ROCKLAND, Maine — Wallet-stripping gas prices? No problem. Down economy? Also not a problem for this summer’s Maine-bound tourists. In fact, these two factors likely will boost the number of visitors to the state, according to industry officials. The only thing that can hold back the traffic is the weather.
High gas prices haven’t negatively affected Maine’s $7.7 billion tourism industry before and likely won’t this year, according to the Maine Office of Tourism.
“We’re primarily a drive market,” explained Carolann Ouellette, director of the Maine Office of Tourism. We are a short distance away for a lot of potential vacationers who are looking forward to getting away this year, she said. “Airline traffic will probably be down and people will probably turn to more driving, which for Maine is great.”
Most of Maine’s tourists drive to their destinations. They primarily come from Massachusetts and New York, which account for about 40 percent of overnight visitors. But this year the state’s friendly neighbors to the north are expected to visit in droves. As the dollar weakens with the American economy taking a beating, Canadians, who made up 19 percent of Maine’s 23.2 million overnight tourists last year, are looking to take more shopping trips and cheap vacations across the border. The exchange rate has hovered around $1.03 Canadian to every U.S. dollar in the past few days.
“With the Canadian dollar being what it is, we’re seeing a tremendous amount of Canadian visitors,” said Greg Dugal, executive director of Maine Innkeepers Association. “Look at the parking lot at the Bangor Mall — you don’t have to look farther than that to see the license plates from New Brunswick. It’s a great deal for them.”
According to the Office of Tourism, shopping is the top reason for day trippers to visit Maine.
“Canadian traffic is very strong for our industry because their gas prices are over $5. Coming to Maine is a treat for them,” said Richard Abare.
And if there is one guy who watches gas prices, it’s Abare, who is executive director of the Maine Campground Owners Association.
So far, the association’s more than 200 campground members are saying early reservations are up more than 10 percent over last year. This is especially significant because 2010 was 10 percent over 2009.
“This year the RV industry is doing very well even with the gas prices,” Abare said. “Many of my members are telling me they are completely booked for Memorial Day weekend now, which is very good news.”
Jensen Bissell, the Baxter State Park director, said on Thursday that several of Baxter’s campgrounds were nearly booked full for the holiday weekend too.
About 35 million Americans will travel more than 50 miles from their homes for Memorial Day this year, AAA told The Associated Press earlier this week. This represents an increase of 100,000 travelers from last year, but AAA also predicts those families will spend less, about $700 on their holidays this year, down about $100 from last year.
“Some folks who didn’t come four years ago [when gas prices were high], some of those people are saying, ‘Heck it isn’t so bad, let’s go anyway.’ They’ve had time to do the math and realize they’re paying a third more, $4 and not $3, but when you calculate how many miles you get to the gallon, it doesn’t add so much of an expense to your trip to make you stay home.”
And frankly, people are sick of not taking holidays, according to the Maine Office of Tourism.
“There is a pent up demand for vacations,” said Ouellette. “Part of that is the economy and all that’s happening. Now people are saying ‘I’m taking vacation; it’s very important.’”
So, $1 more per gallon at the gas pump likely won’t ward off the masses. And if experts are right, prices Mainers have seen at their gas stations might plummet for summer.
After a 35 percent jump in gas prices from February to April, oil is now down about 15 percent in May. Gasoline futures are about 14 percent lower. Those declines haven’t yet reached the nation’s gas stations, but analysts say prices could fall as much as a quarter or more by Memorial Day, the AP reported earlier this month. Experts quoted in the AP’s reports guessed gas prices would fall to somewhere between $3.25 and $3.75 per gallon by mid-June.
But no matter how much gas goes up — or doesn’t — there is one stronger force on tourism in Maine: the sun.
According to the 2011 Farmer’s Almanac, Maine will see a particularly tempestuous summer.
“Much heavier-than-normal precipitation could fall over New England,” it states.
June will bring rain and severe thunderstorms, July will bring weekly thunderstorms and August will be chilly, windy and rainy, according to the almanac.
But according to meteorologist Mike Kistner with the National Weather Service in Grey, the Almanac forecast is probably a load of hooey.
“I wouldn’t trust it one bit,” he said. “If you look at our forecast even, after three days you’re looking at less than 30 percent accuracy.”
Funtown Splashtown USA marketing manager Ed Hodgdon is definitely hoping for good weather.
“If the sun isn’t shining, we won’t be busy,” he said . “Once the weather is here the season is great, but it can go up and down. It can change on the day based on what the weather forecast is.”
Hodgdon said the water and amusement parks opened Saturday, May 14. By Sunday, May 15, they had to close due to rain. The parks typically bring in half a million people to Saco each summer.
Up the coast 150 miles, Bar Harbor expects a busy season. Maybe even busier than last year, which saw more than 2.5 million visitors, according to Chris Fogg, executive director of the Bar Harbor Chamber of Commerce. About 175,000 of these people will come from the 118 planned cruise ship visits to the town — the most scheduled cruise trips the town has ever seen.
“We’re very optimistic about the upcoming season. Early bookings are very strong, even stronger than last year,” Fogg said. “That’s what we’ve heard from the hotels. Visitation to our website is up over 30 percent over this time last year. Orders of our guidebook are up as well. All signs are pointing to people coming to the island here.”
In Bar Harbor, Mount Desert Island Ice Cream has two stands where it serves its Maine-made sorbets — including blueberry basil flavor.
The ice cream stands’ owner, Linda Parker, has a secret way of knowing if business will be booming or bust. She has a friend in the vacation house renting business. For Parker, lots of vacation home rentals is a surefire sign of a clogged Route 1A and a full cash register.
Based on that, “I think this summer is looking very good,” Parker said. “A friend of mine who deals with home renters told me in January that she was more booked than she’d ever been. The buzz around town is that hotel reservations are really solid. Those are the things I look at. They’re good indicators we’ll have a strong season.”
Parker makes her ice cream fresh, so summer churning in preparation for the tourist invasion has yet to start.
“Bar Harbor kicked some serious butt last year and is looking to kick some more this year,” said Dugal, of the Maine Innkeepers Association.
Mount Desert Island and Acadia National Park also got a big boost and a lot of free publicity when the first family vacationed here for three days last July. At the time, experts predicted President Barack Obama’s visit would help spike Bar Harbor’s tourism numbers in the future.
Judging by early numbers and feedback from the inns, Dugal predicts this summer will see a 5 percent increase in tourism statewide over last year’s 23.2 million tourists.
“There is activity all over the place [this year], but the strongest is July and August,” Dugal said about inn reservations.
According to Dugal, his industry took in $650 million for Maine last year. Of that, a whopping $278 million was earned in two months — July and August.
“Almost half our business is conducted in two months. It’s a lot,” he said.
The major difference he is seeing in inn bookings this year is the length of the stay. Whereas RV associations are saying people will likely stay longer in campgrounds because gas is up and so drives cost more, causing people to fall into the logic that they should make the most of their time and stay in one campground as long as they can — hotel visitors have booked shorter visits in Maine.
“The trend has been established for shorter-term bookings and shorter-term stays,” Dugal said. “No one feels rich. Unemployment is high. Gas prices are high. The ‘faux rich’ mentality is no longer there.”
In Camden, where large, historic inns line Route 1, there is a sense of confidence on the streets, according to Dan Bookham, executive director of the Camden Rockport Lincolnville Chamber of Commerce.
“If gas prices do not go too stratospheric it sounds as if the growth from last year is continuing. Advanced bookings appear to be up for many people,” Bookham said. “There is an air of quiet optimism in the streets and a degree of confidence that is good to see.”