AUGUSTA, Maine — Maine elected an independent governor, James Longley, in 1974. The state’s voters did so again in 1994, electing Angus King. Will the 2014 gubernatorial election extend that 20-year pattern?
More than the 20-year cycle is repeating itself. The party makeup in the State House is aligning the same way, too.
King won the Blaine House in 1994 after rancor between a Republican governor and Democratically-controlled Legislature shut down state government and soured voters on both parties. Simmering hostility between Democrats in the Legislature, led by then-House speaker John Martin, and Republican Gov. John McKernan came to a head in July 1991, when an impasse over workers compensation reform stymied budget negotiations to the point that state government halted all but essential operations.
Tuesday’s election results, which returned Democrats to majority status in the Maine House and Senate after two years of Republican control, set up the first recurrence of a Republican governor working with a Legislature led by Democrats since the McKernan-Martin showdown.
The standoff, which prompted angry protests outside the State House, dragged on for 16 days. McKernan has not held elective office since Sen. Susan Collins, who then worked as McKernan’s commissioner of Professional and Financial Regulation during the workers compensation confrontation, earned the Republican gubernatorial nomination in 1994, but finished third behind King and Democrat Joseph Brennan.
After McKernan, Mainers did not elect another Republican governor until 2010, when Gov. Paul LePage won a five-person contest.
As a candidate and during his first two years in office, LePage frequently condemned past Democratic administrations and legislatures. He’s often sparred verbally with Democratic legislators, some of whom are in line for leadership positions or committee chairmanships.
In large part, Democrats based their campaign to regain control of the Legislature on opposition to LePage’s agenda. But without big enough majorities to override a gubernatorial veto, Democrats in the Legislature will have to find a heretofore elusive working relationship with LePage — or Republican legislators — in order to pass a biennial budget, complete legislative redistricting and fulfill campaign promises.
“Each party and its leadership will have to be careful that they do not engage in confrontation that alienates the voters,” said Douglas Hodgkin, professor emeritus of political science at Bates College in Lewiston. “That said, they do have an interest in their own views and philosophy of government. They are going to disagree.”
If they disagree too vehemently in public, both parties run the risk of creating an opportunity for an independent candidate such as Eliot Cutler — who will not suffer from low name recognition as he did in 2010, when he finished a close second to LePage — to build a strong independent 2014 gubernatorial campaign against partisan gridlock in the State House.
King capitalized on voters’ frustration with Republicans and Democrats in 1994, and applied the anti-partisanship strategy even more effectively this year in his successful run for the U.S. Senate. Similarly, Longley’s election in 1974 occurred amid strong public antipathy toward party politics engendered by the Watergate scandal.
LePage and legislative Democrats — especially those eyeing a gubernatorial run in 2014 — also must be careful not to step too far away from the political principles that helped elect them, Hodgin said. Doing so in the name of avoiding stalemate in the State House would alienate hard-core ideologues who might mount primary challenges or, worse, defect from the party.
“They have that incentive to move to where the bulk of the votes are,” Hodgkin said of past elected officials who found themselves in the same position that LePage and Democrats in the 126th Legislature will. “But in their broad coalition, they have to balance tension within the coalition. … They try to go to the center, but they are constrained by their base because if they go too far, their base could split off and become one of the third parties.”
Elected officials who compromise to satisfy voters not regularly engaged in politics other than on Election Day are sometimes punished in the short term to preserve the long-term ideological purity of the party, Hodgkin said.
For LePage, that test could come from Maine Republicans whose libertarian approach to government aligned with Texas U.S. Rep. Ron Paul’s presidential bid. While many Paul supporters criticized the Maine Republican Party about its handling of this year’s presidential preference caucuses and party conventions, they remained firm in their loyalty to LePage.
With statewide public support that has consistently hovered around 40 percent, LePage needs strong backing from the Paul wing of the Maine Republican Party. That would be especially true if, as has become the norm in Maine since the 1970s, the 2014 governor’s race involves three or more candidates.
