AUGUSTA, Maine — Pledges among lawmakers to work with their colleagues from the other party — which swirl around the beginning of legislative sessions in January like snowflakes — are on borrowed time.
Tick, tick, tick. The alarm goes off next week.
Or is it a time bomb?
On Wednesday, the new Legislature officially starts work. For the first time in almost two decades, Republicans control the Maine Senate and Democrats hold a majority in the House. If the protracted negotiations that took place around seemingly simple matters on Dec. 3, the day legislators were sworn in and elected leaders, are any indication, promises to work across the aisle could quickly evolve into partisan trench warfare.
By Friday, Gov. Paul LePage will begin what will be months of driving the policy agenda when he releases his proposal for the two-year state budget that must be in place by July 1. Though there will be hundreds of bills that lawmakers will agree upon, a relative few will make the 127th Legislature look partisan and dysfunctional — and the governor’s budget looms as the most significant of them.
No reason to hold back
There’s no question the proposal will be bold. There were whispers during the gubernatorial campaign that LePage was telling supporters at private events something to the effect of “if they thought I was bold before, wait until they see me after I’m re-elected.”
LePage has more support among Mainers than ever, based on November election results, and any notion that Republicans might try to distance themselves from the governor, as they did to some degree through more than 180 vetoes in the past four years, is a remnant of the past. Not that LePage, who has long said that the chief executive shouldn’t be judged on etiquette, cares.
What to expect in the governor’s budget plan
— Tax cuts. LePage has long celebrated the income tax cuts he led to enactment in 2011. Since then he has said consistently that he’d like to eliminate the income tax altogether, lower the estate tax, and last year, he tried to send a question to statewide referendum that would have asked voters if they want $100 million in tax cuts.
— The battle over municipal revenue sharing will continue. In addition to cutting taxes and spending at the state level, LePage is trying to force towns and cities to do the same. He tried and failed to eliminate municipal revenue sharing but said shortly after his re-election that he has a scheme up his sleeve to send municipal revenue sharing straight to property taxpayers, instead of to their towns and cities.
Democrats still hold some cards
— Despite losing majority control of the Senate, the Democrats still hold a majority in the House, which means LePage and Republicans won’t be able to enact anything without some Democratic support.
— The battering Democrats took in the election in a way is an opportunity for them to re-craft their message, join in efforts at welfare reform and help create jobs. The latter is clearly their early strategy. House Speaker Mark Eves of North Berwick made jobs and the economy the core of his acceptance speech and House Majority Leader Jeff McCabe of Skowhegan had the same message in this week’s Democratic radio address. Their specific proposals are presumably waiting in the wings.
— Democrats still have an overall majority in the State House, which means they hold the edge on most of the legislative committees. Republicans looking to bring their bills to House and Senate votes will have to overcome those committee majorities, which could lead to more bills than ever dying before they ever reach the third floor of the State House.
— John Martin is back. The Democrat from Eagle Lake, known as the Earl of Eagle Lake, was first elected to the Legislature in 1964 and served as speaker of the House for an unprecedented 20 years. Martin lost his seat in 2012 but returns to the House this year. It’s not just his long service that makes Martin formidable. His grasp of the legislative process, as well as his steel-trap memory of how money flows through state government, make him a one-man powerhouse. His influence will be felt early and often.
Bipartisanship? Where?
They’re already playing hardball. Even the re-election of Eves as House speaker, which for many was seen as a foregone conclusion, took hours upon hours and lasted late into the evening of Dec. 3. The word at the time was that behind-the-scenes negotiations led by House Minority Leader Ken Fredette, R-Newport, delayed Eves’ confirmation, though ultimately Fredette supported Eves and led his Republican colleagues to a unanimous vote.
Tick, tick, tick.
