No throwback paint schemes are scheduled for Saturday night’s race at the Richmond International Raceway. But there are likely to be some age-old tactics when it comes to race strategy and pit work.
The field for this year’s Chase for the NASCAR Sprint Cup will be decided by race’s end and that means drivers on the bubble who are in position to make it on points are faced with a dilemma. A victory would secure both a spot in the Chase and momentum for winning the title.
But will that be worth the risk?
Jamie McMurray will qualify for the Chase as long as he takes the green flag in the Chip Ganassi team’s Chevy. That leaves four drivers — Ryan Newman, Jeff Gordon, Paul Menard and Clint Bowyer — who can earn the final four positions since only 11 drivers have qualified thus far by winning a race this season.
It’s likely that Newman, Gordon and Menard and their respective teams will concentrate on their point totals. In other words, they’ll be points racing, a time-honored tradition despite the Chase’s current emphasis on winning.
Each of these drivers can control his own destiny and secure a spot in the Chase by hitting his points mark regardless if there is a new winner — Newman by finishing 31st or better, Gordon by finishing 17th or better and Menard with a 10th place finish. If there is a repeat winner, Newman and Gordon will make the Chase regardless of their finishing position.
Gordon, Newman and Bowyer all have Top 10 driver ratings at Richmond according to NASCAR’s statistics bureau. Bowyer is fourth, Gordon fifth and Newman ninth in the Driver Ratings, which include a variety of statistics pegged to a points system.
The odd man out could be Bowyer. If a new winner for the 2015 season emerges at Richmond, he’ll need to gain at least eleven points to surpass Menard, 18 points to pass Gordon and 32 points to exceed Newman. At the very least, Bowyer cannot allow the two drivers behind him to overtake him — Aric Almirola (who would have to gain 30 points) or Kasey Kahne (32 points). Absent a new winner, Bowyer can secure a spot in the Chase with a 28th place finish.
If Bowyer runs into misfortune and happens to tie in points with Almirola or Kahne, he would advance on the basis of a third-place finish at Sonoma, Calif., this summer.
Almirola and Kahne are among those who could post a first win of the season at Richmond, although they only have three Top 5 finishes between them this year and seven Top 10s.
Longshots include Kyle Larson, who has not posted a Top 10 at Richmond in three starts, and Greg Biffle, who continues to be mired in the Roush Fenway Racing team’s slump. Like Larson, Austin Dillon continues to occasionally look like a driver ready to win his first Sprint Cup race.
Tony Stewart is the wild card. In 2011, Stewart raced his way into the Chase on points and then swept five of the ten Chase races to win the championship. This year, he’ll need to start his winning skein earlier. He can’t make it to the Chase on points and can only get in with a win.