After Tuesday’s defeats in legislative and congressional races, the Maine Republican Party — which is scheduled to hold leadership elections on Dec. 1 — will likely undergo a major reorganization, according to political consultant and Republican Liberty Caucus of Maine vice chairman Vic Berardelli.
“The party is going to have to reorganize,” Berardelli said. “The No. 1 thing moving forward will be the LePage re-election campaign. Nothing done organizationally should have a negative impact on that man.”
If that anticipated Maine Republican Party reorganization takes shape in a way that motivates the Paul contingent to abandon the GOP for the Libertarians or a new party, LePage would likely suffer collateral political damage.
For Democrats, the challenge will be to identify stronger candidates for statewide office. In 2010’s gubernatorial election and in this year’s U.S. Senate race, the Democrats’ candidates — Libby Mitchell and Cynthia Dill, respectively — fared poorly, winning less than 20 percent of the vote in 2010 and barely 13 percent this year.
Polls show that King drew a high percentage of Democrats to vote for him this year, just as Cutler received a late surge of support from registered Democrats in 2010. With the governorship and a U.S. Senate seat held by Republican Susan Collins on the 2014 ballot, Democrats will have to guard against allowing voters — especially unenrolled voters who lean slightly left — to assume that Cutler or another independent represents a new nonpartisan version of what used to be described as moderate Democrats.
For decades, unenrolled voters have outnumbered Democrats and Republicans in Maine. Hodgkin argues against the notion that they constitute an identifiable voting bloc. He noted that King siphoned more Republican voters than Democrats when he ran in 1994, and that Longley also won by cutting into Republican James Erwin’s base.
Independent candidates often suffer from lack of party organization, Hodgkin said, but they benefit from Maine’s tradition of holding town meetings and nonpartisan elections for municipal office.
“To some extent, our experience with having elected Longley and King and having strong candidates such as Cutler does feed upon itself so that voters are much more willing to abandon the party,” he said. “So many of our communities have town meeting forms of government and are used to nonpartisan selection of the candidates. That town meeting form of government accustoms Maine voters to picking candidates without regard to party.”
John Rensenbrink, a retired Bowdoin College professor and founder of the Maine Green Party, agrees that unenrolled voters can’t be considered as a single bloc. But he believes that Democrats’ and Republicans’ growing penchant for using “fractional and abusive language” and fear to sway voters could lead to a backlash that benefits independent candidates and third parties.
“People do vote in reaction to what they don’t like, especially if it’s motivated by fear,” he said. Independents and, he hopes, Greens must “affirm that there is a real choice not only in the candidacy but in the way issues are presented.”
Ideology matters to party insiders, but outcomes matter to everyday voters. In a state with a history of unenrolled voters electing independent candidates — including five to the incoming Legislature — Democrats and Republicans in the State House both have a vested interest in working together to achieve outcomes that convince Mainers to stop seeking alternatives to their parties.
Robert Long is a political analyst for the BDN.
Elliot Cutler will devide the state even more if elected, the common man cannot relate to him, as he has never been in the common man’s shoes. We need some one that can relate to ALL Maine people.
It is not, in the least, a independent or any other party, but, one to leave our programs in place, and find a way to pay for them.
With the election of Angus King, I think that it has pretty much been confirmed that Democrats,
Republicans, and independents are all part of the same corporate party.
odd being a sucessful businessman is laudable ….when you are an R and running for office.
Interesting and thoughtful piece ,although I do not agree with all of the conclusions or predictions . Good trip down political memory lane. I agree with the summation of the reaction to the Mc Kernan era. It was another time that leaders were out of touch and disregarded and ticked off voters and abused their power.
When one believes in representative government; one must be sure they are actually “representing” the people’s best interest and not their own, nor special interest’s.. ..other wise they will hear loudly and clearly from voters, As both McKernana and NOW Lepage did
When leaders are messing with things that have a direct impact on voters lives, they pay attention–whether it is education, abortion , birth control, workers comp, pensions, medicaid.
