State and local officials who track Maine tourism are forecasting a stellar summer season, even when factoring in a weak Canadian dollar.
“It’s going to be better than last year. That’s my prediction,” said Holly Roberts, president of the Greater York Region Chamber of Commerce. “We’re taking calls daily. We have a long list of people who have requested our guide book. And I can tell you, it’s busier now than it was a year ago.”
Those predictions come on the heels of an incredibly successful 2015 summer. Doug Davidson, chief financial officer of the Maine Turnpike Authority, said the year-end traffic transactions on the turnpike in 2015 were up 5.2 percent over 2014, “which was just under the all-time record.”
This year, although he’s budgeting for a 1 percent increase in traffic, he’s expecting it to rise 2.5 percent. The April numbers are bearing that out. In April 2015, after that awful winter, traffic was up 6.6 percent, he said. In 2016, already traffic has increased 2.2 percent over the previous year.
“That tells me people are feeling they can travel,” Davidson said. “New England itself is doing well. People are spending money. And we’re not alone. We participate in the New England Toll Authority, and we’re all expecting to see a more than 2 percent increase in traffic.”
Adding to his prediction, he said, is a long-range summer weather forecast that looks great. “The predictions are June is going to be OK, but July and August are going to be dry and positive.” He also expects gas prices to remain low, perhaps inching up 10 cents over the course of the summer and topping out between $2.30 and $2.50 a gallon.
The numbers Davidson is tracking with regard to traffic, Doug Dugal of the Maine Innkeepers Association and Maine Restaurant Association is tracking in his field. Both lodging and restaurant visits exploded in 2015 — up 5.4 percent and 5.8 percent, respectively.
“And I see no reason why we shouldn’t have a great year this year,” Dugal said. “All the trend numbers are pointing in that direction.”
He cites many of the same factors as Davidson, but holds out two reasons in particular. With heating oil prices lower this winter, many people are spending thousands of dollars less than in previous years to heat their homes.
“Maybe they’re spending $20 every other day instead of $20 a day. That’s real money. So people have more disposable income when they think about their summer,” he said.
He said his industries are also seeing a trend in an increasing number of newly-retired baby boomers.
“Baby boomers are not going to be on vacation all the time,” Dugal said. “The Great Recession put a reality check on that. So there’s some modesty in the realm of travel. But there’s 70 million of them looking for something to do, and that’s going to push the market going forward.”
Canadian dollar
Canadian visitors have long been a mainstay of the tourist industry in Maine, particularly at the beaches. But the devaluation of the loonie, the Canadian dollar, has raised concern in the Maine tourist industry. As of Friday, the loonie was 80 cents on the U.S. dollar, but was at 75 cents earlier in the week.
Carolann Ouellette, director of the Maine Office of Tourism, said there was a dip in Canadian numbers last year, particularly in the shoulder seasons of June and September and October. Because of this, the agency is undertaking a “Canada-focused deep dive research investigation.” With Canadian visitors accounting for $856 million in direct spending in Maine in 2015 — one-fifth of all tourism-related retail spending — she believes the study was critical.
Among other things, it will explore what motivates Eastern Canadians to visit Maine, where they like to go and what other economic issues besides the exchange rate factor into their vacation, she said.
“It’s definitely a downer,” Dugal, of the innkeepers association, said of the exchange rate, “particularly in places like Old Orchard Beach that have a high frequency of Canadians. It seems they lost a fair amount of Canadian business.”
In York, at the Long Beach Motor Inn, owner Gary Grossman is offering an “at par” deal to Canadians in the off season this year through June 24 and again Aug. 21 to Oct 29. Those staying four or more nights will pay what they would pay in Canada for their room.
“I knew what I was doing when I started this last October. I knew Canadian money was going to plunge, and it did,” said Grossman, who was born in Canada. He said the program is “our way of saying, ‘We know you’re having a difficult time and we still want you to come and enjoy the beach.’”
Roberts at the Greater York Chamber has been encouraging her members to consider a similar program this spring. “I’m saying, ‘Pay attention to this. The best thing you can do is be proactive.’”
But Dugal and Ouellette agree that in the heart of the tourist season — the second half of July and most of August — tourists are going to abound in any event. Ouellette said she did not expect the number of Canadian visitors to drop even more this summer.
“I don’t think at this point, anyway, it’s going to be a huge detriment,” she said.
That’s because, whether they make reservations months in advance or check hotel aggregation apps the Thursday before the weekend, visitors typically flock to Maine in the heart of summer.
“We have three times the reservations we had last year at the Stone’s Throw,” said York Beach businessman Joe Lipton. “They love to come to York Beach, and they want to come back.”
“People may wait until the last minute — that’s the way a lot of people are doing things these days, but I’ve been at this 38 years and I know the rooms will get filled,” said Grossman of the Long Beach Motor Inn. “They come. They always come.”