The Boston Red Sox are in an interesting position. After winning five of seven games against the Tampa Bay Rays and New York Yankees, they remain nine games behind their division-leading foes in the Bronx.
But a deep postseason run is still possible. Battling Oakland, Tampa Bay and Cleveland or Minnesota, the Red Sox are one game out of the second AL wild-card spot. Fangraphs, a statistical analysis website, puts Boston’s playoff odds at 54.5 percent. That means Wednesday’s 4 p.m. trade deadline is a big deal for the Sox. To be sure, they are buyers.
What should they do? Payroll constraints and an undercooked farm system make it complicated, but what happens this week could shape the Sox for years. Here are a few paths they could take:
1. Do nothing
This team already is excellent. After a bizarre 6-13 start, the Sox have been 53-35 since, a .602 pace that would rank fifth in MLB. It’s not the unabashed dominance of 2018, but it’ll play.
Attrition elsewhere might make their bid easier. Tampa lost ace Blake Snell to injury last week, quasi-ace pitcher Trevor Bauer — who hucked a baseball over the centerfield wall after a frustrating performance Sunday — could be booted from Cleveland and Oakland’s shutdown closer Blake Treinen has been hurt. The Sox could get in doing nothing at all.
2. Trade a position player for pitching
Oddities among the Sox staff could foretell deeper issues going forward. Fine seasons from David Price and Eduardo Rodriguez have been offset by an injury to Nathan Eovaldi, a steep decline from Rick Porcello and puzzling inconsistency from ace Chris Sale, who still racks up the strikeouts but has allowed 1.4 home runs per nine innings, more than twice last year’s rate.
A sly recent trade with Baltimore for Andrew Cashner, a burly, bearded hurler who became a changeup artist after an electric fastball brought 10 years of mediocre results, has helped, but it might not address rotation questions for the postseason — not to mention 2020, when they need to add at least one starter (or two depending on Eovaldi’s health).
Trading for one now could remove them from this winter’s market, where free-agent options are sparse. If an ace like the Mets’ Noah Syndergaard or the Reds’ Luis Castillo were available, the Sox could listen, though it would likely mean trading either Andrew Benintendi or Michael Chavis, whose production may be easier to replace in free agency than signing a pitcher.
Benintendi has had a terrific week, hitting .484 with three home runs in 32 plate appearances, but his overall production is down compared with other corner outfielders this year and he might be better suited in a park other than Fenway and its deep right-field contours. Chavis had an astounding first couple weeks but has hit .243/.304/.395 since May 5, tethered by a top-10 strikeout rate.
Among relievers, if the Reds’ Amir Garrett, the Mets’ Edwin Diaz or the Rangers’ Jose Leclerc are on the table then Chavis could be on the move. The Sox might also opt to trade infielders Bobby Dalbec or C.J. Chatham, two minor leaguers blocked at the major-league level by Rafael Devers and Xander Bogaerts.
3. Make a small trade for a reliever
The Red Sox bullpen needs are overblown, but it could use reinforcements, if only to keep from taxing Brandon Workman and Matt Barnes. Workman has ascended from the last man in the pen to turn in a season that tops Craig Kimbrel’s 2018, and Barnes has overcome some blips — and overuse — to turn in a fine, often unhittable year. Meanwhile, flamethrowing rookie southpaw Darwinzon Hernandez and low-key additions Colten Brewer and Josh Taylor have settled in, the trio putting up a 2.92 earned run average while striking out 61 batters over 49.1 innings since June 1.
A proven closer is likely too expensive, but they could swing a small trade — lower-level prospects for Baltimore’s Miguel Castro or, if healthy, the Rangers’ Shawn Kelley or the Reds’ David Hernandez, all cheap right-handed relievers whose sliders would be useful weapons against projected postseason sluggers.
It should be an interesting 48 hours, but whatever the Sox decide to do, they’re firmly in the race. And, no, they’re not trading Mookie Betts.