Steven Biel: On Tuesday night, WMTW’s Paul Merrill said he didn’t think anyone expected the Republican District 1 primary to be so close. He apparently doesn’t read the “Left Brain Right Brain” column — a big mistake for those who want to be in the know. We called it a week ago.
Lance Dutson: Low turnout and a simmering rage stoked by Gov. LePage means it’s harder and harder for a rational Republican to get through a primary. Voters have gotten used to his ridiculous behavior and now expect the same from local candidates. That’s why Mark Holbrook, a crackpot candidate whose highest previous political achievement was losing a legislative race by nearly 40 points in 2014, may end up winning the party’s nomination for Congress.
Steven: Pingree’s team is certainly rooting for a Holbrook win. A week ago they went after him in an email, which Holbrook used to validate himself with GOP voters. I don’t know if they intentionally aimed to boost Holbrook, but it definitely had the effect.
Lance: The one silver lining is that the general election against Pingree may not be as much of a resource drain as it usually is. If Holbrook wins, Republicans who would otherwise waste time and money helping Ande can focus on races that are actually winnable.
Steven: What’s your take on Rep. Justin Chenette beating Rep. Barry Hobbins in the Senate primary in Saco?
Lance: That surprised me. Justin Chenette is a hard worker, but Barry Hobbins is a well-respected lawmaker with a record of accomplishment. He got into trouble by hiring the wrong campaign team though — his campaign consultant, Chris O’Neill, had some high-profile corruption problems lately that caused the attorney general to get involved. Not exactly the kind of guy you want running your Senate campaign.
Steven: In Portland, Rep. Mark Dion won despite the incumbent senator, Anne Haskell, endorsing Portland City Councilor Jill Duson. Duson was the only one of the three candidates in the race not to endorse the Stand Up for Students initiative and has generally cast a more centrist political profile that apparently didn’t play as well.
Lance: Only in Portland would Jill Duson be considered a centrist.
Steven: Democrats are also celebrating incumbent Republican Sen. Linda Baker’s defeat by tea partier Guy Lebida in Sagadahoc County. That makes our road to the state Senate majority one step easier.
Lance: The governor placed robocalls in favor of the far-right Lebida in order to knock Linda Baker out of the Senate, and it appears he was successful. Democrats will win this seat in a landslide. Linda Baker is a thoughtful, smart and honest senator, respected by colleagues on both sides of the aisle. LePage’s kamikaze attack on her once again shows this governor’s harmful effect on the party.
Steven: We also saw the political comeback of Shenna Bellows, your old rival from Susan Collins’ 2014 reelection. And I’ll make a prediction right now that she’ll win the general, be in leadership and start getting mentioned as a possible candidate for governor shortly after.
Lance: I agree with you about leadership. Shenna’s got a bright political future if she can be patient enough to wait for the right race. But jumping into the governor’s race in 2018 would be the exact wrong thing for her to do for her career, so by all means, please keep encouraging her.
What happened in your home district? Diane Russell raised over $100,000 and came in third place?
Steven: I was a strong volunteer supporter of Diane’s, which is why I didn’t use this space to comment on the race during the campaign. Ben Chipman went negative early. His surrogates attacked Diane — viciously and unfairly — as corrupt. By the time Diane responded, it was too late and backfired.
Lance: I like Diane. Most Republicans would tell you that, despite her ultra-progressive ideology, she was always reasonable to work with. And Diane showed she could bring thousands of new small donors into the party — which, for some reason, your party seems to count as a negative. In an otherwise awful day for Republicans, seeing Democrats kick a powerhouse fundraiser like her to the curb was one thing my side can feel good about.
Steven Biel is former campaign director for MoveOn.org and president of the Portland-based political consulting firm Steven Biel Strategies. Lance Dutson, a principal of Red Hill Strategies, is a Republican communications consultant. He has served on the campaign teams of U.S. Sens. Susan Collins and Kelly Ayotte, as well as the Maine Republican Party.