Steven Biel: Tuesday night, we saw Republicans Ande Smith and Mark Holbrook debate who will have the honor of being destroyed by Chellie Pingree in the fall. Smith is the establishment pick — well spoken, staffed by Olympia Snowe and Mitt Romney alums, and with an attractive mix of outsider credentials and moderate positions (at least on a couple issues). But in today’s GOP, you can never bet against the biggest right-wing loon in the race, and that’s why Mark Holbrook could be the one to watch.
Lance Dutson: The 1st Congressional District is a perpetual source of depression for Maine Republicans. And this year seems to be another disappointing run. Ande Smith is by far the better candidate. He’s reasonably presentable and seems a whole lot more reality-focused than Mark Holbrook.
Steven: Smith is clearly the more electable candidate. He’s pro-choice. He hasn’t completely signed up for the Trump Muslim ban. Unlike Holbrook, he doesn’t think that people with mental illness should be able to get concealed carry permits. And he can raise money, which, like it or not, is a prerequisite for political relevance in America today. And even if Smith can’t beat Pingree, a spirited showing could put him on the map for a future run and help the southern Maine Republicans you need to hold your state Senate majority.
Lance: Unfortunately, right out of the gate, Smith made some foolish choices that will have to be walked back. He told a debate audience in Sanford this week that he doesn’t “believe in multiculturalism” because foreign cultures lead to terrorism. That’s an inexplicably wrongheaded statement, particularly in a state and district where French Canadian culture is such a proud part of our history. These kinds of mistakes are fixable, though, and it’s important they get fixed fast. Because even if Pingree is a shoo-in for re-election, we should be able to contrast our candidates against her in a way that helps the team overall.
Steven: I think that’s right. And I probably shouldn’t admit this, but there are plenty of people even in the People’s Republic of Portland who are willing to vote for a reasonable non-racist, non-sexist, non-transphobic Republican. I mean, we don’t really like paying taxes either. But before Ande can worry about Chellie, he needs to deal with Holbrook. And that won’t be easy, because your voters want to ban Muslims. They love the wall. And they believe it when Trump says Mexicans are rapists and murderers.
Lance: Race-baiting demagoguery has definitely been the drug of choice for the GOP base lately. Trump proved that.
Steven: That’s why I think this race is worth paying attention to. It’s a case study for the complete crack-up of the Republican Party and it might end up being a lot closer than casual observers think. The GOP has been selling your voters a poisonous stew of dog-whistle racism and anti-science know-nothing-ism for years, and now relatively mainstream candidates like Smith are losing primaries because they believe in evolution and don’t completely deny the existence of global warming.
Lance: OK, but let’s keep this in perspective. Chellie Pingree is one of the most fringe members of the U.S. House. While District 1 voters worry about their jobs, she’s obsessing about pink slime and GMO labeling. While Pingree is worrying about what pair of Birkenstocks she’ll wear to the Common Ground Fair, workers at Bath Iron Works, Pratt & Whitney and other manufacturers in Maine are worried about keeping their jobs because she keeps voting against their contracts. Republicans have a winning message for CD1 if they can focus on what matters to the district and not what plays best to the talk-radio base.
Steven: Now, that’s a cheap shot. The Common Ground Fair is fun for the whole family, and Chellie is far too classy for Birkenstocks! But seriously, none of that matters if a well-funded, establishment-backed Republican can’t beat an End Times believer.
Lance: I’ve pretty much retired from trying to predict Republican primaries. But I know from experience that your point is well taken: candidates who seem incapable of holding the office are ending up as the GOP nominees more and more. A reasonable person who engages both of these guys may think Ande’s the easy winner, but we’re living in Paul LePage’s Maine now, and nothing is a sure thing anymore.
Steven Biel is former campaign director for MoveOn.org and president of the Portland-based political consulting firm Steven Biel Strategies. Lance Dutson, a principal of Red Hill Strategies, is a Republican communications consultant. He has served on the campaign teams of U.S. Sens. Susan Collins and Kelly Ayotte, as well as the Maine Republican Party.