Election 2026
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The fight for control of the Legislature is being waged along the seam between the “two Maines,” in the cities, college towns and suburbs that sit between the Republican north and its Democratic south.
None of the races drawing the most outside money this fall features a candidate from Aroostook County or Portland. They run from Auburn and Augusta to Orono, Farmington and Bridgton, encompassing broad swaths of Maine in which neither party has a lock.
Democrats won a narrow House majority by just 60 total votes in 2024, leaving Republicans a net gain of three seats short in both chambers. The prediction site State Navigate projects a Democratic rout Tuesday. People watching the races closely think Republicans will lose House seats but hold as many as 65 while the 20-15 Senate looks out of reach for the minority party.
Two years ago, Democrats were wiped out in Aroostook County, while Republicans lost the suburban seats they needed for their first House majority since 2010. This year’s top races sit in the middle of that divide. Most have more registered Republicans than Democrats, and about a third of voters in each are unenrolled.
Many were coin flips last time. Rep. Sally Cluchey, D-Bowdoinham, won by just 14 votes. The Farmington seat Rep. Stephan Bunker, D-Farmington, won by a mere seven votes is now open, and Republican Randall Gauvin, whom Bunker beat, is trying again against former Rep. Scott Landry, D-Farmington.
In districts where one party’s brand has eroded, both parties are trying something else: backing independents. Two dozen legislative races pit an independent against only one major-party candidate, more than twice as many as in any election since at least 2010.
One of them is in Bangor. The Senate Republican campaign arm has spent heavily for independent Stephen Carey in the seat vacated by Sen. Joe Baldacci, D-Bangor, who won easily in 2024. No Republican is on the ballot, and Carey faces Rep. Amy Roeder, D-Bangor.
Democratic allies are making the same play in the House. Rep. Sharon Frost, an independent from Belgrade, ousted a Republican by 43 votes in 2024. Democratic-aligned groups are helping her keep the seat against Republican Dexter Bridges Jr. of New Sharon, though Republican groups have outspent them. In Gray, where no Democrat is running, independent Sam Pfeifle is getting similar help against Republican Melissa Winslow of New Gloucester.
Overall, outside groups have spent nearly $4.7 million on legislative races since Sept. 1, according to Maine Ethics Commission filings. Most of it helps Democrats, but the parties are on offense in different chambers.
Democratic-aligned money leads in seven of the eight costliest Senate races, including the most expensive in the state, a bid to unseat Sen. Bruce Bickford, R-Auburn. In the House, Republican-aligned groups lead in nine of the 10 priciest races, many of them targeting Democrats who barely won two years ago.