Crowded and controversial primaries are clattering to an end ahead of Maine’s primaries in which the parties will pick nominees for all of the state’s major offices.
The most consequential races are the primaries for the seat being vacated by Gov. Janet Mills, with five Democrats and seven Republicans running. Democrat Graham Platner is all but assured to win the right to face U.S. Sen. Susan Collins despite more than a week of heavy scrutiny. Democrats are picking from four candidates in Maine’s swing congressional district.
Ranked-choice voting could shape the outcomes of all those races, and there are other high-interest primaries down the ballot from swing legislative seats to primaries for district attorney.
A schismatic Democratic race for governor is set for a photo finish.
This Democratic primary was exceedingly polite for months. Then former public health chief Nirav Shah kept leading the polls. It led three other candidates — former House Speaker Hannah Pingree, former Senate President Troy Jackson and Secretary of State Shenna Bellows — to cement a ranked-choice voting alliance last month.
The three support ending Maine’s practice of awarding presidential electors by congressional district if Republican-led Nebraska does the same. Shah and the other candidates have leaned into plans to shield Maine from what they see as the ill effects of President Donald Trump’s policies.
Shah, Pingree and Jackson were tightly bunched in the last poll of the race. Other surveys have shown former clean energy executive Angus King III pulling a significant share of votes. This is likely to be the closest race on Election Day, with more drama to come in the ranked-choice count that will be finalized next week.
Republicans have a clear frontrunner but an unsettled base.
The Republican side of the Blaine House race has been dominated by lawyer and former federal official Bobby Charles, whose lofty promises, AI videos and bitter attacks have led to a race in which five Republicans refused to say whether they would vote for him as the nominee. He has spent the campaign’s final days touting a plan to stop the “Islamification” of Maine.
This underscores why Charles is widely seen as a weak nominee for a Democratic-leaning state. But his shoestring campaign has been impressive given the millions in ads behind rivals Jonathan Bush and Garrett Mason. Former fitness executive Ben Midgley looks like a factor, but their voters may have to align on second choices to stop Charles. However, 18% were still undecided in a poll released last week.
Platner’s margin will be scrutinized by Democrats across the country.
Maine has never seen a candidate like Platner, a political newcomer whose progressive campaign drove Gov. Janet Mills from the race in April. He has become a movement through massive crowds and small-dollar fundraising.
But his candidacy has been highly volatile, from the Reddit and tattoo disclosures of October to the recent revelations of sexually explicit messages to women early in his marriage to allegations of “toxic” behavior in past relationships. Supporters have stuck by him even though many Democrats think it’s harder to see him beating Collins now.
He is virtually assured to win the primary, but Mills remains on the ballot alongside 2024 U.S. Senate nominee David Costello. If Mills gets above 30% of votes, it will show real anxiety in the rank and file.
A chippy Democratic primary comes down to three of the four candidates.
Four Democrats are trying to draw the difficult task of facing former Gov. Paul LePage in the 2nd Congressional District seat being vacated by four-term Rep. Jared Golden. All are more liberal than him.
National Democrats back state Sen. Joe Baldacci, the only candidate in the race to not fully embrace Medicare for All. A shadowy Republican-linked group has hit Baldacci from the left. Baldacci has attacked State Auditor Matt Dunlap on an old abortion vote, and Dunlap fired back with an ad calling Baldacci “a lying puppet owned by D.C. corporate interests.”
Dunlap and former political operative Jordan Wood have split the support of more progressive voters, while newcomer Paige Loud is at the left of the field. Polls have shown Baldacci ahead but Dunlap and Wood in the mix.
What else is on the ballot?
There are competitive primaries for the Maine Legislature, with seven contested Senate races and 21 in the House. Perhaps the biggest one is in the Windham area, where 2024 nominee Kenny Cianchette takes on Peter Violette for the chance to face Sen. Tim Nangle, D-Windham.
House Minority Leader Billy Bob Faulkingham, R-Winter Harbor, faces former Rep. Bucket Davis of East Machias for a Maine Senate nod, while Reps. Sophie Warren of Scarborough and Ellie Sato of Gorham are facing off in the only incumbent-on-incumbent primary.
That’s not all. Two progressive district attorneys — Cumberland County’s Jackie Sartoris and the midcoast’s Natasha Irving — are in primary fights. Sartoris is being challenged by one of her former prosecutors, Valerie Adams, who was fired after saying she intended to run and has challenged her leadership of the office.