President Lyndon Johnson’s landslide in the 1964 election was the last time that a majority of white men voted for a Democratic president. In more recent elections, the average has been below 40 percent.
But pollsters say that Hillary Clinton doesn’t need to beat this mark to win. That’s because white men represent only 35 percent of the electorate today, a 6 percentage point decline since 1992, and because of her broad appeal among women, people of color and millennials.
Democrats, however, face a stiffer challenge. Although Barack Obama won the White House by majority twice, his coattails were at the cleaners. Democratic turnovers to Republicans during his tenure have been significant: 13 Senate seats, 69 House seats, 11 governorships and 32 state legislative chambers. Consequently, it falls on Clinton’s shoulders to not only hold the White House but to reverse party losses.
Enter white men, more than half of whom support Donald Trump, particularly the 59 percent who do not have a college education. Many of these working class men, including Democrats, were left behind in the recovery, and they are drawn to Trump’s tough talk on immigration and trade. These men seek change and share Trump’s contempt for the establishment. A few even buy his conspiracy theories like birtherism, evoking what writer Stewart Brand called “the great American resource of paranoia.”
The great irony is that working class guys are putting their faith in Trump, a New York billionaire who was born with a silver spoon in his mouth, lives in a penthouse, travels by personal jet and runs his empire by manipulating investors and workers.
So, what’s a poor woman to do? Clinton must focus on jobs and the economy. She must expose Trump’s empty promises and corporate takeover of the Republican Party for what they are: a merger of wealthy interests that foreshadows a double-cross of America’s middle class.
But personality is overwhelming policy in this election and therein lays the double standard for Clinton. She has the knowledge and experience to make a fine commander in chief, yet men are ready to throw caution to the wind with Trump. This is especially true in foreign affairs, where experts from both parties warn about Trump’s narcissism, thin-skin and impulsiveness.
Gender bias is evident in more ways. Trump’s striking lack of civility is excused as well as his steadfast refusal to apologize or recant. And only a man could constantly whine about a rigged system and then boast about controlling politicians and avoiding taxes.
Trump also benefits from a double standard on the issue of strength. Clinton has shown toughness as U.S. secretary of state and in the rough and tumble arena of politics. Nevertheless, white working class men gravitate to Trump’s masculine rhetoric, such as his trademark proposal to build a southern wall and make Mexico pay for it. But bravado is not strength. It’s creating imaginary dragons that Trump can slay.
Clinton faces an uphill climb in her historic bid to become the first woman U.S. president. She has what it takes to lead the country but she has a likeability problem. The fact is she’ll never be one of the guys. And while Trump will never be either, his cultivated image as a playboy, TV entertainer and rabble-rouser makes him one who guys would rather have a beer with.
Yet, in the final analysis, Clinton’s big advantage over Trump is character. She’s resilient, committed to public service and knows humility from her failures on national health care reform and her presidential run in 2008. As for truth-telling, forget the cottage industry attacks on her and ask this question, “Who would you rather buy a used car from?” It’s Clinton hands down. Trump, the self-proclaimed expert at using other people’s money, would steal your wallet if you let him.
Trump is tapping into white working class anger, male chauvinism and white nationalism. But this slice of men isn’t enough to win. It will take common-sense moderates who believe that government needs to be improved, not torn apart it.
It’s remarkable that tough working class men who know a con-artist when they see one are fooled by Trump. But if Clinton can siphon more off, she’ll win with coattails. Trump has nowhere to go because he’s insulted everyone but white guys. She’s played the woman’s card, and now it’s the man’s card.
Jake Plante is author of “Uncle Sam and Mother Earth: Shaping the Nation’s Environmental Path.” He lives in Brunswick.