AUGUSTA, Maine — In most presidential campaigns, Maine is of little consequence.
With Maine’s mere four electoral votes in the general election and a caucus nominating process as opposed to a primary election, most candidates find little reason to come to the Pine Tree State. Yet already this year — with the general election still 14 months away — four presidential hopefuls have visited: Republicans Chris Christie, Rand Paul and Carly Fiorina, and independent Bernie Sanders, who seeks the Democrats’ nomination.
A fifth presidential candidate, Republican hopeful Jeb Bush, held a private Maine fundraiser in June.
Hillary Clinton was here last year to stump for Democrat Mike Michaud for governor, though by then she was already a presumed candidate.
So what is it about Maine that is attracting presidential candidates?
Don’t look now, but New Hampshire is RIGHT THERE.
Along with Iowa, which holds the first caucus, New Hampshire receives massive attention because it holds the nation’s first primary. The ability to gain traction early in a race is crucial, especially when there are as many declared candidates as there are this year, so presidential contenders flock to the Granite State to bask in the national media glow.
Looking for early momentum in the race, candidates spend heavily on advertising in New Hampshire. Some of that money trickles to Portland television stations, which penetrate the eastern and southern New Hampshire markets. Already, Republican Ben Carson is running ads on Portland television stations.
If you’re already in New Hampshire, why not swing through Maine? Or at least drop some bucks on Portland television advertising in hopes of influencing voters in two states?
Some candidates have unique reasons to come to Maine.
Kentucky Sen. Rand Paul’s visit to Freeport last week was strongly reminiscent of a visit by his father, former presidential candidate Ron Paul, in 2012. In fact, Rand Paul visited the same restaurant as his father did, which is owned by libertarian supporter Linda Bean. Ron Paul’s supporters managed to take over the state convention in 2012 and choose Paul over eventual Republican nominee Mitt Romney.
The ensuing battle at the Republican National Convention in Florida, which saw half of Maine’s Paul delegates shut out, gained Paul loads of national press, even long after Romney was on a clear track to the nomination.
New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie, who visited Portland in July for at least the fifth time since Gov. Paul LePage has been in office, returned to Maine this year to gather LePage’s endorsement, which was the first in the 2016 presidential race by any governor. If Christie can tap into LePage’s formidable political machine for a strong showing in Maine, it could give his campaign a boost before the focus shifts to primaries in southern states, where he’s not likely to fare as well.
Former Hewlett-Packard CEO Carly Fiorina, who visited South Portland Thursday, had been invited to the Maine Heritage Policy Center’s annual Freedom and Opportunity luncheon months ago, according to organizers, long before she had gained the modest but seemingly growing support she has now. Her visit came a day after Republican state Sen. Amy Volk of Scarborough, a potential sweet spot for campaign contributions, endorsed Fiorina.
For trailing candidates, such as Christie, Fiorina and Rand Paul, a good showing in the Maine caucuses — which typically occur in February, fairly early in the campaign season — could provide enough fuel (and cause for new donations) to create the impression of viability. A breath of life from Maine could be the life support a lagging campaign would need to move from the brink of shutdown to claims of momentum heading into Super Tuesday.
As Maine goes, so goes the nation?
This statement is embedded deep in the American political lexicon, dating back to the 1800s when Maine held its gubernatorial and congressional elections in September instead of November. Maine’s gubernatorial elections predicted the party outcome for the presidential race in 19 out of the 26 presidential elections between 1832 and 1932.
In some political matters, such as same-sex marriage and taxpayer-funded elections, Maine remains a national leader. To apply the old axiom to modern presidential elections, however, is probably a stretch.
For many Maine voters, this is Bush country.
Despite a recent veer to the right for Maine Republicans, Maine remains a politically moderate state, which could arguably mean that many Republicans and independents could opt for former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush. Maine’s moderate senior senator, Republican Susan Collins, has already endorsed Bush, and let’s not forget that to some degree, this is the Bush dynasty’s home state.
Former President George H.W. Bush has a home in Kennebunkport and Jeb Bush is reportedly building one here. Even an adopted home could provide a home-field advantage in a crowded field likely to yield a tight nomination race.
Bush is fighting an uphill battle against surprise frontrunner Donald Trump — and trying to fight back against Trump labeling him a moderate — which harms Bush with the more ideologically conservative voters likely to participate in caucuses and primaries.
This early in the campaign, nobody is counting Bush out. If support solidifies behind Bush as some of the dozen or so Republican hopefuls bail out of the race, Maine could become a target for other candidates’ attempts to chip away at him.
And although it’s the kind of political intrigue that happens far more often in films and pundits’ imaginations than on convention floors, a lesser candidate could release his or her delegates at a national convention to help determine the nominee if the frontrunner lacks enough delegates to secure the nomination.
There is a financial incentive for grassroots operatives to be active in the presidential election.
For upper-level elected officials, such as the governor and the congressional delegation, outside financial support from cash-flush third-party groups is more crucial and influential than ever. But those groups carefully calculate where their money will have the most effect, according to Lance Dutson, a Republican political consultant.
“The more active and successful the ground game is and the more it looks like a state party has its act together, the more resources could come into the state from national groups as a result,” Dutson said. “If the party is really active, they can say we’ve got the volunteers and we’ve got the ground game set up. Otherwise, a group like the [Republican National Committee] would have to send people up here.”
One example of how this dynamic is playing out in Maine was earlier this week when the Maine Republican Party was targeting Democratic presidential candidate Hillary Clinton in fundraising emails.
With Republican U.S. Rep. Bruce Poliquin of the 2nd District making his first re-election bid — history shows first-term congressional incumbents to be the most vulnerable — spending, energy and campaigning for what Democrats see as a seat they could win back should make the 2nd District one of the most hotly contested in the nation. In turn, each party’s ground game for the U.S. House seat could pay dividends for its presidential candidate in northern and western Maine, where local GOP candidates have fared well in recent elections.
The absence of a U.S. Senate race in Maine this year and the lock U.S. Rep. Chellie Pingree has on the more progressive 1st District means the 2nd District is likely to be the battleground for partisan outside groups looking to alter the national political dynamic — by spending big on like-minded candidates for Congress and the White House.
Which means …
There’s a chance, albeit a tiny one, that Maine could actually matter in a razor-tight contest.
Maine is one of only two states that splits its electoral votes in presidential contests. Though the state has voted Democrat in each presidential election since 1992, the 2nd Congressional District in central and northern Maine is more Republican than the 1st District. If the election ever came down to a one- or two-vote Electoral College margin, as Maine went, so would go the nation.
But that’s in the fantasy realm at this point.
