WASHINGTON — The future of a landmark nuclear deal with Iran hinges partly on the votes of about a dozen U.S. senators, mostly Democrats, who will be key players in deciding whether a resolution of disapproval advances out of Congress.
So far, opponents of the deal don’t appear to have enough support in the Senate to reach the 67-vote supermajority needed to override a presidential veto. President Barack Obama has vowed to veto any resolution of disapproval that Congress passes.
But now the big question is whether Republicans and other critics of the deal can even muster the 60 votes needed to pass a resolution in the first place.
Republicans, with a 54-seat majority in the Senate and control of the House, largely oppose the deal, which would lift international sanctions against Iran in return for restrictions designed to prevent the regime from building a nuclear bomb. They are expected to vote en masse to reject it when lawmakers return from summer recess next month.
That leaves a dozen or so mostly Democratic senators who could provide the seven additional votes needed to avoid a filibuster and pass a resolution.
The senators — now the target of an intense lobbying campaign by both sides — include pro-Israel hawks, foreign policy thinkers and even a couple of moderate Republicans. Some represent constituencies, including Jewish voters, with strong views on the deal. Others come from conservative red states skeptical of Obama. Some are simply wrestling with the gravity of the highly complex issue.
On Tuesday, Obama got some welcome news when three key Democrats whose votes were uncertain — Sens. Barbara Boxer of California, Tim Kaine of Virginia and Bill Nelson of Florida — all endorsed the deal.
Here’s a look at some senators still in play, with an assessment of who might support — or reject — the deal.
Possible deal opponents
— Sen. Robert Menendez, D-New Jersey
Former chairman of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee and leading Democratic skeptic of the deal, Menendez has had strained relations with the White House on this and other issues. At a hearing on the deal, he questioned whether sanctions would “snap back” in the event of Iranian cheating as the White House has claimed. He’s a safe bet to vote against the deal.
— Sen. Susan Collins, R-Maine
One of the few remaining Republican moderates, Collins is unafraid of siding with Democrats, which has led some to speculate she might support the deal. But she has voiced strong concerns about the last-minute decision to lift the conventional arms embargo against Iran over a 5- to 8-year period. When the agreement was first announced Collins said “a verifiable diplomatic agreement that prevents Iran’s pursuit of nuclear weapons and dismantles its nuclear infrastructure is the desired outcome; however, it is far from clear that this agreement will accomplish those goals.”
Could go either way
— Sen. Richard Blumenthal, D-Connecticut
A Brooklyn-born and Ivy League-educated first-term senator, Blumenthal is better known for his legal fights against the tobacco industry than his foreign policy experience. He will be heavily lobbied on both sides as a Jewish senator with strong ties to Israel.
— Sen. Joe Donnelly, D-Indiana
He’s a red-state moderate Democrat and Catholic who has emerged as a strong, but low-key, presence since joining the Senate in 2012.
— Sen. Jeff Flake, R-Arizona
Flake is a member of the Foreign Relations Committee and among the most conservative senators on fiscal issues. But unusual among the newer Republican senators, he’s not overtly hawkish against the deal. He holds a global view of foreign policy after having lived and worked in Africa.
“We’ve got to judge it against not what’s ideal, but what’s the alternative,” he said recently.
— Sen. Heidi Heitkamp, D-North Dakota
The moderate first-term Democrat from conservative North Dakota has not been shy about bucking party leadership.
— Sen. Charles E. Schumer, D-New Yorker
As the Democratic leader-in-waiting with the 2016 retirement of Senate Minority Leader Harry Reid, D-Nevada, and the highest ranking Jewish senator, Schumer’s vote will hold sway over other Democrats in Congress.
“I’m not going to let pressure or politics or party influence my decision,” he said.
Both sides will work hard to win his support.
Possible deal supporters
— Sen. Michael Bennet, D-Colorado
He’s a longtime Obama ally and former state education superintendent who is running for re-election in one of the toughest races in 2016.
— Sen. Ben Cardin, D-Maryland
As the top Democrat on the Foreign Relations Committee, Cardin brokered the bill giving Congress a vote on a resolution of disapproval for the Iran deal. He’s seen as a foreign policy moderate whose role as a leading Jewish senator could be helpful to the White House.
— Sen. Chris Coons, D-Delaware
A lawyer and former divinity school student, Coons serves on the Foreign Relations Committee. He studied in Africa and brings a global perspective to deliberations.
— Sen. Joe Manchin, D-West Virginia
The outspoken former governor from a conservative state often charts his own course in the Senate. But he has spoken favorably of the deal.
“This agreement is an opportunity to stop Iran from acquiring a nuclear weapon,” Manchin said.
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