Predicting who will and who won’t win an Oscar each year is as much fun as actually watching the ceremony. The Academy Awards, set to air on ABC at 8 p.m. Sunday, Feb. 22, always bring a fair share of gripes, snipes and should-haves. We asked five Mainers who are experts on contemporary film — in general and more specifically on what films Maine fans like — to answer five questions about the Oscars and the films nominated this year. Here are their responses. What do you agree or disagree with?
Our experts:
Ken Eisen, founder, Maine International Film Festival, Shadow Distribution and Railroad Square Cinema, Waterville
Sarah Ruddy, executive director, Strand Theatre, Rockland
Robin Jones, film program director, Grand Theatre, Ellsworth
Chris Vincenty, co-owner and programmer, Reel Pizza Cinerama, Bar Harbor
Ben Fowlie, executive director, Camden International Film Festival
What films or individuals do you think will win in their categories?
Eisen: I don’t much like predictions. All you can do is look bad when you’re not right, you know? Having said that, I think Julianne Moore will win best actress for “Still Alice” and “Citizenfour” will win for best documentary.
Ruddy: I do think Patricia Arquette will win best supporting actress for “Boyhood,” and I am rooting for her. I’d also like to see “Citizenfour” win for best doc, and I think it will. And I feel pretty strongly about “Timbuktu” winning the foreign language film category.
Jones: For best picture, “Selma.” Best animated feature film, “Big Hero 6.” Best documentary goes to “Virunga.” And best foreign film, “Ida.”
Vincenty: I think best picture will go to “Boyhood,” though I think it’s overrated. If you want to see something better on the same subject, try British director Michael Apted’s “7 Up” series. In the foreign film category, the powerhouse “Leviathan” is almost guaranteed to win.
Fowlie: For best picture, “Birdman,” which will also get best cinematography. Best actor will go to Michael Keaton. Best actress will go to Julianne Moore. Best director goes to Richard Linklater. For documentary, “Citizenfour,” and for short documentary, “Joanna,” which is easily one of the most moving films I have ever experienced in my more than 10 years at CIFF. We screened it last fall. If you ever have a chance to see it, please do.
What won’t win, but should?
Eisen: “The Tale of the Princess Kaguya” should win for best animated film. I hope that one of the three genuinely great films — “Timbuktu,” “Ida” and “Wild Tales” — nominated for best foreign film will win in a year in which the Academy finally got it right.
Ruddy: “Whiplash” for best picture and J.K. Simmons for best supporting actor. And this is probably something better kept to myself, but I would love to see “Lost Stars” from “Begin Again” win for best song. I won’t be weeping like when those folks from “Once” won — but still.
Jones: “Boyhood” for best picture. As great as “Selma” is, no other film — “Birdman” included — raised the bar for cinematic storytelling.
Vincenty: The film I think should win but hasn’t got a chance is “The Grand Budapest Hotel.” In animation, I think “Big Hero 6” will take the Oscar, but the real winner is “The Tale of Princess Kaguya.” This masterwork from the legendary Studio Ghibli takes the idea of animated film to new heights of perfection.
Fowlie: “Boyhood” should win for best picture. “CitizenFour” — this film could go either way. I’d also be very, very happy if “Virunga” picks up best doc, a very worthy debut feature from a talented new voice in documentary. It took home our Best Doc Award at CIFF 2014.
Which films or individuals do you feel were unfairly snubbed?
Eisen: Too many to list as always, but the two meager nominations for P.T. Anderson’s “Inherent Vice” sure aren’t enough. And Jim Jarmusch’s “Only Lovers Left Alive” arguably was the best film of the year and the best he ever made, along with “Dead Man.”
Ruddy: I am the world’s biggest Miles Teller fan, and I would have loved to have seen him nominated for “Whiplash.” Ava DuVernay for best director for “Selma.” “Snowpiercer” had some beautiful design elements I was disappointed didn’t get recognized, including production design, sound editing/mixing and cinematography.
Jones: The obvious answer here is Ava DuVernay, David Oyelowo and Carmen Ejogo, the director and stars of “Selma.” It’s obvious because it is true and is the literal definition this year for the phrase “unfairly snubbed at the Oscars.” You could make an argument for “The Lego Movie” for animated film, but my 9-year-old son beat you to it.
Vincenty: With all the talk of the Oscars being the “whitest” in recent history, the most obvious snub is Ava DuVernay, director of “Selma.” Two other films I thought were overlooked are “Interstellar” for best picture, and in the foreign language category, Sweden’s “Force Majeure” was for my money was one of the best films I have seen this year.
Fowlie: Ava Duvernay for best director for “Selma,” and David Oyelowo for best actor. And “The Overnighters” for best doc.
What were your favorite films of 2014, regardless of genre?
Eisen: “Only Lovers Left Alive,” “Timbuktu,” “Ida,” “Wild Tales,” “Inherent Vice,” “Birdman,” “The Tale of the Princess Kaguya” and “Dhoom 3.”
Ruddy: “Snowpiercer,” “Whiplash,” “Love is Strange.” Strand audiences absolutely adored “Chef” and came back to see it again and again. “Only Lovers Left Alive,” “Starred Up,” “Bird People,” “Advanced Style,” “Beneath the Harvest Sky.”
Jones: “The Lego Movie,” “The Grand Budapest Hotel,” “Captain America: The Winter Soldier,” “Boyhood,” “Birdman,” “Guardians of the Galaxy,” “Life Itself,” “Selma” and “Inherent Vice.”
Vincenty: “Force Majeure,” “Calvary,” “Land Ho,” “Pride” and “Tim’s Vermeer.”
Fowlie: I watch a lot of docs, so I’ll start there: “Virunga,” “Citizenfour,” “The Return to Homs,” “The Overnighters,” “Guidelines” and “Joanna.” For non-docs, “Boyhood” and “A Girl Walks Home At Night.”
What do you do for Oscar night?
Eisen: Having been to it, which is even more boring than watching it at home, I generally try to avoid it. And it’s really easy to do that here, where it will be overdubbed into Spanish, which I really don’t understand. [Eisen is in South America for the month of February]
Ruddy: There’s a really fun viewing party we throw every year at the Strand, complete with a red carpet. I think what’s the coolest about big nights such as the Oscars is sharing the experience with a big group of people who are all excited about the same thing.
Jones: I stay at home, open a bottle of champagne and live tweet anything that occurs to me without thinking it through. You can follow me at @yourmrjones if this feels like a good use of your time. The answer may not surprise you.
Vincenty: Reel Pizza hosts a yearly Oscar Night Gala that benefits a local nonprofit. This year, it’s the Jesup Memorial Library in Bar Harbor. There’s a pre-show at 6 p.m. with local hosts from ImprovAcadia, champagne, hors d’oeuvres, a red carpet, games and a contest with prizes for formal wear and movie-themed costume. At 7:30, the broadcast comes up, the ballots are collected and the official ceremony begins. There’s a grand prize for the most correct ballot. Tickets are $15.
Fowlie: I’m predicting a snowstorm, so I will likely stay home and watch from my couch and wait for that one category I’m most interested in: best documentary.
