The United Kingdom’s referendum vote on June 24 to exit the European Union leaves more questions than answers. Once the U.K. officially notifies the EU of its intent to leave — which British Prime Minister David Cameron intends to leave to his successor in the fall — it will have two years to negotiate the terms of divorce.
There is no precedent of a state leaving the EU, and there is no experience on which the U.K. or EU can rely, although there are states (Norway, Iceland and Switzerland) that benefit from special arrangements without EU membership.
Further complicating an already murky picture is the revived prospect of Scottish secession from the U.K., only two years after narrowly voting down such a proposal. The Scots voted heavily against Brexit, and Scotland’s First Minister Nicola Sturgeon has made clear another independence referendum will take place. Great Britain faces being downgraded to “Little England” in a union with Wales and Northern Ireland and less able to influence European and global affairs. Although the referendum vote is legally nonbinding, the next U.K. government is unlikely to buck the outcome.
Renewed efforts to hold similar referenda elsewhere in the EU could see a further unraveling of the largest supranational sovereign organization in the world. EU Commission President Jean-Claude Junker has said there will be no special deals for a U.K. outside the EU, but there will be strong pressure from European states to minimize the disruption of Brexit, especially to trade. The 27 other EU governments, however, will not want to take steps that increase the likelihood of exit of more member states, such as The Netherlands or Denmark. The prospect of EU enlargement, which has done so much to stabilize Central Europe and the Balkans, is sure to decline, with implications for stability in countries such as Ukraine, Serbia, Bosnia, Albania and Macedonia.
The most tangible impact of Brexit may be found in the financial arena. London’s status as the center of European and global finance is likely to face a challenge. Over the last two decades, Frankfurt, Germany, has emerged as a rival financial hub, and it is sure to gain a fillip from the Brexit.
There are multiple reasons for the Brexit victory. Polls show a surge in immigration was a major cause. Britain’s foreign born population has more than doubled to just over 12 percent since 1971. This influx was a common complaint of Brexit supporters.
Equally important was a feeling among the populace that it lacked a political voice within the EU. The U.K. historically has had an arms-length relationship with Europe, gaining special carve outs on social-labor regulations and declining to adopt the euro. It is not a coincidence that British youth voted heavily for the U.K. to remain in the EU, while those over 50 disproportionately voted to exit, nostalgic for a bygone Britain.
British complaints about EU accountability reflects dissatisfaction over a lack of political voice. The EU recognized this problem and dropped its goal of “ever-greater union” (read centralization of authority in Brussels), but anti-EU sentiment still is at historic highs around the continent. The backlash against the EU has been building for at least a decade, with countries such as Ireland, Netherlands and France defeating various EU referenda, although not on membership.
What are the implications for United States? U.S. influence in Europe is likely to decline without the U.K. in the EU, and U.S. relations with Germany may intensify as a result. Russia can be expected to take advantage of European disarray and disunity, if the Brexit leads to such a situation. There are U.S.-U.K. parallels on immigration. The U.S. foreign-born population rose from 4.7 percent in 1970 to 13.1 percent in 2013. This is below the 1890 record of 14.8 percent but could rise to 18 percent by 2065, according to Pew Research Center.
Donald Trump’s candidacy took off after he took aim at illegal immigrants. Like the U.K. Leave campaign, Trump claims he will take back “our” country, and punish the political establishment. Cameron, the British prime minister, wrongly assumed the Brexit campaign would fail. Those who assume Trump does not tap into, or exploit (depending on your point of view), popular apprehension over immigration risk keeping Cameron company come November.
Kenneth Hillas is a retired U.S. diplomat and adjunct professor in University of Maine’s School of Policy and International Affairs.