Trick-or-treaters in parts of the Northeast might find themselves collecting snowflakes this weekend along with candies.
That’s Northeast as in northern New England and far upstate New York, the National Weather Service said. And Buffalo, too — when doesn’t that city have snow?
There shouldn’t be panic yet. No one is forecasting a repeat of the Halloween storm of 2011, which left 6 inches of snow in New York City and knocked out power to about 2.3 million customers.
Instead, it looks like a few flakes, and maybe some of it will stick. It’s too early for an official accumulation forecast, said Margaret Curtis, a weather service meteorologist in Gray, Maine. The European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts model called Tuesday for 5 inches of snow across northern New England and a coating in Boston, according to WSI in Andover, Massachusetts.
It probably won’t be enough to move the natural gas markets. Still, the words “snow,” “Northeast” and “accumulation” will all get used in the same sentence this week, meaning we’ll be forced to face an unpleasant truth for another year.
“Winter is coming, whether we like it or not,” Curtis said by telephone.
There’s already snow elsewhere in the U.S. Chicago received a trace on Oct. 4, the weather service said. As of Oct. 28, snow covered about 2.3 percent of the 48 contiguous states and a small part of Canada, according to estimates from the National Operational Hydrologic Remote Sensing Center in Chanhassen, Minnesota.
Most of that is west of the Mississippi River. There’s a bit up on Mount Washington in New Hampshire, the highest point in the six-state New England region. But that’s a little like saying there’s snow in Buffalo.
The prospect looking out the window and seeing flakes floating by may give some people pause. It probably shouldn’t this time, if the forecasts hold.
“If it comes early enough, people think, ‘Oh, it’s going to be a long, cold, snowy winter,’” said Gary Best, a meteorologist at Hometown Forecast Services Inc. in Nashua, New Hampshire. “But that doesn’t necessarily mean it’s going to be the case.”
After this system passes through, there doesn’t look like any snow on the horizon for a few weeks.
The prospect of snow for even part of the region that includes about 55.8 million people, or about 19 percent of the U.S. population based on 2010 Census Bureau estimates, won’t be enough to give natural gas markets a shove.
“The problem is, it’s an abbreviated system,” said Teri Viswanath, director of commodities strategy at BNP Paribas SA in New York.
After the storm, temperatures are set to rise, said Viswanath, who pays attention to forecasts.
The low temperature in Boston on Oct. 31 may be 44 degrees Fahrenheit, 2 degrees above normal, according to AccuWeather Inc. in State College, Pennsylvania.
Another consideration for gas markets is location. New England doesn’t rate much in natural gas circles because of the region’s heavy fuel oil use.
If cold were to drop into the Midwest, that would be a different story.
“A cold or warm Midwest will make or break your natural gas prices,” Viswanath said.
Give it time.