AUGUSTA, Maine — The firestorm surrounding Gov. Paul LePage in the past two weeks reached never-before-seen intensity — even for the man whose tenure has been characterized by brash rhetoric, unconventional governing and a willingness to make politics personal.
Legislative Republicans’ decision to oppose a special session to consider disciplining LePage means he will face no practical repercussions for the time being, but will he be held accountable by voters on Nov. 8? LePage is not up for re-election, but if voters send a wave of Democrats to Augusta, the governor and his conservative agenda could suffer the effects of his fiery tongue for the next two years.
On the other hand, LePage has proven before that attacks from Democrats on the campaign trail have had mixed results at best. After losing long-held majorities in the House and Senate when LePage was first elected in 2010, Democrats rebounded in 2012, largely by running against the fiery LePage and his policies.
But the governor and his party roared back in 2014 with LePage amassing a record number of votes and Republicans gaining 10 seats in the House and majority control in the Senate. Democratic gubernatorial candidate Mike Michaud was sent home a loser, and LePage promptly proclaimed his victory to be a voter mandate.
Democrats have struggled to articulate a winning message in recent years and have been kept largely on defense by LePage, which has had some observers questioning whether another anti-LePage campaign is wise. However, LePage’s threats to a lawmaker and racially charged comments about drug dealers have him again at the forefront of the political conversation in Maine just two months before the election.
That raises the question: Is the fourth time making LePage the villain of their campaign strategy a charm for Democrats’ ambitions to take control of the State House?
Voters have noticed
Several candidates for the Legislature have told the Bangor Daily News that conversations at voters’ doors veered suddenly in late August when LePage left his now-infamous voicemail to Democratic Rep. Drew Gattine and suggested the most of Maine’s drug dealers were minorities from outside Maine.
Democrat Jonathan Fulford, who is running for the Waldo County Senate seat in a rematch against Senate President Mike Thibodeau, said he has found anger at LePage to be more potent among Republican voters than Democrats and independents.
“The Republican doors are more vocally upset with the governor than the Democrats are. That is a complete change,” said Fulford, who lost to Thibodeau in 2014 by just 135 votes out of more than 18,000 cast. “It went from the most common thing that people wanted to talk about being the presidential election to now the most common thing people want to talk about is the behavior of the governor.”
Thibodeau, who has found himself at odds with LePage in past legislative matters, called for an apology and “corrective action” against LePage early in the controversy and for several days was the face of Republicans’ condemnation of LePage’s actions. He initially split with House Minority Leader Ken Fredette of Newport on whether the Legislation should convene on the issue, but Thibodeau eventually opted not to poll his members, blaming Democrats for politicizing the issue so close to an election.
“The governor has put Republicans in a very tough position,” Thibodeau said. “I hear it from both the left and the right. People from the right want me to support the governor more. People from the left are not satisfied that enough was done.”
One consequence of Thibodeau and Fredette not conducting polls of their caucuses is that most Republicans were not forced to publicly take a side in the controversy.
“I think the Democrats have a pretty weak message,” Thibodeau said. “They were going to talk about solar panels and whether that was the right decision. Now the discussion at the door is about the governor’s comments and behavior, and that’s unfortunate.”
Candidates from both sides said they’d rather talk about issues than the governor and have found voters who feel the same.
“I think I’m confident to say that there are an awful lot of other issues that are higher on people’s lists of priorities and concerns,” said Sen. Christopher Johnson, who is vying for re-election in Lincoln County against Dana Dow, a Republican who held the seat from 2004-2008 but lost a special election to Johnson in February 2012. Johnson won re-election in the 2012 general election and in 2014 against Les Fossel, whom he defeated by slight margins.
“People are struggling out there to make ends meet in the middle class right now,” Johnson said. “There are more things happening in this election, as strange as this election is, than the governor’s excesses and long string of offensive behavior.”
Engage about LePage?
Maine Democratic Party Chairman Phil Bartlett dismissed allegations that Democrats are playing election-year politics and trying, again, to campaign on an anti-LePage message. He said LePage is forcing that conversation.
“It’s not just one issue there or one bad comment there,” Bartlett said. “We’re dealing with a situation that Maine’s image nationally is suffering. The governor at every turn has made the situation worse. … That does create a real sense that there needs to be somebody pushing back against that.”
Jean-Marie Caterina of Scarborough, who is trying to unseat Republican Sen. Amy Volk in a southern Maine battleground district, said she is consumed with talk about LePage on the campaign trail.
“I don’t have to do any focusing on it; people bring it up at the doors,” she said. “One of the first things I hear about is, ‘What in the world are we going to do about Gov. LePage?’”
It’s the same for some Republicans. Rep. Kevin Battle, R-South Portland, is a retired police officer who narrowly beat a Democrat in 2014 in a three-way race that included a Green Party candidate. Democrats outnumber Republicans by nearly 20 percentage points in the district, and Battle faces a challenge against South Portland City Councilor Brad Fox. Battle said he was unsure what discipline LePage deserved, but he was one of only four House Republicans who voted this week to convene a special session.
Battle said he worries the LePage controversy will hurt Republicans.
“I think to a good number of voters it is going to matter because it’s portrayed that only a few are willing to do something about it and the rest want to sweep it under the rug,” he said. “People seem to have the perception that we’re doing nothing in Augusta and we’re not talking. I say, ‘No, we are. The only rudeness I’ve seen up there came from the governor.’”
Seth Berry of Bowdoinham, a former Democratic House leader who is vying to return to the Legislature against Republican Rep. Brian Hobart of Bowdoinham, has heard the same thing.
“I’m definitely hearing a concern about the need for civility in politics and the need to bring dignity to our civil discourse,” Berry said. “That’s high on voters’ list of things that people want to change.”
LePage’s staff did not respond to questions posed by the Bangor Daily News.
The big picture
Paul Mills, a political historian from Farmington, said there is nothing in the annals of elections in Maine that sheds light on whether LePage can be a factor in the elections even when he isn’t on the ballot. Presidential races usually are the biggest influence, though that might be changing.
“Paul LePage is, you might say, the magnetic north of almost all political thought in the state of Maine,” Mills said. “The needles are all pointing at him, one way or the other.”
Jason Savage, executive director of the Maine Republican Party, said he and others in the party initially were worried the latest controversy would drag down some Republicans but that those concerns have faded in recent days.
“Voters have been watching what the Democrats have been doing,” said Savage, referring to the pursuit of a special session, suggestions LePage is unfit for office and calls for his resignation. “That overreach has caused a backlash. We’re hearing a lot of people say, ‘I didn’t agree with what the governor said but I like the direction he’s going’ and ‘enough is enough.’”
Whatever the elections create for LePage and the Legislature, it will be tempting to view the results as a referendum on the governor, but that’s probably not wise with so many other factors at play, from turnout driven by the presidential election to factors that already exist — such as the fact that 11 House Democrats are running unopposed.
Still, even if LePage pushes just a few votes one way or the other in highly competitive races, he’ll have had his effect.
