Canadians have just elected as prime minister a Liberal, Justin Trudeau, after 31 years that featured the rise of Canadian neoliberalism under a series of Conservative and Liberal party administrations that ended with the defeat of Conservative Prime Minister Stephen Harper (2006-2015).
Before Harper, Canadians experienced the short-lived administration of Prime Minister John Turner (1984) who held office for 79 days before losing to Conservative leader Brian Mulroney (1984-1993). Mulroney was followed by Jean Chrétien (1993-2003), who reclaimed power for the Liberals on paper. In practice, Chrétien accelerated the momentum toward free-market neoliberalism with the implementation of the North American Free Trade Agreement. Subsequently, the minority government of Liberal Prime Minister Paul Martin (2003-2006) allowed Conservatives to shift the neoliberal engine into second gear. But now the tightening of interdependent relations with the United States that much of the Canadian business sector and the Harper administration engineered seems to be coming to an end.
Contrary to the conclusions drawn by Ian Bremmer of Time magazine, Cyrus Sanati of Fortune and other media sources, Trudeau will lead a more nationalist and interventionist government willing to use deficit spending to stimulate Canada’s economy while seeking a more independent role at the bilateral level with the U.S. Trudeau also will implement a multilateral foreign policy by restoring Canada’s foregone support for the United Nations, its reputation for diplomacy and peacekeeping and a generally conciliatory tone in international relations, all of which Harper disdained and discontinued.
Unlike Harper, Trudeau will honor longstanding Liberal Party policy (as in Vietnam and Iraq) by refusing to join or endorse U.S. initiatives he deems unilateral and ill-advised. Also unlike Harper, who strove to protect western Canada’s oil industry, Trudeau will work with other national leaders on climate change. His cabinet choices suggest that Canada may become more rather than less activist than the U.S. in reducing carbon emissions. At the same time, Trudeau will gradually shift Canada from the neoliberal policies that led the nation to its current recession.
Trudeau believes in free trade and open market capitalist policies, but he is willing to tweak the economic and trade relations with NAFTA and other free trade deals like the recently negotiated Trans-Pacific Partnership so that they benefit not just corporate Canada but workers and consumers as well.
Contrary to what has been indicated by the American press, his objective is not to mend the U.S.-Canadian relationship because it was never broken in the first place. The fact that Harper chose to pressure the Obama administration on the Keystone XL Pipeline issue by siding with the U.S. Republican Party did not lead to “troubled” bilateral relations, as Bremmer asserts. It represented a political strategy, one that is now under revision with the new administration, now that the Obama administration has publicly rejected the initiative under the premise that it is “not in the country’s national security interest.”
As indicated by Sanati, Trudeau knows that this is an unbalanced relationship, but we argue that it remains one that if negotiated correctly could eventually produce positive results for both nations. After all, Trudeau’s objective is to rebuild a bilateral relationship for the “common good.” As he indicated Friday, “the Canada-U.S. relationship is much bigger than any one project.”
These bilateral negotiations will depend on the outcome of the U.S. presidential elections in 2016. Trudeau’s commitment to slash taxes for the middle class, raise taxes on the top 1 percent, legalize marijuana for recreational purposes, boost government spending, advance pro-immigrant legislation, enforce social responsibility, advocate religious and political freedom, promote cultural diversity and equal opportunity, and strengthen pro-abortion legislation will pair well with a Democrat in the White House. But if a Republican is elected the bilateral relationship will take a different tone, forcing Trudeau to negotiate differently. This happened in the past when his father, Pierre-Elliott Trudeau, was in power and Ronald Reagan was elected president in 1981.
One thing is clear: Trudeau’s majority government will allow his Liberal Party to advance its federal and provincial agendas, as well as its trade and other policy agendas with the U.S.
All in all, the new Trudeau government will change Canada’s domestic and international policies in a major way. Americans should watch closely as Canada restores a more interventionist approach to its economy and a more nationalist and multilateral approach to international relations.
Stefano Tijerina is an adjunct assistant professor in History and Political Science at the University of Maine, an adjunct assistant professor in the School of Business at Husson University and director of the Peace and Justice Center of Eastern Maine. Howard Cody is Emeritus Professor of Political Science and Canadian Studies at UMaine.