Despite all the noise and rumors to the contrary, increased taxes is far back on people’s list of things most voters worry about ( so long as they do not go hog wild–everything goes up over time, INCLUDING taxes).
Most people EXPECT to pay taxes for services rendered and expect to get their money’s worth for roads, education etc. MOST voter understand that collectively paying for services ( instead of individaully) is the most efficient way to deliver those services — few want to pay to build theior OWN roads, educate their OWN children, to hire their own security guard etc —- out of their OWN pocket .
What IS the purpose of Government ??? Some believe it has no function and want to completely eliminate it . They think we should return to the days of the wild wild west and have an idealized and unrealistic “view’ of unfettered “freedom” and liberty –most disagree.
MOST understand that in a well functioning society, some regulation is always going to be necesaary and required to place restraints upon man’s less moral instincts. The 10 commandment are nothing but “regulation”.
Good one! Not foolish at all.
I adopted the name “pretty foolish” the day after election 2010 when Lepage and R were elected into power .It was a comnmentary on the out come .perhaps the new name should be “foolish-no-more”?or “fool me once ”
What this state needs is a good 20 years of GOOD people in office from ALL parties. I would prefer it to be completely Republican controlled, but anyone that is fiscally conservative will do.
I am looking at the chart…Forgive me I like charts and graphs but for some reason it looks like the total number of enrolled voters declined between 2010 and 2012. Or even 2008. No grand totals so I can’t tell by how many. Never the less it looks like even in Maine we are running out of white people. Explains why Democrats did so well.
Are you the same Cheesecake who took umbrage the other day when I mentioned that Republican leaders have become aware that their “base” of aging white men is dwindling, and that’s why they’re not doing so well?
I think the word “racism” might even have been used by that Cheesecake… ;-)
There is a difference when mentioning race in reference to statistics and demographics and using it in reference to “angry white men.”
I wrote “aging.” You wrote “angry.”
I hope they have noticed this at last. The GOP leadership is acting like the sun went down and are wondering why it’s dark.
This is a solid and wise analysis, grounded in history. All evidence points to Paul LePage being unable to rise above pettiness and name-calling. It is up to the Democrats to deal with this bully in a way that preserves their dignity and appeals to the populace.
Democrats won’t have to go it alone. I think now that the elections have shown that the general population rejects LePage/Tea Party thinking (Call “that” anything you like) we’ll slowly start seeing more reasonable republicans attempting to deal with the LePage problem as well. Senator Katz of Augusta and Rep. Patrick Flood of Winthrop both have already shown real leadership in this area. We only need more to follow to keep Maine and Mainer’s safe until the 2014 elections.
As long as ignorant, arrogant folks like Alfond and Berry, who for some unexplained reason are allowed to be mouthpieces for Maine’s Dems, are allowed to butt heads with the buffoon LePage nothing is going to get done that benefits the citizens of Maine. I’ve yet to see any senate Dem that is willing to put the well being of Maine citizens ahead of party politics but fortunately the House has Cain who seems to be more interested in solving problems than party ideology. If Dems want to hold on to their majority in 2014 they might do well to kick folks like Alfond and Berry to the curb and follow Cain’s lead.
Also amazing what Tim Lajoie did in Lewiston. Wow!
http://undercoverporcupine.bangordailynews.com/2012/11/09/politics/lewiston-republican-chair-to-resign-over-conflict-in-principles/
When will we EVER see a “reasonable democrat”???
Seems to em the only republicans you Leftist like is one that caves on his values and supports every liberal wet dream you guys come up with!
Bipartisanship means republicans always cave!
