AUGUSTA, Maine — As a snapshot in time, it looks bad right now for Gov. Paul LePage and many of his policy priorities. But is it really?
The moment everyone who is tuned into machinations at the State House has been waiting for — a final Appropriations Committee decision on LePage’s biennial state budget proposal — arrived at just after midnight Friday with a 9-4 vote that will move debate of the spending plan to the floor of the House and Senate.
What does 9-4 mean?
It shows where the disagreement is on the committee and by extension, in the Legislature. The “9” side includes all of the Democrats (presumably; more on that later) and the 20 Republicans in the Senate. On the “4” side is the 68-member House Republican caucus and LePage.
It means there are two versions of the budget for lawmakers to choose from. The mere presence of the minority budget (the “4” side) means that instead of a two-way choice between the budget or a state shutdown, lawmakers can vote for one budget or the other. That means they can say, during their next campaign, for instance, that they never voted in a way that triggered a state shutdown even though if the current divide holds when it’s time to vote, everyone will share blame for a shutdown.
The math shows that the budget can win a majority in both chambers, right?
Right, but in reality this is a 50/50 draw. Because we’re so close to the end of the fiscal year on June 30, the budget needs to be enacted as an “emergency measure” so it can go into effect in time. That requires a two-thirds vote in both the House and Senate. Democrats and Senate Republicans are trying to create a narrative that House Republicans would be to blame for a vote against the budget but the reality is that the Legislature as a whole has failed to find compromise because various factions have dug in their heels.
Why does it look bad for LePage?
The version of the budget with the most support is scrubbed of LePage’s fingerprints.
— Because of all those 9-4 votes, gone from the document is LePage’s tax reform proposal and more important to the governor, any income tax cut.
— Gone is his proposal to eliminate municipal revenue sharing, a monthly payment the state makes to towns and cities based on a percentage of the sales, service provider, personal and corporate income tax receipts. LePage calls it “municipal welfare.”
— Gone is his long-held goal of denying welfare benefits to what he calls “illegal aliens,” but whom critics say are legally present asylum seekers and other immigrants.
— Gone is LePage’s proposal for a less than 1 percent increase in state funding for public schools and flat-funding of the Maine Community College System. The Appropriations Committee has voted in increases for both.
— Gone is LePage’s proposal to eliminate taxes on military pensions, though appropriators supported a lesser cut for veterans that exempts their first $25,000 in earnings from income taxes.
Are Democrats on the verge of a major victory?
It’s too early to tell but if they win this battle it’ll be huge. LePage and the Republicans have used the results of last year’s disastrous election for the Democrats — when they lost control of the Senate, seats in the House and failed to unseat LePage — to claim voter mandates in favor of their policy initiatives. If Democrats can manage to fend off some of LePage’s core goals, like income tax cuts they say are too skewed to upper earners or welfare reform they say would leave too many Mainers literally out in the cold, it will rally support around their party’s core beliefs and establish their authority to block the Republican agenda in the Legislature and would help them in next year’s elections.
Yes, that seems like a win by simply holding the line — which is one of the reasons LePage has been criticizing Democrats as defenders of a flawed status quo — but simply thwarting the other side represents the closest thing to a win that anyone in the gridlocked Legislature could claim.
Allowing an income tax cut for upper earners would force Democrats to give in on one of their top priorities, undermine years of their arguments and potentially alienate allies. In 2011, Democrats were in the minority in both chambers and just like House Republicans today, had the power to block two-thirds majorities. But they conceded tax cuts to LePage in a budget bill — which progressive groups and other Democratic supporters across Maine have argued since were giveaways to the rich — which has been a sore spot ever since. Democrats have said they would support income tax cuts targeted squarely at the middle class, but that tax cuts for the rich are a nonstarter.
There could be a poison pill in the majority budget. One of the agreements made by Democratic leaders in their deal with Senate Republicans is to support an amendment to the Maine Constitution which would require a two-thirds vote of the Legislature to increase the income tax. Some House Democrats worry about such a provision because they say it could lead to severe cuts in social services and public school funding in an economic downturn. It remains to be seen whether those concerns translate to votes against the budget deal.
What about LePage?
He’s been an outsider in the budget talks for weeks. Though he could score a victory on his policy goals if House Republicans are successful at working diluted versions of his initiatives back onto the table, that victory won’t be his politically. Whether it’s on the income tax cut or welfare reform, he and Republicans can and will use what is happening right now against Democrats next year. But even his veto pen is useless at this point because the budget needs two-thirds support no matter what. That’s why he is already focused the post-budget battle on a citizen petition he has promised to spearhead with the goal of asking Mainers at referendum if they want to eliminate the income tax.
He is pushing the envelope when it comes to party unity. LePage continues to go to new heights to advance his goals and has been on full frontal attack against even members of his own party. He’s lambasted Senate Republicans by name — especially Senate President Mike Thibodeau — in news conferences and an organization that supports him attacked five Republican senators in robocalls last week.
LePage continues to take heat for blocking the sale of voter-approved conservation bonds, including from supporters and has said he will veto every Democratic bill if the Legislature doesn’t agree to tax cuts.
On Friday, according to a report by the Portland Press Herald, he rescinded 21 nominations to boards and advisory councils because he was upset by committee-level deliberations around his nominee to the Public Utilities Commission, even though the nominee was recommended in an 11-2 vote.
As was the case two years when he loudly and angrily decried a compromise budget, LePage’s behavior is drawing more attention than his policy positions. What’s different this year, is that he has broadened the focus of his rage to include Senate Republicans, along with “liberal Democrats.”
Meanwhile, LePage has been heaping praise on House Republicans — because they represent his last hope at coming out of this budget skirmish with at least a sliver of the sweeping tax reform package he proposed in January.
The Maine Republican Party has been fending off suggestions that it is fractured between moderates and tea party conservatives for years and the infighting right now in Augusta won’t help.
If everyone wants an income tax cut, what’s the problem?
Only a small circle of people know. The 10 members of legislative leadership are privy to hours upon hours of closed-door negotiations that have been going on since Tuesday when they took control of the budget talks from the Appropriations Committee. Even the leaders of that committee have said they don’t know what pieces are being discussed. One route out of this impasse that many outside the negotiations see as plausible is a modest income tax decrease balanced with, perhaps, leaving the sales tax rate at 5.5 percent instead of letting it go back to 5 percent. There appears to be room for compromise here.
Shrinking government is still on the table. Along with income tax cuts and welfare reform, reducing state spending is one of House Republicans’ three demands. One of the issues they’re referring to is the Democrats’ $40 million addition to public schools and bump for community colleges. Though there is wiggle room for negotiations here, this isn’t the issue that’s going to hold up passage of the budget.
That leaves welfare reform. The divide between Democrats and Republicans on many of LePage’s welfare reform initiatives has proven impassable in countless committee and legislative votes since LePage has taken office. There is little that Democrats could cave on this issue now, but there is also unlikely to be a time when Republicans have more political leverage on this issue than they have right now. That sets up a game of political chicken where whoever swerves will avoid the catastrophe now but pay the price later.
That’s the problem.
