Several Maine policymakers like to look to neighboring New Hampshire for examples of how Maine can grow and improve its economy. More realistic lessons can be learned by looking north, instead.
In a lengthy article last March about the decline of the Canadian Maritime provinces, the Globe and Mail of Toronto offered a how-to guide of sorts for policymakers, applicable on both sides of the border. Three of the country’s eastern provinces — New Brunswick, Nova Scotia and Prince Edward Island — have much in common with Maine: an aging population, few immigrants and a resistance to change. The result is stagnation while much of the rest of Canada flourishes.
“The demographic and economic spiral has reached the point that, if we don’t grab hold of the situation now, there is a reasonable question to be posed of whether we can turn it around,” Ray Ivany, president of Acadia University and chair of a commission put together by the government of Nova Scotia in 2012, told the Globe and Mail.
Sound familiar?
Without 60,000 new arrivals in the next 20 years, Maine essentially is doomed, former state economist Charles Colgan warned in 2013. “People assume that if we could just keep our young people here, it would solve the problem,” he said. “There are not half enough of them because not enough young people are born here. We have to get people from other places to move here. We’ve got to get more people in.”
What to do to avoid such doom? After speaking with professors and the head of a conservative think tank in the Maritimes, the Globe and Mail came up with “Five Rules for Saving the Maritimes.” At least four, in some way, apply to Maine as well.
1. “Maritimers must understand that Ottawa never was and cannot be the solution to the region’s problems. If anything, an excessive reliance on federal support has made things worse.”
Mainers like to think of themselves as ruggedly independent, but Maine is well above average for its dependence on federal support, largely payments for health care for the elderly and poor. Maine ranked 41st for dependency in 2015, with 50 being the highest, according to Wallet Hub. Maine received $1.58 for every $1 paid by residents in federal taxes.
2. “Only a healthy private sector will attract workers, encourage immigration and keep the young at home. Governments must craft policies that encourage businesses large and small to locate, stay and grow.”
This is the flip side of rule No. 1 but also a bit of a chicken-or-egg proposition. Yes, private businesses create jobs, but they need to be able to hire people, which is a problem as Maine’s workforce shrinks. As Colgan said, Maine must attract 3,000 new residents in each of the next 20 years to sustain the state’s workforce.
3. “While there are economic opportunities in the rural economy … real growth will come from cities. Halifax, especially, could once again be a major hub, and Nova Scotia should target every available dollar at encouraging its growth. By thriving, the city will lift the entire region.”
Change Halifax to Portland, and this rule easily applies to Maine. Greater Portland already accounts for more than half of Maine’s economic output, and nearly a third of the state’s sales tax revenue comes from the region. One-third of the state’s jobs are in Greater Portland, which also is where much of the state’s limited population growth is occurring.
Yet Gov. Paul LePage has become increasingly hostile to Portland, where only 20 percent of the population voted for him, and its environs. Last month, LePage wrote to a constituent from Cape Elizabeth who asked him to resign: “You live in the south who exploit those who are not so fortunate, or understand the level of corruption that southern Mainers ignore and welcome!”
4. “Although the notion of Maritime union is deeply unpopular, the provinces must work to eliminate non-tariff barriers to the free movement of people and goods throughout the region, similar to the internal economic union that B.C., Alberta and Saskatchewan have fashioned.”
OK, maybe this one isn’t really applicable.
5. “Most important of all, they must aggressively recruit immigrants, to slow the aging of the population while injecting new energy and ideas.”
Prince Edward Island has worked hard to attract immigrants, who now account for 10 percent of the province’s population. As a result, the Globe and Mail reported, its employment growth is at the national average, while New Brunswick and Nova Scotia lag behind.
Further evidence of the need for Maine to adopt an open arms policy.