I think you’ve touched precisely upon the major problem between the parties. That’s the tendency of many on both sides to attempt (as you have here) to paint the other as crazy people who can’t be reasoned with. Both sides will always have to give to make progress. At the moment the public is telling the GOP/Tea Party to “give” a little more or face even more harsh consequences in 2014. I’m not sure I’ve seen “the party of no” cave for the past four years but I think it’s pretty clear that the majority of Americans would like them to stop doing what they’ve been doing…or should I say not been doing??? At the moment I don’t think I care what the GOP/Tea Party does. They’re so weakened now it probably doesn’t matter. If they stay on the same track they’ve been on, oh well, elections do seem to have their consequences.
Another dynamic to the situation, as evidenced by the travesty Tuesday last, is that the dems have successfully erased a balanced 2 party system. Ethics be damned, by promising more & more free stuff to illegals, chronic welfarers, unions & other takers, the dems have enlisted millions more voters than have repubs. The one party system the dems have created by enabling the takers has not served anyone’s interest, because it can’t. Be careful what you wish for, your one party system is not the answer.
Please try to keep in mind that when you say “Democrats have created an unbalance in government” you’re actually referring to the “electorate/citizens” of Maine and the Nation. Most everything else you present is referencing all the extreme/bad policies promoted by many of the leaders of the GOP/Tea Party. All of which was pretty clearly JUST rejected by the majority of the voters. My advice, if you’ll take it is to try and modify what your pushing to be just a tad bit more appealing to a nation that as a whole seems to believe that “people” really do mean more than self.
You are doing just what you accuse the governor of! Maybe a little proof-reading next time would be in order! I guess the pain of losing that election is too much for libs – they are all still crying.
This past election proves Maine people are led easily.. How can we expect anyone to deal with real issues when the passion of the voters is social issues.. uneducated voters needs to be addressed. If you haven’t read the constitution of the united states and passed a test about it, you should not be able to vote. Plain and simple. uneducated voters is being polite.
Though I understand your sentiment, I respectfully disagree. People have a right to be ignorant, not understand the process or the issues or simply react from their gut or even vote because they like a persons name. There have been societies that have tried to adjust people thinking patterns. Those usually end up with reeducation camps.
Interesting. You do do realize that every naturalized citizen would automatically be able to vote, right?
Because the caucuses punish their maverick members who think critically and act independently I do not think they will ever be able to overcome a strong Independent candidate. I for one want to see the power of the caucus diminished and will vote Independent whenever such a candidate speaks to my concerns and displays the character needed to represent the best of Maine.
We can all chip in and buy Angus a wall charger for his Scooter as he tools around DC. The poor old feller was born before WW II. You Mainers really like new ideas, digging out a playbook from 20 ears ago. He still has the same 1970s mustache!
1970s mustache?
Now “Thats” a real reason to trash someones ability !!!
A budget bill can be passed with a simple majority, provided it is enacted 90 days prior to the beginning of the 2014 fiscal year. So Democrats can pass a budget with a simple majority vote if done so prior to 1 April; after that, in order for it to take effect in time, a budget would have to be an emergency bill, requiring a 2/3 majority.
No doubt about it, Maine is a VERY Democrat state. Sure, we talk a big line about ‘Yankee ingenuity’, self-sufficiency, fiscal responsibility and the like, but when it comes right down to it, we’re just another welfare state full of those that would rather take than earn. It’s impossible for anyone talking personal responsibility to make headway against the promise of free everything.
Maine is also a state grounded in hate – hatred of anything and everyone that doesn’t tote the Liberal, far-Left line. That is why Maine will never be anything more than it is now, just another two-bit state, a follower never a leader.
Sad but true! Just a quick read of the comments on any subject here proves that out.
You’re right we have a two bit dictator as Gubor now, but don’t worry we will be dumping him in favor of progress in the near future. My guess, he will quit and flee to Florida, like a spoiled brat that can’t get his own way.
Longley was an arse. I was going to U of M at the time of his administration, he cut, cut, cut until we had no chairs left in the classrooms and the sizes of the classes were consolidated and overflowed the room so students were forced to sit out on the floor in the hall with the door open so they could hear the lectures. Yeah we don’t need to go back to that mentality.