A new state forecast maps out Maine’s most promising industries during the next decade.
Jobs at the high and low ends of Maine’s economy are projected to grow the fastest in the next decade, as jobs considered “middle-skill” become phased out by computers and other automation.
The latest forecast from the Maine Department of Labor projects that jobs paying less than $12.20 per hour and more than $26.50 per hour will grow the most during the next decade, with slow or no growth among middle-income jobs.
For instance, the labor department expects an average of 505 new registered nurses will be hired each year through 2024, with a median hourly wage of $30.21, before taxes and deductions. Those positions require at least a bachelor’s degree.
Meanwhile, personal care aide positions, requiring no educational credential and paying about one-third of the hourly wage of registered nurses, are expected to grow at a rapid pace.
Use the search feature below to explore projections for different occupations, out to 2024.
[tableau server=”public.tableau.com” workbook=”Mainecareerguide-2024″ view=”Jobseeker?:showVizHome=no” tabs=”no” toolbar=”yes” revert=”” refresh=”” linktarget=”” width=”100%” height=”635px”][/tableau]
Maine’s aging population is shaping the workforce.
Maine’s health care sector has long been on the rise and projected to grow, based on sheer demand from the oldest population in the country.
On the other end of that demographic trend, the forecast projects Maine’s low birth rate will continue to fuel a decline in government jobs, primarily in public education.
Overall, the forecast projects that the state’s economy will add about 5,319 jobs in the next decade, an increase of less than 1 percent.
Expect a shift toward service-sector jobs and a decline in manufacturing.
Jobs in professional and business services and leisure and hospitality are projected to grow the most after health care. But Maine’s aging population throws another curveball for declining fields such as manufacturing: They need more young employees.
“There will still be substantial numbers of openings in production, transportation, and installation occupations, despite the continued decline in manufacturing jobs,” a presentation on the forecast states.
While many industries are not expected to add to their total job count, there will be churn.
Only 12 percent of annual job openings are expected from industry growth, as opposed to filling existing jobs. And about two-thirds of openings will be in occupations requiring a high school diploma or less.
Jobs requiring only a high school diploma are dwindling, but churn will fuel demand for workers with a high school diploma or fewer years of education.
For jobs requiring a high school diploma or less, there will be more churn, requiring replacement of about 10,000 current workers, on average, each year. Churn is expected to open up an average of 15,549 jobs in each year, out to 2024.
The bulk of the industries expected to grow in total employment have higher education requirements.
Jobs requiring no formal education are an exception to the trend, with total jobs expected to rise by about 1.9 percent, or 3,533 positions.
Jobs requiring some post-secondary degree or certificate are all projected to increase at rates ranging from 6.3 percent, for professions requiring master’s degrees, to 1.6 percent, for those requiring an associate degree.
But that won’t change the makeup of Maine’s job market much. The faster increases in positions requiring post-secondary education are expected to boost their share of the job market to 34 percent, barely up from 33 percent.