KENNEBUNK, Maine — A recently completed enrollment projections report shows that the overall student population in RSU 21 may not be declining as quickly as projected, and has left school officials wondering if the scheduled renovations to Kennebunk High School will be enough to meet the needs of the community in the next several years.
Superintendent Katie Hawes said the bottom line is that although the study still reflects a decline in enrollment overall in the district in coming years, the numbers are higher than district officials thought they would be. The report also does not factor in three key variables that could have a significant impact on enrollment, Hawes told the School Board at last week’s meeting.
“Many families move into our district in upper elementary school, maybe due to socioeconomics, I’m not sure, and it also doesn’t take into account any enrollment from students from Thornton Academy Middle School or the high school given the fact that our 10 year agreement is expiring this year with TAMS. So those will impact our enrollment, and we think our updated facilities will also impact our enrollment,” Hawes said.
Hawes said she met with real estate agent Randall Simon, from Berkshire Hathaway Home Services in Kennebunk, and he agreed that once Kennebunk High School is renovated, the district will be more attractive to families looking to relocate.
“He felt that once we get our high school to where it needs to be, we will likely see more families who are looking at similar communities, select this community, so he agreed with us on that,” she said.
Hawes said the Masters Facilities Committee will be looking closely at the study along with the outside factors in to coming months.
Board member Mike Mosher pointed out that the current enrollment at KHS is 674 and one projection for the next school year puts enrollment at 803, which is a big jump. Hawes said the 803 figure reflects all Arundel high school students going to KHS. She said there are three projected numbers, one with all Arundel students in grades nine through 12, one with none of the Arundel students, and another with the current number of 34 carried forward.
“We will fall somewhere in between there,” Hawes said. “This is very much crystal ball work.”
Hawes said the renovations passed in June for KHS include room for 700 students in instructional space and 750 for common areas.
Hawes said the district saw a drastic decline in Arundel high school enrollment when Mildred Day School went from a K-8 school to a K-5 school because once students started at TAMS they continued on to high school there. She said they hope that they hope students will choose to stay in district now that the TAMS contract is up, and will continue to KHS.
“We want every single one of those students if we can get them,” Hawes said. “They’ve begun with us, we’ve invested a lot in them [grades] K through 5 and we’d love to keep them.”
Hawes said that for budgeting and planning purposes, the district will aim for April 15 to get a “firm commitment” from Arundel students.
Board members Lionel Menard and Jeff Cole expressed concerns over the declines in K through 5 projections reflected in the study.
“My bigger concern is regarding the K through 5 projections going from 1,100 to 1,000 in 2018-19 which is only a few years away, and then it drops again,” Menard said. “If they’re correct, I don’t see a pool of kids for the elementary schools.”
Hawes said in an interview following the meeting that the study factors in a 10 percent variable which in a district of roughly 2,500 students could equal plus or minus 250 kids.
“That’s a big difference,” Hawes said. “There are nuances to these three communities that aren’t in the numbers, so we just want to be thoughtful about this.”
Cole said with an enrollment drop of 75 students just this past year, he urged the Masters Facility Committee to “use these projections carefully, and possibly look a little unconventionally at usage of space.”
“We have a difficult economy in this state and we are in an area that is very high priced for new families to come into,” Cole said. “The demographic coming in are the over 60 year old crowd, looking at retirement, with the means to afford to live here, and they are coming from away.”
Hawes said the district is committed to maintaining an elementary school in every town, “so the question is KES and Sea Road and what does that look like, those are the things we will be looking closely at.”
Hawes said the Master Facilities Committee will talk about projections and different options and may discuss things like collaborating with the town to lease a wing of Sea Road School to the town.
Board chair Maureen King told board members that the 74-page enrollment projection study “is a document we are probably going to dog-ear quite a bit over the next six months or so.”
The Master Facilities Committee is a 10-person committee that meets monthly in the board room at KES from 5 to 6:30 p.m. The meetings are open to the public and the next meeting is scheduled for Nov. 18.