The National Monument Tango and the presidential primaries have combined to create a surreal mix of reality show, drama and fantasy. It’s depressing but addictive.
North Woods Law
It seems a foregone conclusion that President Barack Obama will designate the Quimby holdings as a national monument sometime after the November election. Obama has frequently demonstrated his willingness to use — and push — executive power. There is ample precedent for such environmental policy — the Atlantic salmon endangered species listing was announced by the Clinton administration in exactly that manner after Bush-Gore in 2000.
House of Cards
Our congressional delegation has been maneuvering to support, oppose or negotiate the national monument designation. Reps. Chellie Pingree (D-1st District) and Bruce Poliquin (R-2nd District) reflect the positions of their parties, districts and challengers. Sens. Angus King (I-Maine) and Susan Collins (R-Maine) are not park supporters, but they are not opponents either. Both have long touted their green credentials. Neither will be on the ballot again until 2018. Their principal objective is to negotiate the best terms of surrender possible and not get blamed for it. They might make a cluck or two on the Senate floor after Obama signs the monument order, but it’s more likely that they call a lightning community forum at the University of Southern Maine where only park and monument supporters are on the stage.
Gov. Paul LePage proposed a bill last month to reverse property transfers if there is a federal monument designation. It is at least something, and a bipartisan effort at that. The bill has the virtue of increasing transparency, showing voters where their representatives stand. Its prospects in the Legislature, and in the federal courts if it comes to that, don’t seem promising.
The Apprentice, Game of Thrones
LePage has played another long shot as well: he endorsed Donald Trump, the likely Republican presidential nominee. Trump and LePage are similarly outspoken and politically incorrect. Prior to endorsing him, LePage had stated he was “not a big fan” of Trump, which is not an uncommon response from limited government, Constitution-minded voters. But a long shot is better than no shot. Trump has picked up the class warfare card tossed out by the left and turned it around, galvanizing frustrated voters against the political class. LePage has experience at that card table.
If Hillary Clinton is not indicted and she wins the election, the monument is a done deal, and King and Collins can negotiate the park treaty. Maybe one of the concessions is the 2nd District gets to continue to exist regardless of the 2020 census results. That would probably make Emily Cain happy.
If Trump wins the election, he might take the counsel of his loyal bannerman LePage and try to reverse Obama’s order, but federal ownership and control are not easily undone. If President Trump has the same relationship with Congress that LePage has with the Maine Legislature, legislative fixes seem unlikely. Trump is likely to use executive power as much if not more than Obama.
In 2018, King will be challenged, probably by LePage and a Democrat to be named later. Collins could be running for the Blaine House. A President Clinton will have appointed at least two U.S. Supreme Court justices, who may be ruling on several challenges to the Quimby national monument. A President Trump will … well, it’s not clear what he might be doing. It doesn’t seem likely it would involve limited government and less crony capitalism, but whatever it is, it will be terrific, strong, beautiful and yuuge.
Next season will be great.
Jon Reisman is an associate professor of economics and public policy at the University of Maine at Machias. He can be contacted at jreisman@maine.edu.