Much has been written about the Trump phenomenon, but few have paid attention to the Republican National Committee’s ace-in-the-hole, which could prevent his name from even being placed in nomination at the 2016 GOP National Convention.
Get acquainted with Rule 40b.
First, some background.
In August 2012, at the last GOP National Convention in Tampa, the party establishment was in a dither over the fervor for Ron Paul from liberty-leaners and for Rick Santorum from religio-leaners.
They wanted a Mitt Romney coronation, not a spirited issues debate.
Paul managed to show up with a majority of delegates from four states, which included Maine. The then-existing rules stipulated that any candidate with five states could be placed in nomination, making Paul’s numbers too close for comfort for the establishment, which did not want him on the platform.
Old-timers remember a Paul-style insurgency from Barry Goldwater at the 1960 convention. Nominee Richard Nixon graciously gave the podium to Goldwater who delivered the “Grow up, conservatives” speech, which launched his successful 1964 nomination run.
Later, Ronald Reagan’s insurgent 1976 campaign podium appearance launched his successful 1980 nomination.
Twice burned, they’ll not allow that any more.
With legal maneuvering on the part of Romney’s lawyers, the credentials committee unseated many Paul delegates, including more than half of Maine’s delegation legally elected at the 2012 Maine State GOP Convention.
Paul’s name was kept out of the official proceedings, and he wasn’t even allowed to speak. There would be no olive branch toward party unity by even allowing Paul a non-prime time appearance from the official podium.
For months prior to the convention, quietly and without much public scrutiny, a committee packed with establishment acolytes drafted wholesale changes in the rules for 2016, which raised the bar and made it even harder for an upstart to take on the prevailing establishment.
(Rules for the next presidential cycle are adapted during the current presidential cycle convention, so the 2020 rules will be voted on in 2016.)
Speaker John Boehner got the new rules enacted by a questionable fast gavel. Listen to the video below to determine if you can tell whether the ayes or nays prevailed. When delegates ran to their state microphones to call for roll call vote, the mics were cut off, and they were never acknowledged.
This resulted in a walkout of libertarian and tea party delegates from the convention floor, which was led by several Maine delegates. It is considered the titular start of the establishment versus libertarian/tea party war, which led to activists across the country renouncing their GOP affiliation.
Mark Willis, who had just been elected the Republican national committeeman from Maine and one of the Paul delegates, led unsuccessful attempts to roll back or amend the rules at RNC meetings in early 2013, where he was met with procedural and legalistic roadblocks from Republican National Chair Reince Priebus and his Romney minions.
Finally, Willis quit the Republican Party in August 2013, a move related to the rules, as he explained in a BDN OpEd. Many members of the Republican State Committee followed and resigned from the GOP.
(Disclosure: I was state chair of the Republican Liberty Caucus at the time and argued against their move, holding hope that causes for change could be carried forward internally. I did not resign from the GOP until Lincoln’s birthday in 2015, when I saw the corporatist oligarchical corruption endemic in both major parties.)
Now we jump forward to present day.
While media and casual party members are gnashing their teeth over the prospects of a Trump candidacy, the political insiders within the bowels of the RNC headquarters are calm, cool and collected. No matter how unpopular their chosen one, they always manage to get him nominated — think Dole, McCain and Romney.
For 2016, they have Rule 40b embedded in the party rules for selecting the nominee.
Basically, it requires that a presidential candidate “shall demonstrate the support of a majority of the delegates from each of eight or more states” prior to their name being placed in nomination. And the certification must be on file with the convention secretary prior to opening nominations.
Now Trump might be a smart man when it comes to the art of the deal in real estate, but he hasn’t shown mastery of the grassroots political process to produce a majority of delegates in key states, nor does he have a history of local allies at the precinct level from whence delegates emerge.
The bandwagon starts in January with the Iowa caucus and New Hampshire primary. Pay no attention to the percentage of statewide vote, which the media will report. Look precinct-by-precinct at the delegate accumulation to see whether or not a candidate won enough delegates to get the state’s majority.
Majorities in eight states are a tough hurdle for even established political pros. Despite unlimited money, that threshold could be a major hurdle for a political tyro. And the establishment has proven time and again that it can win with lawyers what it fails to achieve in grassroots movement.
Retired political consultant Vic Berardelli is the author of “The Politics Guy Campaign Tips – How to Win a Local Election.” Now an independent unenrolled voter, he is a former member of the Republican State Committee and of the Republican Liberty Caucus National Board.