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More than $1 million in trades took place in a single day on the online prediction marketplace Kalshi last week.
The bulk of those trades happened just hours before The York Times ran a story about Platner’s ex-girlfriends who accused him of “toxic,” and in some cases physically intimidating, behavior when they were together, according to the publication Gaming America.
Online bettors have been laser-focused on a hotly contested mayoral race in Los Angeles, and Gaming America reported that interest may now be turning to Maine.
Since a favorable 2024 court ruling, online prediction markets have operated outside state gambling regulations and are subject to the authority of the federal Commodity Futures Trading Commission. The 2024 ruling allowed wagers, called “event contracts,” on that year’s elections. Basically, bettors wage on the odds of a given outcome, such as which candidate will win in a U.S. Senate race.
Even before The Times’ story, Democratic strategists worried that Platner could become a weight around the party’s neck come November after the revelation that he exchanged sexually explicit texts with women early in his marriage. Yet, during a weekend town hall in Portland, the crowd remained largely supportive of Platner and none of his congressional backers have rescinded their endorsements.
Since Platner stormed onto the political scene last year, he has faced a barrage of criticism over unearthed inflammatory internet posts and revelations that he had a chest tattoo of a skull resembling a symbol adopted by the Nazi SS during World War II.
Platner denied knowing the meaning of the tattoo, which he got in 2007 while deployed abroad with the U.S. Marines. He has since had it covered.
Gov. Janet Mills, who suspended her U.S. Senate campaign in April and hit Platner hard over his old internet posts in a series of campaign ads, has said that Republicans would make “mincemeat” of Platner if he emerges as the party’s standard-bearer for the November election.
Mills and David Costello also are on Tuesday’s ballot.
On Kalshi, Democrats went from 2-1 odds in their favor of flipping the seat to a tossup with Republicans in less than a week. Nonetheless, prediction market bettors, who skew to right-wing politics, remain highly confident that Platner will emerge as the Democratic nominee Tuesday, according to Gaming America.
It will be an uphill battle for Democrats to unseat Collins, who officially announced her historic bid for a sixth term in February. While recent polls have given Platner a lead over Maine’s senior senator, the Republican has handily beaten back challengers, including in 2020 when she defied polls and expectations to secure a fifth term in the Senate. But Collins, who has been ranked the country’s most bipartisan senator, has seen her popularity slump since Republican President Donald Trump’s first term in the White House.
If Collins is successful in winning a sixth term, she would be Maine’s longest-serving U.S. senator.