maine since George Mitchell won re-election in 1988.
The party had been more successful in regional races, including the U.S. House of Representatives, where the party had uninterrupted control of both of Maine’s seats since 1997. But that dominance was ended this month, when GOP candidate Bruce Poliquin won in the 2nd Congressional District.
In the Legislature, where Democrats had enjoyed decades of near-total dominance in both chambers, Republicans have begun showing an ability to flip seats, especially in midterm elections. The GOP took majorities in both the House and Senate in 2010 before losing both in 2012, when Democrats were buoyed by the presidential election.
This year, the GOP took the Senate back and won 10 additional seats in the House — just eight seats short of a majority.
Then there’s Gov. Paul LePage — the bellicose businessman from the traditional Democratic stronghold of Lewiston — who emerged from relative political obscurity when he won the governor’s race in 2010 and defied expectations with a decisive win this year. LePage went from 38 percent of the total vote in 2010 to 48 percent in 2014, despite the pundit classes predicting he’d be undone by his combative attitude and the slew of controversies it caused.
What has been the Democrats’ unraveling, and how can they rebound in 2016 and beyond? Here’s what a collection of party officials and outside analysts have identified as keys to a turnaround.
Democrats must show that they can be responsible stewards of voters’ tax dollars. That was the message from Mike Cuzzi, a Democratic operative and commentator speaking as part of a post-election panel on Wednesday at the University of Southern Maine.
Cuzzi said LePage successfully made the 2014 election about welfare reform, lower taxes and business investments, all of which had an undercurrent of fiscal responsibility. Those themes showed “deep fidelity with working-class voters,” he said.
“Democrats, by comparison, were talking about minimum wage, Medicaid expansion and renewable energies,” Cuzzi said. “We have paper mills shutting down in this state for want of access to natural gas, and the Democratic Party is talking about wind. … It’s a fundamental disconnect.”
Former party chairman, state lawmaker and Democratic National Committeeman Severin Beliveau — a Maine Democratic Party power broker for four decades — agreed with Cuzzi. In a Thursday interview, Beliveau said his party needed to show that it was not just the party of big government and the status quo.
For example, Democratic gubernatorial candidate Mike Michaud’s “Maine Made Plan” — a tome outlining the key investments of his policy agenda — had a price tag in the tens of millions of dollars, but no plan to pay for it. By contrast, LePage’s core message was simple and cheap: smaller government, lower taxes.
“Most Maine residents are struggling and don’t see government as a partner or a solution,” Beliveau said. “People are looking for leaders on economic and job issues. We don’t have a response. Our response is bigger government, more funding.”
Democrats must expand their base, first by reconnecting with rural voters and the working class. Beliveau described this year’s electoral map this way: “With the exception of Portland and some communities on Penobscot Bay, the state is under a blanket of red.”
That wasn’t always the case. Historically, Democrats and left-leaning independents such as U.S. Sen. Angus King have succeeded in working-class communities and mill towns, such as Jay, Livermore Falls, Skowhegan, Bucksport and Rumford. But LePage won them all — even against Michaud, a former millworker.
Beliveau said that’s partly because of the diminishing efficacy of unions in delivering votes to Democratic candidates — a phenomena linked to what he described as the increasing divide between the party and working-class voters.
“All these wealthy, academic, intellectual, high-end Democrats voted for [Michaud] because they don’t have to deal with the issues the rest of the state is confronted with,” he said.
Aside from working-class voters, Democrats also needed to reach out to middle-aged Mainers, who went overwhelmingly to LePage, according to Ron Schmidt, a professor of political science at the University of Southern Maine.
“The Democratic party in general has a serious issue there,” he said during Wednesday’s post-election panel. “They need to find a way to make inroads with new groups and energize the electorate even when a presidential candidate isn’t on the ballot.”
Democrats must promote a specific, coherent vision for the state. After the election,one of the immediate criticisms of Michaud’s campaign was that he failed to articulate a vision for the state, opting instead to hang his bid on his likeability, bipartisan record and cooperative nature.
But LePage, running on his record of cutting taxes, reforming welfare and shaking up state government, convinced voters that his agenda was worthwhile, even if they didn’t like his personality. Democrats thought that simply not being LePage — who most polls showed was unpopular among a high percentage of Mainers — would be enough. They were wrong.
“If Democrats don’t come up with a dream and a vision of what Maine should look like, this is going to be a long-term win for Republicans in the state of Maine,” said Lance Dutson, a Republican operative who worked with U.S. Sen. Susan Collins’ re-election campaign this year.
Mary-Erin Casale, executive director of the Maine Democratic Party, said she believes the party’s values are winning ones with Maine voters. If the votes didn’t come, she said, it’s a failure of communicating those values.
“I think we need to clearly articulate our plans, our beliefs about how to improve the lives of everyday Mainers,” she said. “To say there isn’t an opportunity for improvement would be disingenuous. There has to be a moment of reflection, a moment of listening and figuring out what we can do better.”
Democrats shouldn’t throw out the baby with the bathwater. The party needs to address its strategic shortcomings but probably shouldn’t radically alter its identity.
Mark Brewer, a professor of political science at the University of Maine and an expert in partisan politics, said Democrats were hurt this year by some factors outside their control — namely an unpopular incumbent Democratic president and a bear-baiting referendum that brought LePage-loving hunters and outdoorsmen to the polls.
“There’s a lot they could have done, starting with message. But they couldn’t have made Barack Obama more popular, and they couldn’t get bear-baiting off the ballot,” Brewer said.
Even Matt Gagnon — a longtime Republican strategist who leads the Maine Heritage Policy Center, a free-market think tank — said Democrats likely can win in Maine again. They just need the right candidate.
He said that’s what Republicans had found in LePage.
“The policies he’s advocating aren’t that different than the ones we’d been advocating for 40 years,” he said. “The problem they have is that disconnect with voters. Whatever you say about Paul LePage, he’s connected with voters better than any Republican that ran in the previous 40 years.”
Casale said that while she and the other leaders of the Democratic Party will be looking for improvement, they won’t overreact to the electoral loss.
“I personally don’t think Democrats need to be more like Republicans,” she said. For Republicans to “do this victory lap, and say this is what everyone wants, that they have a mandate, I think you’ve got to be careful with that.”
Follow Mario Moretto on Twitter at @riocarmine.
