Maine’s 2nd Congressional District is shaping up for a competitive presidential race on election night, with President Donald Trump and Democratic nominee Joe Biden within a few points in recent polls after Trump won the swing district by 10 points four years ago.
Trump has made an aggressive push for it again this year, visiting in his official capacity in June and for a campaign stop in October. He has also rolled out several policy initiatives seeming to target the district this year, including aid for fishermen hurt by tariffs during his trade war with China. Biden’s campaign has targeted the district too, with Jill Biden, the wife of the former vice president, making two trips to the Bangor area.
While it is unlikely — though not impossible — that the results of the election will come down to the 2nd District, early results from towns that voted for Trump in 2016 after going for former President Barack Obama in 2012 provide insight as to how well the president has maintained his support in the rural and working-class areas that propelled him to victory four years ago.
Maine cities and towns are generally expecting to report full results within a few hours of polls closing on election night. Nearly 200 favored Trump in 2016 after going for Obama in 2012, according to state data. The largest was Auburn, with a population of about 23,000. Trump won the city by 0.2 percentage points after Obama won it by nearly 18 points in 2012.
Other 2nd District municipalities with 5,000 or more people that flipped from Obama to Trump include Lisbon, Presque Isle, Skowhegan, Ellsworth, Caribou, Fairfield, Oakland, Poland, Rumford, Sabattus and Paris. Whether Biden is able to flip those towns back could be a good indicator of his overall performance.
In towns that were won by both Obama and Hillary Clinton, the Democratic nominee in 2016, margins matter as well. For instance, Obama won Madawaska, the mill town with a population of roughly 3,700, by 48 points in 2012 while Clinton won it by only 15 points in 2016. Biden is likely to win the town this year, but how many points he wins it by will be telling.
The same goes for some towns won by both Trump and Mitt Romney, the 2012 Republican presidential nominee. Romney won Houlton, which has a population of about 5,700, by about seven points, while Trump won it by nearly 23 points. The president will be looking to post a margin like that in those places this time around.
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