Lawyer and former federal official Bobby Charles held a commanding lead over six other Republicans seeking to flip the Blaine House in a new poll Thursday, the latest survey showing the firebrand beating opponents by a wide margin.
Roughly 34% of Republicans picked Charles first in a poll of 466 likely primary voters conducted by SurveyUSA, the Bangor Daily News and the electoral reform group FairVote. That was twice as much support as the nearest contender, entrepreneur Jonathan Bush, who picked up 17% of the first-choice votes.
The survey comes just a few days before the Tuesday primary. It suggests Charles’ unconventional, grassroots and social media-driven campaign has staying power despite increased criticism from his rivals and concerns about his electability within the party.
No other candidate seems to really be registering. Former state Senate Majority Leader Garrett Mason and former fitness executive Ben Midgley tied for third at 10%. Entrepreneur Owen McCarthy received 7% of the first-choice votes, while real estate executive and former Paris Town Selectman Robert Wessels each received 2%.
Charles’ critics — especially Bush, Mason and Midgley — have slammed his budget cut proposals as outlandish and characterized his campaign as increasingly negative. Charles has shrugged off the criticism and blasted his top opponents as the “Three Amigos.”
A ranked-choice simulation showed Wessels and Jones dropping first, followed by McCarthy and Mason. When votes were reallocated according to voters’ next-ranked choices, Charles cleared the majority threshold at 51%, followed by Bush at 31% and Midgley at 19%.
Mason and Bush have been boosted by substantial financial backing from outside groups, while Charles has spent a fraction on ads compared to his opponents. A political action committee backing Mason has reserved almost $4.5 million in ads this year, while the Bush campaign and a pro-Bush PAC have combined to book about $3.7 million in ads. Charles has booked less than $200,000 in ads since January, less than Midgley and McCarthy, according to AdImpact.
The poll suggested there’s some room for candidates to move — 18% remain undecided. Multiple campaigns, which have disputed previous polls, say many Republican voters are only just beginning paying attention to the race. Primaries have broken late in the past.
Charles, who has been running now for more than a year, led all demographic subgroups in the poll but one: moderates. They preferred Bush 28% to 20%. Bush led among voters 65 and older at 28%. Charles led among “very conservative” voters, with 47% naming him their first choice.
Full results and crosstabs from the poll can be viewed here. It has an error margin of 5.7 percentage points in the Republican gubernatorial primary. The survey was paid for by FairVote, a group that supports ranked-choice voting. The BDN had input on questions.