In preparation for my predictions for 2016, I thought I should honor my loyal readers by going back and doing what critics say pundits never do: seeing how well I did on my predictions for 2015, published in this space on Dec. 31 of last year. To my surprise, some of them came true. Alas, not necessarily the happy ones.
Here are those predictions from a year ago and my evaluations of them a year later.
1. I predicted Bashar Assad would still be in power and that the Iraqi regime would not be able to do very much to reduce its territorial losses. True.
2. I predicted the price of Bitcoins would not rise significantly against the dollar. This is sort of true: The price fluctuated quite a bit in 2015 but wound up about where it started.
3. I predicted Magnus Carlsen would lose the chess championship to Fabiano Caruana. False. I had my dates crossed. I will stick with the prediction but push it into 2016.
4. I predicted “The Force Awakens” would have a “Star Trek” Easter egg and an extra in some scene with Vulcan ears. I’ve seen the film twice, and I will confess this one didn’t come true.
5. I predicted high-tech valuations would turn out to be a bubble, because startups, even those with great products, would have a harder and harder time gaining the attention of busy consumers.
6. I predicted my beloved Washington R-word football team would endure another losing season and finally change its name. I was flat wrong. To the surprise of pretty much everyone, the team is in the playoffs and winning seems, through some media magic, to have reduced the pressure on the league to persuade the franchise to become the Bravehearts.
7. I predicted that overreach by both political parties in 2015 would lead to lower voter turnout in 2016 and that commentators will blame not the parties but the voters. I was right about the overreach, so I’m sticking with this one.
8. I predicted “The Walking Dead” would continue its remarkable ratings dominance and that the ratings for “Mad Men,” in the show’s final season, would continue to fall. True.
9. I predicted colleges and universities would find new ways to stifle dissent, even as they denied doing any such thing. True.
10. I predicted the globe would not grow measurably warmer in 2015 and that those of us who consider climate change an urgent issue would be thrown on the defensive.
11. In sports, I predicted the San Francisco Giants would not make it back to the World Series, that no team from the Eastern Conference would win the championship of the National Basketball Association and that colleges and universities would continue to profit handsomely from the uncompensated services of student athletes. All easy predictions — and all true.
12. I predicted the news media would continue to misreport statements by Pope Francis as great departures from Catholic doctrine when they’re not. True.
13. I predicted “Bridge of Spies” would be the sleeper hit of the year. A great film, but its domestic box office gross didn’t even reach the top 30.
14. I predicted Amazon would fix the security hole for playing video that requires the entry of the PIN on the television screen instead of on the keypad. False. No fix. (Come on, Amazon.)
15. I predicted ESPN would not fix the glitch making it impossible, when following a professional football game online, to see the plays from the current drive. Clicking the “drive” button displays only the last play, not the entire drive. True. No fix. (Come on, ESPN.)
16. I predicted that the deep divisions in New York City following the murder of two police officers late last year would begin to heal. I’d have to evaluate this one as jury-still-out.
In case you haven’t been keeping score, the totals come to eight true, five false and three impossible to evaluate. How did you do with yours?
Coming on New Year’s Eve: my predictions for 2016.
Bloomberg View columnist Stephen L Carter is a law professor at Yale University.