Maine Democratic Senate candidate Troy Jackson greets supporters after speaking at an election night event, Nov. 4, in Portland. Credit: Robert F. Bukaty / AP

A Maine union leader close to U.S. Sen.-elect Troy Jackson said Friday there is a “98% chance” the Democrat will back Sen. Chris Van Hollen of Maryland in his leadership challenge to Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer of New York.

Jackson has not said publicly whether he’ll support Van Hollen. His team said Friday evening that he looks forward to speaking with Van Hollen in the coming weeks. He and several other progressives have already said they won’t back Schumer in a leadership vote set for December, after Democrats won control of the Senate on Election Day.

The leadership fight puts Jackson, who upset five-term Republican Sen. Susan Collins, in the spotlight with the party’s left flank as he meets new colleagues and builds out a staff. It would also set him against independent Sen. Angus King, who endorsed Schumer on Thursday night.

Last week, during freshman orientation on Capitol Hill, Jackson met with Sen.-elect Abdul El-Sayed of Michigan and Dave Sullivan, eastern territory vice president of the International Association of Machinists and Aerospace Workers. Sullivan said all three agreed the Senate needed new leadership.

The machinists union sent a letter to Schumer and the Democratic caucus Tuesday pressing for a “new direction.” On Thursday, it endorsed Van Hollen after he announced his challenge.

“As the people speak across the country, the tsunami of a blue wave clearly shows everybody, top to bottom, left to right, wants change,” Sullivan said in an interview Friday.

Van Hollen, 67, was weighing a 2028 presidential run before he turned to the leadership bid. Sullivan said the union sees him as a steady choice, calling him “levelheaded with a good track record.”

The union represents 600,000 workers, including Bath Iron Works shipbuilders, and paid Jackson $90,000 as a consultant from March 2025 through August. Its president, Brian Bryant, a former BIW pipefitter, said in the endorsement that the race is a fight over working people.

“[Sen.] Van Hollen understands this is a fight of workers vs. billionaires and has the courage to deliver the change voters demanded,” Bryant said.

“Senator-Elect Jackson has already made clear that he believes it’s time for new leadership in the Senate,” Jackson transition aide and campaign manager Hilary Barrett said in a statement. “The next Senate majority leader needs to be ready to do what’s right for working families and the people of Maine. That’s where Senator-Elect Jackon’s focus remains.”

El-Sayed has also backed Van Hollen, along with Sen.-elect Peggy Flanagan and Sen. Tina Smith, both of Minnesota, and Sen. Bernie Sanders of Vermont, a longtime Jackson ally. Sen.-elect Adam Hamilton of Kansas is among the Democrats who oppose Schumer but haven’t endorsed anyone to replace him.

Axios reported that Schumer has 14 public endorsements. He posted on X Thursday night that he welcomed discussion about the caucus’s future.

“I have the votes to continue serving as Democratic Leader,” Schumer said.

King pushed back on the case against Schumer in a statement, saying the leader’s plans for the new majority were “directly responsive to the message we heard from the voters.”

“He has the experience and unique mastery of the Senate process to make it happen,” King said. “Why would you fire the manager when you just won the World Series?”

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