State Sen. Joe Baldacci led in the newest poll over three other Democrats fighting for the chance to face former Gov. Paul LePage for the open seat in Maine’s 2nd Congressional District.
Baldacci picked up 27% of the first-choice votes in the poll of 190 likely primary voters by SurveyUSA released Thursday by the electoral reform group FairVote and the Bangor Daily News. State Auditor Matt Dunlap was behind him at 22%, followed by former congressional aide Jordan Wood at 21% and social worker Paige Loud at 11%.
The poll came after a survey last month showed Baldacci with a commanding lead. He has tussled with Dunlap over outside money flooding into one of the most competitive House districts in the country as Democrats try to take control of the chamber and replace the retiring U.S. Rep. Jared Golden in a district won three times by President Donald Trump.
In a ranked-choice voting simulation, Loud was the first eliminated, with most of her votes going to Wood and Baldacci, leaving Dunlap just behind Wood. With Dunlap removed, Baldacci reaches the majority threshold with 56% to Wood’s 44%, according to the simulation. But the survey showed 19% remain undecided with just a few days left before the June 9 primary.
Baldacci led among middle-aged voters and those in upper-income households. Dunlap held a strong lead among early voters at 49%, had a narrow edge among men and was twice as strong as Baldacci in the suburbs, 33% to 15%. Wood was twice as strong as his opponents among very liberal voters and in urban areas, while Loud narrowly led among young voters.
As of late May, a secretive group tied to Republicans had spent more than $300,000 in the Democratic House primary. A federal filing by Real Change PAC showed spending to back Dunlap of Old Town and opposed Baldacci. He hit back with an attack ad against Dunlap, prompting a response from the state auditor on the air this week.
It will be a busy last few days ahead of Tuesday’s election. Dunlap is appearing at a Bar Harbor rally Friday night alongside U.S. Senate candidate Graham Platner, former state Senate President Troy Jackson and U.S. Rep. Ro Khanna, D-California.
Full results and crosstabs from the poll can be viewed here. It has an error margin of 8.1 percentage points in the Democratic 2nd District primary. The survey was paid for by FairVote, a group that supports ranked-choice voting. The BDN had input on questions.