AUGUSTA, Maine — Politically speaking, 2014 in Maine started as if it would be the year when everything would go the Democrats’ way.
But then, it didn’t.
Despite expectations that Republicans would gain nationally during off-year elections because of dissatisfaction with Democratic President Barack Obama and vulnerable Democrats in Congress facing tough re-election challenges, polls and pundits theorized that things were looking good for Democrats in Maine.
— Democrats thought they had built a strong argument for voters to turn against a controversial and seemingly unpopular governor, Republican Paul LePage, using his 182 first-term vetoes as what they saw as proof that he was an obstructionist bully.
— One of Maine’s most popular Democrats, six-term centrist U.S. Rep. Mike Michaud, was polling mostly ahead of LePage for months before the election.
— In the Legislature, Democrats were somewhat worried about their majority in the Senate but hoped to gain ground in the House, where they already had a 31-seat majority and where they had 66 incumbents running for re-election, compared with just 29 Republican incumbents running for another term.
— Democratic state Sen. Emily Cain of Orono seemed to represent the party’s hope of the future after easily defeating Sen. Troy Jackson in the 2nd Congressional District primary while Republican candidate Bruce Poliquin, coming off 2010 and 2012 GOP primary losses for governor and U.S. senator respectively, emerged seemingly scarred after a bruising battle with Kevin Raye, a former Maine Senate president. Democrats saw Cain as being well-positioned to succeed Michaud in the 2nd District, building upon 20 years of Democrats’ control of the northern and western Maine congressional seat.
None of that mattered on Election Day, when LePage exceeded all the predictions with more than 48 percent of the vote, Republicans crushed Democrats in the Maine Senate and made major gains in the House. Cain lost to Poliquin by more than 5 percentage points, despite conservative independent Blaine Richardson taking 11 percent of the vote, leaving the party to rebuild with a new chairman and executive director — and no clear top-of-ticket candidates.
So what is the new normal in Maine politics?
Paul LePage is a dominant force. The governor operates outside the norm in Augusta, whether it’s refusing to submit supplemental budget bills, piling up vetoes or spewing headline-grabbing insults. LePage and his re-election team recognized that vulnerability and began using “Actions Speak Louder Than Words” as a campaign slogan early on, relentlessly touting his list of high-profile accomplishments. LePage earned more votes than any governor in Maine history despite millions of dollars spent against him. His convincing victory on Election Day will embolden him to push through his goals on energy policy and welfare reform, and the depleted Democrats in the Legislature will be less likely to oppose him.
Democrats have a message problem. Following four years of being on the defensive against LePage — and their failed anti-LePage offensive — Democrats need a populist message they can call their own. “Moving Maine Forward,” which was Michaud’s slogan, isn’t it.
Democrats have a personnel problem. Who will top the Democratic ticket when LePage leaves office in four years? Cain is bruised, but already talking about another congressional run. Michaud isn’t ruling out another run but seems content to retire to the Katahdin region. Veteran Democratic legislative leaders like Senate Minority Leader Justin Alfond, Sen. Bill Diamond and House Speaker Mark Eves are too entrenched in southern Maine to attract the necessary support in the 2nd District. And this is at a time when there are growing murmurs trying to pull Republican U.S. Sen. Susan Collins — who might be the only Republican in Maine with anything close to LePage’s cache — into another gubernatorial run.
Money and an impressive ground game won’t win elections on their own. Michaud, who raised and spent more than $3 million on the gubernatorial race, poured more into the election than either LePage or independent Eliot Cutler. However, the candidates’ spending was dwarfed by independent expenditures, mostly from outside Maine, which totaled more than $14 million and more than tripled the previous record. More than half of that total was to oppose LePage or support Michaud, including aggressive advertising, telephone and knock-and-talk campaigns. Vast, well-resourced and influential groups like the Maine People’s Alliance and any number of labor unions also failed to make enough of a difference.
The possibility of “clean elections” in Maine is virtually dead. None of this year’s three gubernatorial candidates ran using the Maine Clean Election Fund and couldn’t have even if they wanted to, given the fact that funding for it was cut in 2013. A group called Maine Citizens for Clean Elections is working on a citizen initiative to increase public funding for gubernatorial and legislative races, but the aforementioned independent expenditures in Maine politics aren’t likely to abate without significant changes by Congress or the U.S. Supreme Court.
Mainers are fine with borrowing. The one area where LePage was rebuked at the ballot box was on bonds. Despite four years of LePage at times refusing to issue bonds and his loud protests against state borrowing, Mainers approved six bond questions on Nov. 4, five of which passed with 58 percent of the vote or more. This is likely a result of the fact that Maine in recent years has lagged behind what most economists consider a responsible amount of borrowing, compared to state spending, and the fact that Maine pays its loans off in just 10 years.
