With three games left in Maine high school football’s regular season, wins are at a premium for teams fighting for top seeds headed into the playoffs. After a long stretch of predicting 75 percent of winners correctly, the power rankings finally cleared up and I was eight for eight last week. Let’s see if we can make it two weeks in a row.
Based on results from the past five weeks, as well as 2022 matchups and a slew of other factors, here are my predictions for eight North games on Friday and Saturday.
Old Town at Hermon
Prediction: Hermon 32, Old Town 14
Hermon and Old Town are two ground-and-pound teams with talented backs. But Hermon gets the nod here because it has home field advantage and a better record. Moreover, junior quarterback Bruce Coulter is more experienced than Old Town’s freshman quarterback Ethan Closson, and Old Town had trouble in the secondary against Hampden last week, which Coulter could take advantage of.
Bangor at Cony
Prediction: Bangor 35, Cony 7
A year ago, this prediction would have been very different — Cony went 7-3 in 2022, while Bangor finished 1-8. But both sides are headed in opposite directions this season, with the Bangor Rams sitting at 3-2 with a +42 point differential, and the Cony Rams at 2-3 and -38. This Ram on Ram action should end in Bangor’s favor, despite playing on the road. Look for Bangor senior quarterback Jack Schuck to have a big game.
Hampden at Nokomis
Prediction: Hampden 40, Nokomis 20
Even with injuries to several key players, Hampden’s record is above .500 for the first time since 2013, and the team is primed for its third straight victory. Third string quarterback Gavin Monyok looks comfortable, and Hampden has height, speed and IQ in its receiving corps. First-year head coach Robenson Saintard has revolutionized the Broncos’ offense this season, and should be able to outduel a 2-3 Nokomis side undergoing a two-game losing streak.
Brewer at Winslow
Prediction: Winslow 28, Brewer 21
Brewer has had a frustrating start to its 2023 campaign, losing to two undefeated teams and losing to two reigning Class C regional finalists. Winslow finally represents a more pedestrian opponent, and Brewer should give the Raiders a good fight. Unfortunately, I think Winslow will outlast the Witches’ young offensive corps and hand Brewer its sixth straight loss. Winslow has home field and knows how to put a win together.
Dexter/Piscataquis at Stearns/Schenck
Prediction: Stearns 44, Dexter 38
This clash in Millinocket will probably be Week 6’s closest matchup. Both sides are 3-2, have shown flashes of brilliance on offense, and are eager to lock down the third seed in eight-player small North. To make the stakes even higher, the conference only has seven weeks in its regular season, so Friday’s game will likely decide that third slot. Stearns gets the nod here due to its impressive three-game winning streak in which it has averaged 59.6 points per game.
Bucksport at Ellsworth/Sumner
Prediction: Bucksport 52, Ellsworth 22
Another interesting battle in 8-player small North, the Golden Bucks will arrive in Ellsworth to face an Eagles squad desperate for a win. The Eagles are on a three-game skid, and could easily drop 40 points on No. 2-seed Bucksport if they really locked in. Unfortunately, the Golden Bucks are a proven force, and will likely come out with their fifth victory on the season.
Medomak Valley at Cape Elizabeth
Prediction: Medomak 36, Cape Elizabeth 21
Medomak is coming off a crushing 35-0 loss to Foxcroft, its first of the season, but will probably bounce back against a struggling Capers team. Medomak’s ground game is pretty powerful, fueled by senior running back Aaron Reed and senior quarterback Chase Peaslee, and is capable of overwhelming most teams. Reed has 13 touchdowns and is nearing 1,000 yards from scrimmage.
Edward Little at Messalonskee
Messalonskee 44, Edward Little 13
Against everyone’s expectations, Messalonskee will improve to 6-0 on Friday. Prior to this year, Messalonskee had gone a combined 5-27 across four seasons, but are back on track and hungry for wins. Led by first-year head coach Blair Doucette, running back Sam Dube, quarterback Tatum Doucette and wide receiver Brady Brunelle, among many others, the Eagles have averaged 41.2 points per game this season and allowed only 41 total.
